Relay-Version: version B 2.10 5/3/83; site utzoo.UUCP Posting-Version: version B 2.10.2 9/5/84; site ssc-vax.UUCP Path: utzoo!watmath!clyde!cbosgd!ihnp4!qantel!hplabs!tektronix!uw-beaver!ssc-vax!eder From: eder@ssc-vax.UUCP (Dani Eder) Newsgroups: net.space Subject: Re: Private Space Message-ID: <350@ssc-vax.UUCP> Date: Fri, 8-Nov-85 16:13:25 EST Article-I.D.: ssc-vax.350 Posted: Fri Nov 8 16:13:25 1985 Date-Received: Mon, 11-Nov-85 06:21:09 EST References: <8510291721.AA00286@s1-b.ARPA>, <333@ssc-vax.UUCP> <6125@utzoo.UUCP> Organization: Boeing Aerospace Co., Seattle, WA Lines: 67 > > ... After proving the new > > technologies, we estimate it would cost Boeing $2.7 Billion to build > > a vehicle like the Phoenix, and that the first one off the assembly line > > would cost about $300 million (3 times a 747). > > > > Considering that we can use existing manufacturing and assembly > > plants, with experienced people , whereas Pacific American would be > > starting from scratch, I find it doubtful they could build it for > > less than we can... > > No offence to you personally or to Boeing, Dani, but the military and > space branches of major aerospace companies are incapable of building > anything cheaply. Even when it can be, and should be, built cheaply. > They simply don't know how any more. > > I agree, by the way, that Hudson's weight margin in particular makes > Phoenix a high-risk investment. But I strongly suspect that if it can > be done at all, it can be done more cheaply than Boeing would do it. > -- > Henry Spencer @ U of Toronto Zoology > {allegra,ihnp4,linus,decvax}!utzoo!henry Since the group I work for is in the midst of a study whose goal is the reduction of space transportation cost by a factor of 5 to 10, we have become quite aware of what makes space hardware expensive. Note that the estimates I gave above are based on the way the Boeing Company makes things. Most of what we do is build commercial jet transports, and thus our cost equations are mostly derived from that experience. For example, the Phoenix tank is to be made of 2219-T87 aluminum alloy , and we happen to have a lot of experience in making things out of aluminum, i.e. airplanes. What is the real driver in costs is your design margins. If you lose one engine on a jet transport, the plane still flys, but somewhat slower. A small percentage of the rivets holding the plane together can fall out without catastrophic failures. As a consequence, the amount of checking you do between flights and the maintenance you do is small. On the Shuttle, if one engine goes out at the wrong time, you end up in the Atlantic. If a few key tiles fall off, your skin burns through, and perhaps lose the vehicle. Therefore, you must check these things between flights. Which costs money. When you design an airplane, you stress parts to maybe 50% of ultimate capacity. On the Shuttle, some parts are designed to 90% of ultimate strength. Therefore you must design them more carefully, not making approximations. You must build the parts with much more attention to quality, since a flaw would be much more likely to degrade the part below its required strength. These add to cost. If and when we have propulsion capable enough to allow larger design margins, we will be able to operate more like airplanes, and hence be cheaper. I was looking at the Phoenix to see if there was any good ideas in it that we could apply to our work, and there are some intriguing ideas, but they are untried technologies. It will take much time, people , and money to develop the technologies to the point of being able to carry passengers. I wish it were otherwise. If you or anyone else has a cheaper way to do things, please tell me. You may save the US many billions of dollars in the next fifteen years. But merely saying "we will be a new, efficient company", as Hudson is claiming for Pacific American Launch Systems, will not do. You must be able to say 'we can design a part in x hours' or 'we can build structure in y hours per pound' or 'this engine is z percent higher specific impulse than the SSME'. Dani Eder/Advanced Space Transportation/ Boeing