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From: dxa@bentley.UUCP (DR Anolick)
Newsgroups: net.politics
Subject: Re: Statistics are like a bikini...
Message-ID: <569@bentley.UUCP>
Date: Sat, 14-Sep-85 16:34:08 EDT
Article-I.D.: bentley.569
Posted: Sat Sep 14 16:34:08 1985
Date-Received: Tue, 17-Sep-85 05:31:04 EDT
Organization: AT&T Bell Laboratories, Piscataway
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These articles are getting so long, that I feel I should summarize what I have 
written so that net readers may decide if they wish to read through it.

This article contains:
	- A summary of Mr. Blacks original article on statistics
	  which imply that six million Jews were not murdered in WWII.

	- A discussion of how statistics may have limited accuracy. 

	- A discussion on some of the statistics used by Mr. Black,
	  including quotes from original sources.


In a recent article, Mr. Black uses statistics to support his claim 
that six million Jews were not murdered during World War II.

Rather than reproduce his entire article, below is a summary of the
statistics he uses:

	ONE:	13.5 million Jews in the world today
		(Statistic from posting by Oded Feingold)

	TWO:	15,688,259 Jews in the world in 1938
		(1938 edition of the "World Almanac")

	THREE:	9,688,000 Jews in 1945 (if Holocaust is true)
		(World Almanac (1938) figure minus 6 Million)

	FOUR:	18,700,000 Jews in 1948
		(NY Times 2/22/48, article by Hanson W. Baldwin)

Mr. Black then points out that it is unreasonable to believe that the Jewish 
population would double in three years.  (Figures THREE and FOUR) He points 
out that a populations increase of three million in ten years is reasonable 
(Figures TWO and FOUR), and that the decline of 5.2 million Jews in 37 years 
is reasonable (Figures ONE and FOUR).  He therefore concludes that figure 
THREE is invalid and should be discarded.  thereby implying that six million 
did not die in the Holocaust.

[Mr. Black, please correct me if this summary is not an accurate representation
of what you were trying to say]

I'm not going to argue with Mr. Black's conclusions.  They are valid conclusions
given the above statistics.  However, are the statistics valid?  I think not.
Population statistics usually have a great deal of error.  

This past week I did some research into population statistics.  I am no
statistician, so someone with real experience could do a much better job
than myself.  Basically the conclusion that I came to is that it is 
impossible for and amateur (like Mr. Black or myself) to prove or disprove
the holocaust using only population statistics.  There is simply too
much uncertainty.

All of the sources I found stressed that the listed population figures were 
only estimates.  The 1938 edition of the Encyclopedia Britannica Book of the 
Year, on page 363 lists the following reasons for poor accuracy in population 
statistics:

	1) In various countries ..., no census at all has so far
	   been taken.

	2) In some other countries ..., the census does not indicate
	   the religion of the inhabitants.

	3) The last census available was not carried out in the same
	   year in all countries, but in different years during
	   the period 1921-1936.

One other problem lies with the question, "who is a Jew?"  You can get many 
different answers to that question.  By one interpretation of Jewish law, you 
are a Jew if your mother is a Jew.  So, if your mother's mother is Jewish so 
are you.  One census taker may simply ask if you are Jewish.  You reply no, 
since only your grandmother was Jewish.  Another may ask you only about your 
maternal grandmother, and put you as Jewish if she was.

On top of all of this, we have the problem of World War Two.  With so much
upheaval and destruction, it was next to impossible to find valid information
on populations of Jews until long after the war was over.

So, statistics are not always accurate.  Are the ones Mr. Black uses accurate?
Mr. Black's exact quote for Statistic TWO above was:

>       In the 1938 edition of the "World Almanac" of the American Jewish 
>  Committee, the world population of Jews was 15,688,259.  

When I looked at the 1938 edition of the World Almanac, I found on page 431 
that there are 15,315,359 Jews in the world.  Numerically, the figure I found 
is close to Mr. Black's.  But if Mr. Black insists on quoting a source, I 
encourage him to do so accurately.  Of course we might be using different 
World Almanacs.  The one I found was published by the New York World-Telegram, 
A Scripps-Howard Newspaper.  It did list the American Jewish committee as the 
source of its figure, but I could not find a "World Almanac" which was 
published by the American Jewish Committee.

Now lets consider statistic number FOUR above.  Mr. Black's exact quote for
this statistic was:

>       But we find according to an article by Hanson W. Baldwin, published in
>  the New York Times of 22 February 1948, less than three years from the end
>  of the alleged Holocaust, the world Jewish population was 18,700,000---

I have in front of me a copy of an article entitled "Armies for Palestine" 
by Hanson W. Baldwin.  It can be found in the New York Times of Sunday, 
February 22, 1948 on page 4, column 2.  Perhaps there is another article by 
H. W. Baldwin in that issue of the Times.  If so, I could not find it, so I 
am assuming that this article is the one referenced by Mr. Black.  

The Times article is written three months before Israel declares independence
and the war with the Arabs begin.  Mr. Baldwin is discussing a major issue
of the day, which was "the size and capabilities of the opposing forces in the 
Middle East."   In the course of this discussion, the article gives population 
figures which pertain to the Middle East struggle.  After stating the 
population of Jews in Palestine and other Arab countries in the Middle East, 
Mr. Baldwin states:  "In these countries the Jews are tied by bonds of 
religion to the rest of the fifteen to eighteen million Jews of the world..."

I'd like to point out that this figure of "fifteen to eighteen million"
is far different from the figure of 18,700,000 quoted by Mr. Black.  Not
just in terms of the number, but in terms of accuracy implied.  The original 
figure in the Time's article implies limited accuracy, while Mr. Black's 
figure implies a greater accuracy.

The Time's article does not list the sources for its figures.  Since the 
article is primarily concerned the military capabilities in the Middle East,
Jewish population of the world was not as important to the article as the
Jewish population of the Middle East.  It is therefore my opinion that 
H. W. Baldwin was probably not concerned with the accuracy of the world 
figure.  (Even if he did wish to use a completely accurate figure, it
would have been hard to find, as I explained earlier.)

Population statistics are not very accurate.  Mr. Black's statistics are
even less accurate since they poorly quoted.  In the future, Mr. Black
would do well to quote his sources correctly, and list complete information
on how to verify.  (i.e. for the NY Times article, page number, column number,
and article title in addition to the author and date.  For the World Almanac
figure, the correct page number and publisher)

So, statistics are like a bikini, Mr. Black.  They often cover very little
in terms of facts.  You have shown a prime example of statistics which have
been twisted to show exactly what you wanted, instead of the truth.
-- 

	Droyan				David Roy Anolick
ihnp4!bentley!{droyan|dxa}		^     ^^^ ^^

"All that is necessary for evil to succeed in the world
 is for enough good people to do nothing."