Relay-Version: version B 2.10 5/3/83; site utzoo.UUCP Path: utzoo!decvax!ucbvax!XX.LCS.MIT.EDU!WLIM From: WLIM@XX.LCS.MIT.EDU.UUCP Newsgroups: mod.politics Subject: Re: Poli-Sci Digest V6 #99 Message-ID: <12264922755.22.MCGREW@RED.RUTGERS.EDU> Date: Mon, 22-Dec-86 18:12:54 EST Article-I.D.: RED.12264922755.22.MCGREW Posted: Mon Dec 22 18:12:54 1986 Date-Received: Mon, 22-Dec-86 20:40:08 EST Sender: daemon@ucbvax.BERKELEY.EDU Reply-To: WLIM@XX.LCS.MIT.EDU Organization: The ARPA Internet Lines: 244 Approved: poli-sci@red.rutgers.edu From: mcgeer%sirius.Berkeley.EDU@BERKELEY.EDU (Rick McGeer) The Afrikaaners are a tough, independent people; they stood the British Empire off at the height of the Empire's power....(more salutation to the Afrikaaner)..... These Afrikaaners are the same people that the British at the peak of colonial rule called stupid, drunks, lazy etc. These same labels are also given (by the Afrikaaners) to the blacks, to the Irish by the "Brahmins" when they first came to Boston and to the Koreans by the Japanese. The Afrikaaners and Irish sure proved the bigots wrong. The Koreans are now challenging the dominance of the Japanese electronics and automobile industry. Do you expect the blacks to be the exception to this trend? Why? The Afrikaaners aren't going to "lose power" just like that. The blacks are not going to give up their fight for their basic rights. Having lived in a anti-communist country with almost no tolerance for dissent, I find the courage of anybody willing to stand up and fight for their rights (knowing very well that they have a very good chance of being severely punished) extremely admirable. In fact it is more admirable than the stubbornness of some irrational and selfish tribe which has no respect for the basic rights of fellow countrymen who just happen not to be in the same tribe. They *may* lose a civil war -- but I wouldn't bet on the blacks -- numbers and moral superiority don't win wars; disciplined armies and weapons do. This contradicts your earlier admiration of the Afrikaaners in their defeat of the British Army. It also contradicts: 1) the success of the Afghans in their defeat of the British 2) the ability of the Afghans to force Russia into the current stalemate 3) the success of our (US) revolution 4) the success of the French revolution 5) the success of the Bolshevik revolution 6) the success of the Haitian revolution against the French when the Haitians became the first black country to defeat a colonial power. Military might alone is not enough, you need the will, determination and support of the people. And yes, moral superiority does help when it comes to the supreme sacrifice---it makes it easier if you know you are dying for a morally superior cause. If you don't have a moral basis for your struggle, it is a matter of time before the frequent killing of school children gets to you. The Afrikaaners are 20% of the population of SA; the whites were only 5% of the population of Rhodesia, weren't nearly as tough or well-armed as the SAs, and both ZANU and ZAPU were better-armed and financed than the ANC. The ANC suffers from a lack of will when it comes to taking up arms. Some young radical blacks think that the ANC is being soft on the SA regime. In a few more years when the younger and more militant ANC members come into power, you will see something more like ZANU and ZAPU. The ANC will then be receiving more aid from those commies. As Ronald Reagan would say, you ain't see nothing yet! From what I have read, right now the ANC receives more (humanitarian) aid from Europe (Netherlands and the Scandinavian countries) than the (military) aid from the commies. Even if the SADF managed to wipe out the ANC today, unrest in SA will not disappear. Other groups will emerge as there is enough resentment of the current regime to support them. At that, it took seven years of bloody guerrilla war for the blacks to win in Rhodesia. How long would it take the SA blacks? Twenty years to forever, depending. Remember that Rhodesia had the support of SA. SA does not have the support of any of its neighbors. If the Afrikaaners manage to survive forever, other supremacist/hate/racist groups throughout the world (e.g. Northern Ireland, Russia, Punjab, Japan, Indonesia, Iran, ....) would adopt their techniques and we'll end up with a world where hate groups are perpetually fighting each other (i.e. a stalemate). That would be bad news for humanity and democracy. The chance that the war will last forever ranges from very unlikely to impossible. Here are the supporting arguments: 1) History: There is no war that has gone back all the way to the ancient history. Furthermore there is no civilization that have been supreme throughout history. Supposedly "barbaric" and "inferior" cultures had managed to become dominant over time e.g. a) the "barbarians" of Northern Europe during the height of the ancient ROMAN and GREEK civilizations, b) the Monguls in Asia, c) the more modern groups mentioned above. 2) Economic cost: A prolonged war makes apartheid the great equalizer. While the Afrikaaners are expending a lot of energy protecting their economically inefficient system, other African nations further north (i.e. outside the war zone) will be building up their economy. Even if there is no war, apartheid is a very costly political system. It was estimated that SA's economy would grow by an additional 2% if SA does not have to incur the cost of propping up the apartheid system. Furthermore, the Afrikaaners will opt for a growing population to offset their numerical inferiority. They need a growing economy to sustain their standard of living. That means trade with the rest of Africa and the world. Already most of SA trade is with the other countries of southern Africa. Trade with the rest of the world means more transportation cost. More trade means a more palatable political system in SA. 3) Technology: Even though SA has the technological edge now, that is not going to last forever. The other African nations will eventually become technologically superior. Already the rate of technology transfer is speeding up as a result of the armed conflict in southern Africa. E.g. The modern weapons Savimbi is getting from the US. Remember SA would