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Path: utzoo!watmath!clyde!cbosgd!ihnp4!mgnetp!mgweed!rjr
From: rjr@mgweed.UUCP (Bob Roehrig)
Newsgroups: net.ham-radio
Subject: arrl propagation forecast bulletin nr 43
Message-ID: <21300@mgweed.UUCP>
Date: Tue, 29-Oct-85 14:54:26 EST
Article-I.D.: mgweed.21300
Posted: Tue Oct 29 14:54:26 1985
Date-Received: Wed, 30-Oct-85 07:30:54 EST
Organization: AT&T Information Systems - Montgomery Illinois
Lines: 35


qst de k9eui
hr propagation forecast bulletin nr 43
from arrl headquarters  newington ct
october 28  1985
to all radio amateurs  bt

since  the  middle  of  july  the  solar  flux  has   been   so
consistently  near the quiet sun level that some observers felt
the end of cycle 21 to be imminent.  but on october 13 a  major
new  active  area  came around the east limb of the sun and the
solar flux curve turned upward.  from 67 the flux rose to 95 by
october  22.   it  was  back  to  80 by the 27th, but the curve
appeared to be flattening out.  an active area that produced  a
slight  flux  peak on october 3 is returning to view this week.
it could keep the flux above minimum levels through november  1
at least.

occasional peaks of solar activity had been expected with cycle
21  still less than nine-and-one-half years old.  this one came
at the right time of year for maximum effect on the  higher  dx
frequencies.   worldwide  dx brought a rush of activity back to
the 21 mhz band and 24 and 28 mhz pulled back from almost total
quiet for a few days at least.

though solar activity is  falling  again,  conditions  will  be
mostly   favorable   through   october  30  at  least.   higher
geomagnetic activity october 31 through november 4 will tend to
restrict dx activity to the lower latitudes and transequatorial
circuits.  best overall conditions for early november should be
with us about the 5th to 7th.

american sunspot numbers for october 17 to 23 were  between  15
and 53 with a mean of 32.6.   ar