{"id":28104,"date":"2021-11-30T22:04:59","date_gmt":"2021-12-01T03:04:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.megalextoria.com\/wordpress\/?p=28104"},"modified":"2021-11-30T22:06:32","modified_gmt":"2021-12-01T03:06:32","slug":"they-said-inflation-would-be-transitory-the-data-say-something-different-foundation-for-economic-education","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.megalextoria.com\/wordpress\/index.php\/2021\/11\/30\/they-said-inflation-would-be-transitory-the-data-say-something-different-foundation-for-economic-education\/","title":{"rendered":"They Said Inflation Would Be &#8216;Transitory.&#8217; The Data Say Something Different."},"content":{"rendered":"<p><a href=\"\/wordpress\/index.php\/2021\/11\/30\/they-said-inflation-would-be-transitory-the-data-say-something-different-foundation-for-economic-education\/inflation_2\/\" class=\"attachment wp-att-28106 keychainify-checked\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/wordpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/11\/inflation_2-1024x539.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"802\" height=\"422\" class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-28106\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.megalextoria.com\/wordpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/11\/inflation_2-1024x539.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/www.megalextoria.com\/wordpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/11\/inflation_2-300x158.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.megalextoria.com\/wordpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/11\/inflation_2-768x404.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.megalextoria.com\/wordpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/11\/inflation_2-228x120.jpg 228w, https:\/\/www.megalextoria.com\/wordpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/11\/inflation_2.jpg 1200w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 802px) 100vw, 802px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>President Joe Biden once <a class=\"keychainify-checked steem-keychain-checked\" href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/restoring-america\/courage-strength-optimism\/we-need-a-little-more-milton-friedman-right-about-now\" rel=\"nofollow\">bizarrely remarked<\/a> on the 2020 campaign trail, \u201cMilton Friedman isn\u2019t running the show anymore.\u201d It shows.<\/p>\n<p>Earlier this month, the Labor Department reported that the CPI rose at its fastest rate since 1990: 0.9 percent for the month of October and 6.2 percent year over year\u2014faster than <a class=\"keychainify-checked steem-keychain-checked\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nationalreview.com\/news\/inflation-surges-in-october-surpassing-31-year-high\/\" rel=\"nofollow\">Wall Street consensus estimates<\/a> of 0.6 percent and 5.9 percent, respectively.<\/p>\n<p>Perhaps most telling, <a class=\"keychainify-checked steem-keychain-checked\" href=\"https:\/\/news.yahoo.com\/biden-says-inflation-top-priority-162420272.html\" rel=\"nofollow\">the acceleration in prices<\/a> still clocks in at 0.6 percent monthly when the volatile food and energy categories are excluded, suggesting inflation is here to stay. Astute observers might notice that the 0.9 percent monthly change in CPI represents faster inflation than earlier this year, and that if current trends continued for one year, next October\u2019s annual price increase would be 10.8 percent. These figures, quite frankly, obliterate any notion that our inflation is \u201ctransitory\u201d or trivial. In response, the president declared inflation his \u201ctop priority.\u201d Judging by the administration\u2019s economic agenda, this only spells more trouble.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><iframe loading=\"lazy\" width=\"560\" height=\"315\" title=\"YouTube video player\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/7IRKf_-c61Y\" frameborder=\"0\" allowfullscreen=\"allowfullscreen\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p>Most of our economic Brahmins in Washington have misdiagnosed the causes of the current inflation crisis. Watching the chattering classes or browsing through center-left websites, one deduces that there is great consensus among the intelligentsia on who is to blame: you. You buy too much, expect it too quickly, are too dependent on complicated supply chains, and have not adequately respected COVID safety measures, thus ensuring that the virus continues to disrupt the economy. Just lower your expectations, as the <em>Washington Post <\/em><a class=\"keychainify-checked steem-keychain-checked\" href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/opinions\/2021\/10\/18\/dont-rant-about-short-staffed-stores-supply-chain-woes-try-lower-expectations\/?utm_source=twitter&amp;utm_campaign=wp_main&amp;utm_medium=social\" rel=\"nofollow\">opines<\/a><\/p>\n<p>Missed in this analysis is the fact that the worst of COVID has been over for quite some time in the United States, and almost all states have eased or eliminated their COVID-related lockdowns and the shuttering of factories and stores. To the extent that the current inflation may be attributable to a virus with a death rate of <a class=\"keychainify-checked steem-keychain-checked\" href=\"https:\/\/www.forbes.com\/sites\/brucelee\/2020\/09\/26\/what-is-the-death-rate-for-covid-19-coronavirus-what-this-study-found\/?sh=2444d05c4672\" rel=\"nofollow\">0.5 &#8211; 1 percent<\/a> (reported\u2014many people had the virus and never reported it), it is attributable to the unintended consequences of government overreaction\u2014businesses that no longer exist, knowledge no longer employed, human capital lost, higher compliance and transactional costs, etc. Meanwhile, blaming the American consumer is what Frederick Douglass would call \u201can old dodge.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>In the 1970s, Presidents Nixon, Ford, and Carter all contended that <a class=\"keychainify-checked steem-keychain-checked\" href=\"https:\/\/fee.org\/articles\/how-inflation-drinks-your-milkshake\/\" data-toggle=\"popover\">inflation<\/a> was to varying degrees due to overconsumption, or excessive demand, and plans like Ford\u2019s \u201cWhip Inflation Now\u201d (WIN, ironically) encouraged Americans to reduce their consumption of goods and services to beat inflation, ignoring the fact that obtaining goods or services at high prices is often better than not obtaining them at all in the name of low prices.