Path: utzoo!utgpu!water!watmath!clyde!att!osu-cis!tut.cis.ohio-state.edu!bloom-beacon!glacier.UUCP!jbn From: jbn@glacier.UUCP (John B. Nagle) Newsgroups: comp.ai.digest Subject: Re: Grand Challenges Message-ID: <19880927032345.3.NICK@INTERLAKEN.LCS.MIT.EDU> Date: 27 Sep 88 03:23:00 GMT Sender: daemon@bloom-beacon.MIT.EDU Organization: The Internet Lines: 38 Approved: ailist@ai.ai.mit.edu ---- Forwarded Message Follows ---- Return-path: <@AI.AI.MIT.EDU:ailist-request@AI.AI.MIT.EDU> Received: from AI.AI.MIT.EDU by ZERMATT.LCS.MIT.EDU via CHAOS with SMTP id 196698; 26 Sep 88 02:18:20 EDT Received: from BLOOM-BEACON.MIT.EDU (TCP 2224000021) by AI.AI.MIT.EDU 26 Sep 88 02:26:01 EDT Received: by BLOOM-BEACON.MIT.EDU with sendmail-5.59/4.7 id; Mon, 26 Sep 88 02:03:49 EDT Received: from USENET by bloom-beacon.mit.edu with netnews for ailist@ai.ai.mit.edu (ailist@ai.ai.mit.edu) (contact usenet@bloom-beacon.mit.edu if you have questions) Date: 26 Sep 88 05:33:07 GMT From: glacier!jbn@labrea.stanford.edu (John B. Nagle) Organization: Stanford University Subject: Re: Grand Challenges Message-Id: <17736@glacier.STANFORD.EDU> References: <123@feedme.UUCP> Sender: ailist-request@ai.ai.mit.edu To: ailist@ai.ai.mit.edu The lesson of the last five years seems to be that throwing money at AI is not enormously productive. The promise of expert systems has not been fulfilled (I will refrain from quoting some of the promises today), the Japanese Fifth Generation effort has not resulted in any visible breakthroughs (although there are some who say that its real purpose was to divert American attention from the efforts of Hitachi and Fujitsu to move into the mainframe computer business), the DARPA/Army Tank Command autonomous land vehicle effort has resulted in vehicles that are bigger, but just barely able to stay on a well-defined road on good days. What real progress there is doesn't seem to be coming from the big-bucks projects. People like Rod Brooks, Doug Lenat, and a few others seem to be makeing progress. But they're not part of the big-science system. I will not comment on why this is so, but it does, indeed, seem to be so. There are areas in which throwing money at the problem does work, but AI may not be one of them at this stage of our ignorance. John Nagle