• Tag Archives lockdowns
  • ‘Laissez-Faire’ Sweden Had the Lowest Mortality in Europe From 2020–2022, New Analysis Shows

    Gore Vidal once said “I told you so” are the four most beautiful words in the English language.

    Perhaps this is why it’s difficult to resist sharing new data that show how Sweden’s much-maligned pandemic response was right after all.

    For those who’ve forgotten, Sweden was excoriated by corporate media and US politicians for its lighter-touch Covid-19 strategy. Many were downright hostile to the Swedes for refusing to shutter schools, lock down businesses, and ramp up police to enforce mandates.

    Here’s a sample of headlines:

    • “Why the Swedish Model for Fighting COVID-19 Is a Disaster” (Time, October 2020).

    • “The Inside Story of How Sweden Botched Its Coronavirus Response” (Foreign Policy, December 2020).

    • “Sweden Stayed Open and More People Died of Covid-19, but the Real Reason May Be Something Darker” (Forbes, 2020).

    • “Sweden Has Become the World’s Cautionary Tale” (New York Times, July 2020).

    • “I Just Came Home to Sweden. I’m Horrified by the Coronavirus Response Here” (Slate, April 2020).

    This is just a taste of the reactions against Sweden in 2020. By opting to allow its 10 million citizens to continue living relatively normal lives, Sweden was, in the words of The Guardian, leading not just Swedes but the entire world “to catastrophe.”

    Even then-president Trump got in on the action of smacking Sweden around.

    “Sweden is paying heavily for its decision not to lockdown,” the tweeter-in-chief warned.

    Despite the foreboding rhetoric, the worst-case predictions for Sweden never materialized. In fact, they were not even close.

    In March 2021, it was apparent that Sweden had a lower mortality rate than most European nations. The following year, Sweden boasted one of the lowest mortality rates in Europe.

    By March 2023, Sweden had the lowest excess death rate in all of Europe, according to some data sets. And though some weren’t ready to admit that Sweden had the lowest excess mortality in all of Europe, even the New York Times, which had mocked Sweden’s pandemic strategy, conceded that the nation’s laissez-faire approach was hardly the disaster many had predicted.

    More recently, Danish economist Bjørn Lomborg shared a statistical analysis based on government data from all European countries from January 2020 to August 2022. The study demonstrated that Sweden had the lowest cumulative age-standardized mortality rate in all of Europe in that period.

    “Across Europe, Sweden saw [the] lowest total death during and after Covid,” Lomborg said on X (formerly Twitter).

    Lomborg’s analysis provides yet more evidence that the Covid state was a disaster.

    Some will say, How could we have known?

    The harsh truth is that some of us did know. In March 2020, I warned that government “cures” for Covid-19 were likely to be worse than the disease itself. The following month, I argued that Sweden’s laissez-faire policy was likely to be a more effective policy than the hardline approach favored by other nations.

    I wrote these things not because I’m a prophet, but because I’ve read a bit of history and understand basic economics.

    History shows that collective responses during panics tend not to end well, and economist Antony Davies and political scientist James Harrigan explained why near the beginning of the pandemic.

    “In times of crisis, people want someone to do something, and don’t want to hear about tradeoffs,” the authors noted. “This is the breeding ground for grand policies driven by the mantra, ‘if it saves just one life.’”

    The thing is, tradeoffs are real. Indeed, economics is largely a study of them. When you choose one thing, you give up another; and we evaluate outcomes based on what we get versus what we gave up. We call this opportunity cost.

    Throughout most of the pandemic, however, there were those who didn’t want to pay any attention to opportunity costs or the unintended consequences of government lockdowns—and they were legion.

    This is the great economic fallacy Henry Hazlitt warned of decades ago.

    Hazlitt, the author of Economics in One Lesson, claimed that overlooking the secondary consequences of policies accounted for “nine-tenths” of the economic fallacies in the world.

    “[There is] a persistent tendency of men to see only the immediate effects of a given policy,” he wrote, “and to neglect to inquire what the long-run effects of that policy will be.”

