Relay-Version: version B 2.10 5/3/83; site utzoo.UUCP Path: utzoo!linus!genrad!decvax!cca!ima!johnl From: johnl@ima.UUCP Newsgroups: net.math Subject: Re: Speaking of random numbers.... - (nf) Message-ID: <346@ima.UUCP> Date: Fri, 17-Jun-83 18:40:01 EDT Article-I.D.: ima.346 Posted: Fri Jun 17 18:40:01 1983 Date-Received: Sat, 18-Jun-83 16:38:51 EDT Lines: 21 #R:ihuxi:-44100:ima:16700001:000:827 ima!johnl Jun 17 11:57:00 1983 WRT the Illinois lottery: Unfortunately, it is also easy to show that if the probability of winning the grand prize is p, if you play the game 1/p times, you have a 50% chance of not having won the prize yet! Not quite. That formula assumes that the chances of winning on each play are independent. In lotto games you get to pick your own numbers, so they are not. You could (assuming your grocery store had 1.9 million entry forms) bet on all possible combinations and win the grand prize, as well as all of the subsidiary prizes, too. I suspect that this doesn't happen because people with $2 million to invest and a phenomenally large pencil (to fill out all of those lotto forms) are few and far between. John Levine, decvax!yale-co!jrl, ucbvax!cbosgd!ima!johnl, {research|allegra|floyd|amd70}!ima!johnl