Relay-Version: version B 2.10 5/3/83; site utzoo.UUCP Path: utzoo!linus!genrad!mit-eddi!smh From: smh@mit-eddi.UUCP (Steven M. Haflich) Newsgroups: net.flame Subject: Re: re: scott preece on 55mph Message-ID: <291@mit-eddi.UUCP> Date: Thu, 23-Jun-83 21:47:12 EDT Article-I.D.: mit-eddi.291 Posted: Thu Jun 23 21:47:12 1983 Date-Received: Fri, 24-Jun-83 22:09:38 EDT References: utcsstat.707 Lines: 26 FLAME FLAME FLAME FLAME "the statistics I have ... " What statistics? Where from? It wasn't even clear from your posting which conclusion you were drawing: 1) The same number of people will be killed if more or less everyone drives 75 as 55, or 2) Chances of being killed in a crash are about the same if one crashes from 75 as from 55. The first "conclusion" might stand somehow -- arguments about number of driving hours increasing have already appeared on the net -- although I doubt it. The second "conclusion" is very strange. You doubt that the curve relating liklihood of injury/death per accident and speed is smooth? Whatever the shape of the ciurve, it is unlikely to be particularly discontinuous! The question is whether there is a significant difference between 55 and 70 or 75. Again, the old engineering terminology -- "finding the knee in the curve" -- comes to mind. You might at least make clear which of the two assumptions you are flaming^H^H^H^H^H^H^Hsupporting (sic). But remember, the distance you travel after deciding to panic stop (or whatever) goes up (in first order approximation) with the SQUARE of speed (or rate of velocity, or speed of rate of integral d^2x/dt^2, or...). Try typing "scale=4 \n (70/55)^2" at bc some time. Steve Haflich genrad!mit-eddie!smh