    This was the fatal flaw—quite literally—of the Covid state. Its engineers didn’t realize they were not saving lives, but trading lives (to borrow a turn of phrase from Harrigan and Davies).

    Lockdowns weren’t scientific and proved ineffective at slowing the spread of Covid, but even if they had worked, they came with severe collateral damage: cancer screenings plummeted, drug use surged, learning was lost, and global poverty exploded. Depression and unemployment skyrocketed, businesses went bankrupt, and high inflation arrived. Babies were denied heart surgery because of travel restrictions, youth suicides increasedthe list goes on and on.

    The dark truth is that lockdowns were not based on science and came with a rather unfortunate side effect: they killed people.

    The secondary consequences of lockdowns and other non-pharmacological interventions (NPIs) did irreparable harm to humans that will be experienced for decades to come.

    In the words of New York magazine, lockdowns were “a giant experiment” that failed.

    Sweden’s top infectious disease expert, Anders Tegnell, was one of the few people to understand that lockdowns would probably not work. And though Tegnell is not a professional economist, he seemed to understand the lesson of secondary consequences better than many economists.

    “The effects of different strategies, lockdowns, and other measures, are much more complex than we understand today,” he told Reuters in 2020, when his strategy was under fire.

    By understanding this basic economic principle and having the courage to stand by his convictions, Tegnell was able to avoid the pernicious effects of lockdowns, a policy that seduced so many central planners.

    Today, many more people in Sweden are alive because of it. And Anders Tegnell should not be shy in saying, “I told you so.”


    Jon Miltimore

    Jonathan Miltimore is the Editor at Large of FEE.org at FEE.

    This article was originally published on FEE.org. Read the original article.


  • The Atrocious Ethics of Fauci’s Lockdown Defense

    On February 7, 1968, after American military forces rained rockets, napalm, and bombs on the village of Ben Tre in South Vietnam, killing hundreds of civilians, Associated Press reporter Peter Arnett quoted a military officer’s justification of the event.

    “It became necessary to destroy the town to save it,” a US major was quoted as saying.

    Arnett, a Pulitzer Prize-winning reporter who’d go on to become one of the last western journalists in Saigon until its capture in 1975, never revealed the source of the quote, which some US officials doubted was authentic. Nevertheless, the quote—which eventually morphed into the pithier “We had to destroy the village in order to save it”—became a symbol of an absurd military strategy in a failed war.

    While the reasoning is absurd—destroying a town is no way to save it—the ethics that underpin the quote are surprisingly common and convey a simple and popular idea: a wrong, evil, or unjust action can be morally justifiable because it ultimately brings about a greater good.

    The latest public official to employ such reasoning is Dr. Anthony Fauci, who recently offered this justification for the government’s pandemic response, which included lockdowns, widespread business closures, and other “draconian” public policies.

    “You have to do something that’s rather draconian, and sometimes when you do draconian things, it has collateral negative consequences,” the National Institutes of Health director explained. “Just like when you shut things down, even temporarily, it does have deleterious consequences on the economy, on the school children, you have to make a balance.”

    Fauci, who in August announced his intention to retire before the end of the year, continued:

    “We know the only way to stop something cold in its tracks is to try to shut things down. If you shut things down just for the sake of it, that’s bad. But if you do it for the purpose to regroup and open up in a safe way, that’s the way to do it.”

    Fauci’s phrasing in this last part—that lockdowns are the only way “to stop something cold in its tracks”—is odd because it’s clear that lockdowns did no such thing. The official data plainly show the virus circulated and people died regardless of the presence of lockdowns and other non-pharmaceutical interventions. Not only was the virus not stopped “cold in its tracks,” an abundance of research shows lockdowns do little to reduce virus spread and Covid mortality.

    But let’s put aside the empirical results of lockdowns and analyze the ethics Fauci uses to justify them, particularly his use of the word “draconian,” which means “excessively harsh and severe.”