have to nuke a large part of Africa (with a substantial ecological cost to SA) in order to keep the blacks in line while all that is needed to take care of SA (with a lower ecological cost to the African nations as a whole) is to just nuke it. The other African nations will eventually acquire nuclear, robotics and advanced military technology. There is only one SA but many black African nations. Each of these nations are experimenting with their own form of political and economic system. Eventually one of them will succeed and that is enough to take on SA. Hence the odds are against the Afrikaaners. Ironically the best chance for the survival of the Afrikaaners is the dismantling of apartheid. Our best chance of a non-communist and democratic SA is through negotiations. But the Afrikaaners have to be forced to negotiate. Now they only want to negotiate with weak black leaders so that they can dominate the negotiations. It might very well turn out that we can pre-empt the commies by letting the war go on for a little bit (like in Zimbabwe) and then get the parties (after being sufficiently bruised) to negotiate. And in the meantime we'd see the worst bloodbath outside of China in this century, rivalling even the Holocaust. And almost all of the blood that gets spilled will be black, and a fair amount of it might well be Angolan, Mozambiquean, and Zimbabwean. The cost in terms of human lives will have to be decided by the blacks. If they think it is worth it, there is nothing anybody else can do about it. So don't bother sheding any crocodile tears. There is *no way* to *force* the Afrikaaners to hand over power. The best we can do is to persuade the Afrikaaners to share power with the black majority. Agreed but I don't think that means that we have to kow-tow to the Afrikaaners. Though it looks almost impossible now, a day might come when the US (or some other non-Communist nation) begins providing military aid to the foes of apartheid. That means that the Afrikaaners need some guarantee that they'll be able to keep their homes, land and way of life. The modern way of life of the Afrikaaners have come about through very statist means. About 40%-60% (I think the exact figure is in the high end of this range) of the Afrikaaners (i.e. the labor force) are employed by the SA government. The SA government has been responsible for transforming the Afrikaaners from a poor rural people to a middle class urban people. As far as they are concerned, keeping their way of life means keeping their form of government. If that offends your sense of justice and equity, tough. Would you say the same thing of stubborn commies (or statists or Nazis)? Or a stubborn terrorist group? Or of any group that has done a great injustice to humanity? What does it take to offend your sense of justice and equity? If they don't get those guarantees, they will fight. That attitude will change as the Afrikaaners become more and more prosperous. They will acquire more marketable skills (i.e. become not just bureaucrats, policemen and soldiers) that will allow them to make a better living elsewhere. Then they will really have a choice. If the choice is between a better living elsewhere like the US, Australia, Canada, etc and the chaos is SA, the choice is obvious. (Remember that a lot people with stronger and more justifiable roots to their land have left their country of origin and emigrated to the US.) Now many of them are so mediocre (skillwise) and dependent on the government that they wouldn't make it anywhere else. If they fight, many, many, many blacks will die and the blacks might well lose anyway. You seem to have a hidden desire for the blacks to lose. (I remember reading something (I think it's from you) about SA going into robotics to ensure their survival through eternity.) That ain't good news to non-Afrikaaners (of any race). Suppose all the blacks in SA were to disappear right now. You'll end up with something like Northern Ireland---the non-Afrikaaner whites being the second class citizens since the Afrikaaners will be the ones with the political, military and economic power (they already do). They will have a preference for their own kind when it comes to election, employment and economic activities within SA. They will also be the legitimate majority of the all-white SA. They have tolerated the non-Afrikaaner whites for they pose the least threat. .....The Afrikaaner has nowhere else to go, and, like anyone with nowhere else to go, will fight to the death for his home and way of life. Neither do the blacks and so will the blacks. Given this, will you still talk airily about the black majority "taking over"? Is it your point that there should not be a democracy in SA? Is minority rule more preferable to a democracy in SA? Will you go to SA and die with the blacks in pursuit of this pipe dream? A rather ridiculous suggestion for silencing those people who don't agree with your views. Marcos, Stalin, Mao, Hilter, Amin, and Botha must be proud of you. However they don't pretend they were/are living in a democracy and thus don't have to tolerate opposing views. I presume that someone with the same mentality as yours could pose the question about you dying for the Catholics in Northern Ireland in their fight for human rights. The blacks don't need your condescension. They are not even asking that you die for them, all they are asking is the right to determine their own destiny. More and more blacks are prepared to make the supreme sacrifice so that their descendants will have that right. They have enough gallant fighters there that they don't need outsiders to fight for them. I am rather surprised that the blacks in SA are not already communists. They have lived in a quasi-socialist system for a long time with the SA government being the landlord and dictating to them regarding a) where they can and cannot live, b) where and what they can and cannot work, c) where their children is to get their education, d) what news to listen to, e) what business they can and cannot own, f) who has the right to vote, etc. (Well that's all the flame I have for no. Have to go to sleep so that I can get to cast my vote in about 7 hours. So enjoy our American system of democracy meanwhile.) Willie -------