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From: cliff@rlgvax.UUCP
Newsgroups: sci.philosophy.tech
Subject: Re: The nature of knowledge (probabilities)
Message-ID: <556@rlgvax.UUCP>
Date: Tue, 21-Jul-87 11:11:36 EDT
Article-I.D.: rlgvax.556
Posted: Tue Jul 21 11:11:36 1987
Date-Received: Thu, 23-Jul-87 01:37:51 EDT
References: <3587e521.44e6@apollo.uucp> <680@gargoyle.UChicago.EDU> <64@thirdi.UUCP>
Organization: Computer Consoles Inc, Reston VA
Lines: 31
Keywords: knowledge belief truth certainty

In article <64@thirdi.UUCP>, sarge@thirdi.UUCP (Sarge Gerbode) writes:
> In article <2099@mulga.oz> lee@mulga.UUCP (Lee Naish) writes:
> >Suppose each page of the book was simply a list of 100 numbers
> >which (should) add up to 1000.  Suppose also that the book source
> >was on-line and with the appropriate tools all the numbers added
> >by the computer and the result was 349999.  The probability of there
> >being an error is extremely high (say 0.999).  

I didn't see the original posting, so perhaps I'm missing something.

But if they are *supposed* to add up to 350000, then (if we trust our
automated summation) it is *certain* that if instead they add up to
34999, then there is an error *somewhere*.  Therefore the probability of
there being an error *somehwere in the book* is 1, not .999. 

> >What do you believe is
> >the probability of an error on any given page?  If you say 1/350 then
> >the probability of an error in the book should be, according to
> >simple probability theory, 1-(349/350)^350 = 0.63.  If you say 10/350
> >(or whatever is needed to get the 0.999 figure) then the expected
> >number of errors greatly increases (which I think is unreasonable).

What about multiple offsetting errors on different pages (e.g.  p.  10
adds up to 1002, p.  11 to 999, all others correct)? I don't think that
there's any basis to make any other statementes besides Pr(error
somewhere in book)=1. 
-- 
O----------------------------------------------------------------------->
| Cliff Joslyn, Computer Consoles Inc., Reston, Virgnia, but my opinions.
| UUCP: ..!seismo!rlgvax!cliff
V All the world is biscuit shaped