    The word traces back to the Greek legislator Draco (or Drakon) who in about 621 B.C. laid out the very first written Athenian constitution. As you can probably guess, these laws were quite harsh. Those who fell into debt were forced into slavery to their creditors, for example (unless one was of noble birth), while those caught stealing were sentenced to death, even if it was something as simple as a head of cabbage from the marketplace.

    “It is said that Drakon himself, when asked why he had fixed the punishment of death for most offenses, answered that he considered these lesser crimes to deserve it, and he had no greater punishment for more important ones,” the historian Plutarch wrote.

    One can see how Draco earned title to an adjective that means “excessively harsh and severe,” which is what makes Fauci’s invocation of this term so troubling. Draco’s treatment of petty criminals was harsh and excessive, but at least punishment was meted out against people convicted of crimes.

    Fauci, on the other hand, is defending “draconian” public policies that harm innocent people. During the pandemic, people were arrested for leaving their homes, driving their cars, paddling a boat, or going to a park. Moreover, Fauci admits these draconian policies also had other “deleterious consequences.” These included mental health deterioration, record drug overdoses, systemic fraud of taxpayers, millions of jobs lost, increased self-harm (especially among teenage girls), and more.

    Despite these consequences, Dr. Fauci has consistently defended lockdowns, insisting that the draconian policies served a greater good.

    Justifying actions not on their morality but on their potential outcomes is a dangerous philosophy for individuals, because it allows humans to rationalize their actions—even evil ones. The great Russian author Fyodor Dostoevsky demonstrates this well in his classic novel Crime and Punishment, which centers on a young idealist named Raskolnikov who justifies killing an unprincipled old woman who works as a pawnbroker because it would lift him from poverty and allow him to become a great man, and perform great deeds for humanity.

    While pursuing a greater good instead of acting ethically is dangerous individual philosophy, history shows it’s far more dangerous collectively.

    “Many of the most monstrous deeds in human history have been perpetrated in the name of doing good—in pursuit of some ‘noble’ goal,” noted the great thinker and FEE founder Leonard Read.

    Read was right, and the examples are ubiquitous.

    When Franklin Rooseveltt issued Executive Order 9066 in February 1942, which led to the internment of more than 100,000 Japanese-American men, women, and children, virtually everyone conceded it violated the Bill of Rights, including FDR’s own Attorney General Francis Biddle. The order was carried out anyway, however, because it was seen as serving a greater good: winning World War II.

    Forced sterilization policies and government experiments on prisoners and unsuspecting subjects, including the notorious MKUltra Project and the Tuskegee Study, were also clearly ethically bankrupt, but they were carried out nevertheless because each served a “greater purpose”—scientific progress and the creation of “purer” gene pools.

    It’s an objective truth that many of the greatest atrocities of the twentieth century—from Hitler’s Final Solution to Mao’s Great Leap Forward to the Killing Fields of Cambodia—were ushered in by governments violating the individual rights of civilians for a greater good: a better collective society.

    This is precisely why Read said one of the greatest philosophical mistakes people make is to judge the ends they seek, not the means they use.

    “Ends, goals, aims are but the hope for things to come…They are not a part of the reality,” Read explained in Let Freedom Reign. “Examine carefully the means employed, judging them in terms of right and wrong, and the end will take care of itself.”

    This is the great and grave mistake made by Dr. Fauci. He failed to distinguish ends from means. Like the Army major who told Peter Arnett it was necessary “to destroy the town to save it,” Fauci rationalized a draconian action to pursue a greater good—and caused irreparable harm to the American people and Constitution as a result.

    It’s never too late to learn from a mistake, however.

    Indeed, even the people of Ancient Greece saw that Draco’s constitution was deeply flawed, and most of his laws were repealed by the Athenian statesman Solon (630–560 B.C.) the following century.

    Let us hope Americans learn a similar lesson.

    This article was adapted from an issue of the FEE Daily email newsletter. Click here to sign up and get free-market news and analysis like this in your inbox every weekday.


