{"id":4162,"date":"2013-10-08T17:48:51","date_gmt":"2013-10-08T17:48:51","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/megalextoria.wordpress.com\/?p=4162"},"modified":"2013-10-08T17:48:51","modified_gmt":"2013-10-08T17:48:51","slug":"pay-no-attention-to-the-bad-data","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/www.megalextoria.com\/wordpress\/index.php\/2013\/10\/08\/pay-no-attention-to-the-bad-data\/","title":{"rendered":"Pay No Attention to the Bad Data"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>A close reading of some of the key passages shows that it cannot bear the weight of the sensationalized parts of the SPM, at least as rendered in the media. One of the most misleading aspects of this story is the way in which the SPM conveys a \u201c95 percent confidence\u201d or certainty of its findings, as though this figure represented a rigorous or robust test familiar to first-year students of statistical correlation. The IPCC\u2019s methodology behind these conclusions is thoroughly opaque. When you strip away the fog, the IPCC admits these conclusions are \u201cqualitative,\u201d and based essentially on a poll of the self-selecting participants in the IPCC review process itself.<\/p>\n<p>This is like polling the Romney campaign staff about how confident they are their candidate will win the election, and representing it as\u00a0the firm \u201cconsensus\u201d of all political scientists. The IPCC\u2019s main report finally admits that the methodology for their confidence calibrations is derived from social science, and that \u201cconfidence should not be interpreted probabilistically, and it is distinct from \u2018statistical confidence.\u2019\u2009\u201d You won\u2019t see this admission reflected in any of the breathless news reports about the IPCC\u2019s high confidence of our future doom.<\/p>\n<p>via <a href=\"http:\/\/www.megalextoria.com\/politics\/?x=entry:entry131008-214445\">Pay No Attention to the Bad Data\u00a0<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>A close reading of some of the key passages shows that it cannot bear the weight of the sensationalized parts of the SPM, at least as rendered in the media. One of the most misleading aspects of this story is the way in which the SPM conveys a \u201c95 percent confidence\u201d or certainty of its findings, as though this figure represented a rigorous or robust test familiar to first-year students of statistical correlation. The IPCC\u2019s methodology behind these conclusions is thoroughly opaque. When you strip away the fog, the IPCC admits these conclusions are \u201cqualitative,\u201d and based essentially on a poll of the self-selecting participants in the IPCC review process itself. This is like polling the Romney campaign staff about how confident they are their candidate will win the election, and representing it as\u00a0the firm \u201cconsensus\u201d of all political scientists. The IPCC\u2019s main report finally admits that the methodology for their confidence calibrations is derived from social science, and that \u201cconfidence should not be interpreted probabilistically, and it is distinct from \u2018statistical confidence.\u2019\u2009\u201d You won\u2019t see this admission reflected in any of the breathless news reports about the IPCC\u2019s high confidence of our future doom. via Pay No Attention to [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[15],"tags":[446,791,916],"class_list":["post-4162","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-news-and-politics","tag-climate-change","tag-global-warming","tag-ipcc"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.megalextoria.com\/wordpress\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4162","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.megalextoria.com\/wordpress\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.megalextoria.com\/wordpress\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.megalextoria.com\/wordpress\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.megalextoria.com\/wordpress\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=4162"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"http:\/\/www.megalextoria.com\/wordpress\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4162\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.megalextoria.com\/wordpress\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=4162"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.megalextoria.com\/wordpress\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=4162"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.megalextoria.com\/wordpress\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=4162"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}