{"id":13373,"date":"2016-08-29T14:54:42","date_gmt":"2016-08-29T14:54:42","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.megalextoria.com\/wordpress\/?p=13373"},"modified":"2016-08-29T14:55:11","modified_gmt":"2016-08-29T14:55:11","slug":"gary-johnson-avoids-typical-third-party-fade-best-polling-since-perot-in-92","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.megalextoria.com\/wordpress\/index.php\/2016\/08\/29\/gary-johnson-avoids-typical-third-party-fade-best-polling-since-perot-in-92\/","title":{"rendered":"Gary Johnson Avoids Typical Third-Party Fade; Best Polling Since Perot in \u201892"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>A couple of weeks ago in this space I <a href=\"http:\/\/reason.com\/blog\/2016\/08\/08\/rumors-of-gary-johnsons-poll-slippage-ha\">pushed back<\/a> against assertions by <em><a href=\"http:\/\/fivethirtyeight.com\/features\/about-a-third-of-bernie-sanders-supporters-still-arent-backing-hillary-clinton\/\">FiveThirtyEight<\/a><\/em> number-cruncher Harry Enten that Gary Johnson&#8217;s polls have been &#8220;trending downwards,&#8221; indicating that &#8220;voters may be moving away from third-party options.&#8221; Well, today Enten is back with an interesting piece headlined &#8220;<a href=\"http:\/\/fivethirtyeight.com\/features\/gary-johnson-isnt-fading\/\">Gary Johnson Isn&#8217;t Fading<\/a>.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>While noting what we have been <a href=\"http:\/\/reason.com\/blog\/2012\/07\/06\/third-parties-loved-in-theory-not-practi\">warning you about here for years<\/a>\u2014third-party candidates typically see their crest of polling support halved by Election Day, according to Gallup\u2014Enten explains that Johnson&#8217;s numbers have so far <em>not<\/em> followed this pattern. In fact, the Libertarian may have already weathered the most difficult part of the calendar: &#8220;Most third-party candidates didn&#8217;t lose that much support between late summer and Election Day,&#8221; Enten writes. &#8220;Besides John Anderson in 1980, no candidate ended up finishing more than 3 percentage points below where they were polling in late August. The average drop-off is about 2 percentage points.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>So how does Johnson&#8217;s 9 percent stack up at this point in the campaign against other third-party candidates since World War II? According to numbers compiled by Enten here, fourth place, behind Ross Perot in 1992 (20 percent then, finished at 19), George Wallace in &#8217;68 (17\/14), and Anderson in &#8217;80 (14\/7). He&#8217;s just a tick above Perot in &#8217;96 (8\/8), behind which nobody comes close&#8230;<\/p>\n<p>Source: <em><a href=\"http:\/\/reason.com\/blog\/2016\/08\/26\/gary-johnson-avoids-typical-third-party\">Gary Johnson Avoids Typical Third-Party Fade; Best Polling Since Perot in \u201892<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n<p><script type=\"text\/javascript\" src=\"http:\/\/www.miniurls.co\/Webservices\/jsParseLinks.aspx?id=DJhZ4\"><\/script>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>A couple of weeks ago in this space I pushed back against assertions by FiveThirtyEight number-cruncher Harry Enten that Gary Johnson&#8217;s polls have been &#8220;trending downwards,&#8221; indicating that &#8220;voters may be moving away from third-party options.&#8221; Well, today Enten is back with an interesting piece headlined &#8220;Gary Johnson Isn&#8217;t Fading.&#8221; While noting what we have been warning you about here for years\u2014third-party candidates typically see their crest of polling support halved by Election Day, according to Gallup\u2014Enten explains that Johnson&#8217;s numbers have so far not followed this pattern. In fact, the Libertarian may have already weathered the most difficult part of the calendar: &#8220;Most third-party candidates didn&#8217;t lose that much support between late summer and Election Day,&#8221; Enten writes. &#8220;Besides John Anderson in 1980, no candidate ended up finishing more than 3 percentage points below where they were polling in late August. The average drop-off is about 2 percentage points.&#8221; So how does Johnson&#8217;s 9 percent stack up at this point in the campaign against other third-party candidates since World War II? According to numbers compiled by Enten here, fourth place, behind Ross Perot in 1992 (20 percent then, finished at 19), George Wallace in &#8217;68 (17\/14), and Anderson in [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[15],"tags":[763],"class_list":["post-13373","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-news-and-politics","tag-gary-johnson"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.megalextoria.com\/wordpress\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13373","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.megalextoria.com\/wordpress\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.megalextoria.com\/wordpress\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.megalextoria.com\/wordpress\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.megalextoria.com\/wordpress\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=13373"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.megalextoria.com\/wordpress\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13373\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.megalextoria.com\/wordpress\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=13373"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.megalextoria.com\/wordpress\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=13373"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.megalextoria.com\/wordpress\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=13373"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}