    Jon Miltimore

    Jonathan Miltimore is the Managing Editor of FEE.org. His writing/reporting has been the subject of articles in TIME magazine, The Wall Street Journal, CNN, Forbes, Fox News, and the Star Tribune.

    Bylines: Newsweek, The Washington Times, MSN.com, The Washington Examiner, The Daily Caller, The Federalist, the Epoch Times.

    This article was originally published on FEE.org. Read the original article.


  • New Study Provides Yet More Evidence That COVID Lockdowns Didn’t Work

    Two years into the COVID-19 pandemic, even alarmist government officials like Dr. Anthony Fauci have admitted that it’s time to learn to live with the virus rather than disrupt our ordinary lives. In recent months, there has been a concentrated shift among our elected officials and expert class attempting to “move on” from the pandemic—perhaps because the policy decisions they made have aged so terribly. 

    Yet another comprehensive study was just released showing that the drastic lockdowns (“stay-at-home orders”) enacted in many US states did not meaningfully reduce COVID-19 mortality. Economists Casey P. Mulligan, Stephen Moore, and Phil Kerpen ran the numbers to rank all 50 states on COVID mortality, economic performance, and pandemic education outcomes (based on how much they were able to keep schools open). 

    The results show that despite their drastic, sometimes-lethal second-order consequences, government lockdowns did not meaningfully reduce COVID-19 mortality.

    “Excluding the geographically unusual cases of Hawaii and Alaska to focus on the continental U.S., there is no apparent relationship between reduced economic activity during the pandemic and our composite mortality measure,” the authors conclude. 

    While one can find outliers in either direction, the data for the individual states analyzed in this paper support this general conclusion.

    Florida, for example, was much-maligned for its hands-off approach to the pandemic. 

    “Florida Man Leads His State to the Morgue,” a New Republic headline blared.

    “How did Florida get so badly hit by Covid-19?” asked the BBC. 

    “Ron DeSantis Plays Disaster Politics as Florida Again Reels From Coronavirus,” thundered US News.

    Yet as the Wall Street Journal editorial board noted, Florida ranked 6th overall, 3rd for educational outcomes, 13th for economic outcomes, and 26th—pretty middle-of-the-pack—for COVID mortality. (Despite having a disproportionately elderly population!)

    California, meanwhile, ranked 40th for its economic outcomes and 50th for education outcomes because it so heavily restricted its economy and kept its schools closed for so long. However, it ranked 27th for COVID mortality, marginally worse than Florida despite all the lockdown damage California inflicted on itself. 

    New York and New Jersey fared similarly dismally. 

    There were some states, like Hawaii, where drastic lockdowns did correspond with excellent COVID-19-related outcomes. However, they were exceptions to the norm, and can often be explained by other factors. (Like Hawaii being, you know, a series of islands). 

    This is hardly the first study to reach the conclusion that lockdowns didn’t work. 

    Consider, for example, a comprehensive literature review examining relevant studies published by Johns Hopkins University in February. It found that despite their drastic costs, “lockdowns have had little to no effect on COVID-19 mortality.”

    Why? Well, other research also found that the most COVID spread occurred, paradoxically, at home. (Making “stay-at-home” orders tragically counterproductive). 

    But the real reason lockdowns failed is much more fundamental. Lockdowns failed because they were rooted in extreme hubris, a deadly arrogance from policymakers who believed that if they simply wielded enough concentrated power they could stop the spread of an uber-contagious virus. They decided to play God, and that decision proved disastrous. 

    The Greek philosopher Socrates once said that “True wisdom comes to each of us when we realize how little we understand about life, ourselves, and the world around us.” 

    Lockdown politicians should have heeded this ancient advice. Because, as yet another study just showed, their arrogance imposed drastic costs on citizens while failing to achieve better results. 


    Brad Polumbo

    Brad Polumbo (@Brad_Polumbo) is a libertarian-conservative journalist and Policy Correspondent at the Foundation for Economic Education.

    This article was originally published on FEE.org. Read the original article.