<\/p>\n<div style=\"clear: both;\">\n<div id=\"om-fqmeg7lcejd7fy5oro5r-holder\">\n<\/div>\n<div id=\"om-lxkcubhhqwmdm0lkjkbp-holder\">\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p>Ronald Reagan lambasted this line of thinking in his 1980 debate with Jimmy Carter when he asked, \u201cWhy is it inflationary to let the people keep more of their money and spend it the way they\u2019d like and it isn\u2019t inflationary to let [President Carter] take that money and spend it the way he wants?\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Our current policymakers could use a similar chastening.<\/p>\n<p>Although unspeakable for many mainstream economic thinkers and policymakers, the proximal cause of our accelerating inflation is obvious: massive money printing to fund surging government spending. Since the pandemic\u2019s onset, the American people saw multiple rounds of direct stimulus payments, increased unemployment benefits, unprecedented bailouts of businesses (small and large) across the country as well as states and municipalities, and we saw another $1.2 trillion in infrastructure spending when President Biden signed the Bipartisan Infrastructure Framework, or \u201cBIF.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>The deluge has been so tremendous that many funds from the last stimulus bill are still unspent. The last two years have seen over $5 trillion in new government spending. Whatever the effect of COVID lockdowns and misallocation of human and physical capital from sweeping orders is doing to exacerbate inflation, the current level of government spending is the elephant in the room. Yet the administration proposes a new elephant breeding program, in the form of expanded government spending, as the solution. The president urges Congress to pass the \u201cBuild Back Better\u201d social spending package of $1.75 trillion (on paper\u2014the real cost is likely to far exceed that figure), which will help \u201c<a class=\"keychainify-checked steem-keychain-checked\" href=\"https:\/\/fee.org\/articles\/will-bidens-build-back-better-plan-really-reduce-inflation\/\" rel=\"nofollow\" data-toggle=\"popover\">fight inflation<\/a>.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Such magical thinking will not stand up to the next few months\u2019 inflation data, and the American people must demand an end to this madness. Government created this inflationary crisis. It could end it tomorrow by reversing the Federal Reserve\u2019s easy money policies, removing barriers to free trade, and shutting off the spigot of its own reckless spending\u2014which is spurs the money pumping.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">I\u2019m not holding my breath for that outcome, but the American public is waking up to the threat of inflation and its causes. Libertarians and economic conservatives should call out the cause of this crisis loudly and often. At this rate, Milton Friedman might be unbeatable in 2024.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><iframe loading=\"lazy\" width=\"560\" height=\"315\" title=\"YouTube video player\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/jmmfT0JnvPc\" frameborder=\"0\" allowfullscreen=\"allowfullscreen\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n<div>\n<h5><a class=\"keychainify-checked steem-keychain-checked\" href=\"http:\/\/fee.org\/people\/nathan-j-richendollar\/\"><br \/>\nNathan J. Richendollar<br \/>\n<\/a><\/h5>\n<p>Nathan Richendollar is a summa cum laude economics and politics graduate of Washington and Lee University in Lexington, VA. He lives in Southwest Missouri with his wife Bethany and works in the financial sector.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p style=\"font-style: italic;\">This article was originally published on FEE.org. Read the <a href=\"https:\/\/fee.org\/articles\/they-said-inflation-would-be-transitory-the-data-say-something-different\/\" class=\"keychainify-checked\">original article<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>President Joe Biden once bizarrely remarked on the 2020 campaign trail, \u201cMilton Friedman isn\u2019t running the show anymore.\u201d It shows. Earlier this month, the Labor Department reported that the CPI rose at its fastest rate since 1990: 0.9 percent for the month of October and 6.2 percent year over year\u2014faster than Wall Street consensus estimates of 0.6 percent and 5.9 percent, respectively. Perhaps most telling, the acceleration in prices still clocks in at 0.6 percent monthly when the volatile food and energy categories are excluded, suggesting inflation is here to stay. Astute observers might notice that the 0.9 percent monthly change in CPI represents faster inflation than earlier this year, and that if current trends continued for one year, next October\u2019s annual price increase would be 10.8 percent. These figures, quite frankly, obliterate any notion that our inflation is \u201ctransitory\u201d or trivial. In response, the president declared inflation his \u201ctop priority.\u201d Judging by the administration\u2019s economic agenda, this only spells more trouble. Most of our economic Brahmins in Washington have misdiagnosed the causes of the current inflation crisis. Watching the chattering classes or browsing through center-left websites, one deduces that there is great consensus among the intelligentsia on who is [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":28106,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-28104","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.megalextoria.com\/wordpress\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/28104","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.megalextoria.com\/wordpress\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.megalextoria.com\/wordpress\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.megalextoria.com\/wordpress\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.megalextoria.com\/wordpress\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=28104"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.megalextoria.com\/wordpress\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/28104\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.megalextoria.com\/wordpress\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/28106"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.megalextoria.com\/wordpress\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=28104"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.megalextoria.com\/wordpress\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=28104"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.megalextoria.com\/wordpress\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=28104"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}