Relay-Version: version B 2.10 5/3/83; site utzoo.UUCP Posting-Version: version B 2.10.1 6/24/83; site msdc.UUCP Path: utzoo!watmath!clyde!cbosgd!gatech!gt-stratus!msdc!gpb From: gpb@msdc.UUCP (George P. Burdell) Newsgroups: net.sport.football Subject: Re: George part of AP poll? Message-ID: <144@msdc.UUCP> Date: Fri, 4-Oct-85 10:06:45 EDT Article-I.D.: msdc.144 Posted: Fri Oct 4 10:06:45 1985 Date-Received: Sat, 5-Oct-85 07:00:44 EDT References: <140100001@uiucdcsb> Distribution: net Organization: George's Football Picks - Atlanta, GA Lines: 63 >> But then I saw the AP poll this >> week, and the SEVENTEENTH-ranked Terps got one FIRST place vote. >> >> So what gives? Is George on the AP panel of sportswriters? >> Is George THAT influential? I'd like George to respond. >> >> Stephen L. Borodkin Stephen (and the rest of the net): No, George is not THAT influenetial. We only wish that we get paid the way thoses sportswriters do for doing this stuff. Although, we'd like to use this as a way of getting rid of most of our local sportscasters and writers. But that's another story. I imagine that the sportswriter you mentioned in your article uses the same algorithms for determining his college rankings that George uses. The basic algorithm is: given two power ratings of some teams, predict the outcome. Now take the real outcome of the game and adjust the power rating of the two teams. Ex: Team A has a power rating of 113; Team B has one of 108. Teams A plays at Team B: 113 - (108 + 3 for home field) Team A is favored by two points. Now take some hypothetical results: 1. A beats B by 10. Real margin of victory is 8. Add one point to A's power rating, subtract 1 from B's 2. A beats B by 40. Real margin is 38. Adjust each team by 4 points. 3. A beats B by 1. A actually loses due to the spread but because the gap is close, no adjustment is made 4. B beats A by 10. Actually margin is 12 in B's favor Add two points to B; subtract two from A This is why we post George's spread results in each week's article. 0-4 point margin causes no change in the power ratings; 5-9 causes one point difference; 10-14 = 2 points; 15-19 = 3 points; and 20-up causes a 4 point difference. Also, late in the season you do not adjust the power rankings as much. i.e. use 3 point adjustments instead of 4. It seems that the Vegas oddsmakers do something similar because George is remarkably close with their lines. Last year we did predictions using George on college basketball games (but not on the net) and he did very well. This year we will post George for basketball games (more on that in net.sport.hoops in the next couple of weeks). I'm glad to see some people out there are actually reading George's picks and enjoying them. We have fun working them out and we hope you have some fun gleaming over his prognastications. BTW, we apologize for not getting George's picks to the net in time for this week's games. George's owners have had several projects due this week and haven't had time to put the picks together. However, the next article will have his picks. For the record, they are being posted Friday morning (not that any of them will be perfect anyway). Now to quote another expert football picker, "Get me out of here, Percy" George P. Burdell George's Football Picks Atlanta, Georgia {gatech,ihnp4,mcnc,ncsu,akgua}!msdc!gpb