Path: utzoo!utgpu!water!watmath!clyde!rutgers!ucla-cs!zen!ucbvax!KL.SRI.COM!MANDEL From: MANDEL@KL.SRI.COM (Thomas F. Mandel) Newsgroups: comp.society.futures Subject: Re: Forecasts '87 and beyond ("Flying Boom") Message-ID: <12359290000.18.MANDEL@KL.SRI.COM> Date: 17 Dec 87 22:47:40 GMT Sender: daemon@ucbvax.BERKELEY.EDU Organization: The ARPA Internet Lines: 23 Steve Hix (concertina!fiddler@sun.com) critisizes the forecast of an inexpensive airplane in every garage... This is not so far-fetched or absurd as it might seem. If you interpret such airplanes to include all sorts of new kinds of flying craft from hot air balloons to hang gliders to low-powered aircraft (derived from hang gliders), it is entirely possible to see widespread existence of such personal recreational technology within the foreseeable future. In every garage, no. But as commonplace as, say, recreational vehicles, yes. In a futures study I did for the Bureau of Land Management in the 1970s, we identified new kinds of personal flying equipment as very likely to boom during the then-next 20 years. I'm still quite comfortable with that projection. --Tom Mandel mandel@kl.sri.com [My views, of course, and not necessarily my employers...] -------