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From: henry@utzoo.UUCP (Henry Spencer)
Newsgroups: can.politics
Subject: Re: Make the rich pay? - no, the middle class, as usual.
Message-ID: <7443@utzoo.UUCP>
Date: Sat, 20-Dec-86 23:02:40 EST
Article-I.D.: utzoo.7443
Posted: Sat Dec 20 23:02:40 1986
Date-Received: Sat, 20-Dec-86 23:02:40 EST
References: <2819@watdcsu.UUCP>
Organization: U of Toronto Zoology
Lines: 47

> ...  I seriously doubt that they
> could occupy North America, in view of the trouble they have with a
> mickey-mouse country like Afghanistan, which is much closer and doesn't
> involve crossing any oceans.  I don't think a large standing army is
> needed, just a populace that is willing to put up a fight.

Afghanistan is hardly a mickey-mouse country, given the temperament of the
inhabitants.  And while Afghanistan is certainly giving the Soviets a
lot of trouble, it's worth noting that the Afghans are suffering pretty
severely for it.  It's not clear to me that North Americans love their
freedom and democracy, as opposed to safety and prosperity, enough to live
with the sort of crackdowns and punitive measures the Soviets are freely
applying in Afghanistan.  The Afghans have Islam to hold them together
against the invaders; I see no North American equivalent.  Especially
given that the Afghans have been fighting invaders for centuries, while
North America has been quiet and peaceful internally.

(The question is not whether some North Americans would be angry enough
to fight, but whether the non-fighting North Americans would show enough
solidarity to support the fighters even when the occupation forces started
getting nasty.  Guerillas and such have little chance of long-term survival
and effectiveness unless the non-fighting population supports them.)

Also, willingness to put up a fight doesn't count for as much as you'd think
against modern weapons.  The Afghan guerillas would undoubtedly give several
semi-essential parts of their anatomies in exchange for man-portable anti-
aircraft missiles; they have said so (phrased a bit differently...).  They
are badly short of many things.  This, in a country with (a) a history of
internal warfare, (b) a history of armed resistance to invasion, (c) an
active cottage industry in arms, and (d) a history of vigorous smuggling
across the border from a friendly neighbor.  Even if North Americans have
the will to make trouble for an invader, they are sadly ill-equipped to do
so, even by Afghan standards.

(Before you start counting hunting rifles, remember to count ammunition for
them as well.  50 rounds is several years' supply for a moderately active
big-game hunter, but is NOTHING for combat, even guerilla warfare.  Guns
without ammunition are useless.)

Switzerland is a better model than Afghanistan.  The Swiss do have standing
armed forces, although of relatively modest size.  More important, nearly
the entire population is TRAINED and EQUIPPED to fight as militia.  They
know that enthusiasm isn't enough, even with natural advantages like their
ideal defensive terrain.
-- 
				Henry Spencer @ U of Toronto Zoology
				{allegra,ihnp4,decvax,pyramid}!utzoo!henry