Relay-Version: version B 2.10 5/3/83; site utzoo.UUCP
Path: utzoo!mnetor!uunet!seismo!rochester!cornell!uw-beaver!mit-eddie!bloom-beacon!think!ames!lll-lcc!pyramid!thirdi!sarge
From: sarge@thirdi.UUCP (Sarge Gerbode)
Newsgroups: sci.philosophy.tech
Subject: Re: The nature of knowledge (probabilities)
Message-ID: <64@thirdi.UUCP>
Date: Tue, 21-Jul-87 01:13:20 EDT
Article-I.D.: thirdi.64
Posted: Tue Jul 21 01:13:20 1987
Date-Received: Wed, 22-Jul-87 05:47:22 EDT
References: <3587e521.44e6@apollo.uucp> <680@gargoyle.UChicago.EDU>
Reply-To: sarge@thirdi.UUCP (Sarge Gerbode)
Distribution: world
Organization: Third Eye Software, Palo Alto, CA
Lines: 31
Keywords: knowledge belief truth certainty
Summary: Acquisition of more knowledge changes probabilities.

In article <2099@mulga.oz> lee@mulga.UUCP (Lee Naish) writes:
>
>Suppose each page of the book was simply a list of 100 numbers
>which (should) add up to 1000.  Suppose also that the book source
>was on-line and with the appropriate tools all the numbers added
>by the computer and the result was 349999.  The probability of there
>being an error is extremely high (say 0.999).  What do you believe is
>the probability of an error on any given page?  If you say 1/350 then
>the probability of an error in the book should be, according to
>simple probability theory, 1-(349/350)^350 = 0.63.  If you say 10/350
>(or whatever is needed to get the 0.999 figure) then the expected
>number of errors greatly increases (which I think is unreasonable).
>
>How can this paradox be resolved without admitting inconsistent
>beliefs?

When you did the computer check, you introduced additional data that changed
the probability picture.  The probability before the check was one in 350;
after the check, it was 1/1000.  The main error was the changing of the time
parameter, allowing for the introduction of new knowledge.  People change their
beliefs frequently.  That doesn't mean that their beliefs are subjectively
inconsistent at any given time.  The interposition of time is, perhaps, the
only thing that allows for the holding of conflicting beliefs.
-- 
"Absolute knowledge means never having to change your mind."

Sarge Gerbode
Institute for Research in Metapsychology
950 Guinda St.
Palo Alto, CA 94301
UUCP:  pyramid!thirdi!sarge