Relay-Version: version B 2.10 5/3/83; site utzoo.UUCP Posting-Version: version B 2.10.2 9/18/84 SMI; site sun.uucp Path: utzoo!linus!philabs!prls!amdimage!amdcad!decwrl!sun!alan From: alan@sun.uucp (Alan Marr, Sun Graphics) Newsgroups: net.politics Subject: Re: We're next Message-ID: <2628@sun.uucp> Date: Wed, 14-Aug-85 09:25:07 EDT Article-I.D.: sun.2628 Posted: Wed Aug 14 09:25:07 1985 Date-Received: Mon, 19-Aug-85 06:48:03 EDT References: <3593@decwrl.UUCP> Reply-To: alan@sun.UUCP (Alan Marr, Sun Graphics) Organization: Sun Microsystems, Inc. Lines: 194 In article <3593@decwrl.UUCP> black@pundit.DEC (DON BLACK DTN 261-2739 MS: NIO/N13 LOC: POLE C6) writes: > I see the Communists had a big parade in Washington > yesterday (Monday, 12 August). Mayor Koch was there, Jesse > Jackson was there, Coretta Scott King was there---what a crowd! > > What we're watching is the beginning of the end of freedom > in South Africa. The US had a trusted allie [sic] in South > Africa, one of the last bastions of anti-communism. Now we're > giving them the blade in the back. "Et tu, Brute? Then fall > South Africa!" The end of freedom for the whites in South Africa. The blacks don't have it (is this not obvious?). The beginning of the end was when the whites put the knife in their own back. We may not be working with them hard enough for them to change their minds and pull it out (if it is possible for them to change their minds in time), but we are not giving them the blade. They are perfectly capable of that themselves. Probably Mr. Black means that the fall of the government will trigger a geo-political chain of events that threatens American freedom. This might be true in the short run but in the long run there are larger issues involved than the absence of a particular ally, even a rich, strategic, devoted one. The U.S. has created enough problems for itself around the world by supporting repressive regimes (the Shah of Iran comes to mind as an example of a rich, strategic, devoted, former ally). This is something that it is beginning to learn. The Russians on the other hand have not learnt it (the communists probably never will). Thus, as a result, many countries around the world are starting to lean more favourably to the U.S. This has positive repercussions on the geopolitical balance in favour of freedom and decency since it is a result of enlightened U.S. behaviour in a leadership role. The U.S. experiment in democracy and government is an amazingly bold one. It is one of the few countries in the world where the elected representatives and the public at large are openly concerned about ethical conduct of geopolitical power. In a partly evil world some distasteful actions (e.g. "wet affairs") may be necessary, but public discussion of the issues clarifies them and leads to an informed electorate that will evolve a better system in the only way that has durability (because the citizenry are behind it). Mr. Black might be able to persuade us to support an unethical regime out of necessity. But I doubt he can persuade us to support an unethical regime that is also a loser. > But South Africa's demise was inevitable. IS inevitable. More precisely, the government will fall, but not necessarily the country. If Mr. Black feels that a succeeding black-dominated or racially proportioned government will not be wise enough or strong enough to stay away from communist control, then he might wish to urge us to aid those forces in opposition who have the potential to be strong so that they will establish a government that stands for our democratic ideals of freedom. Hopefully he does not feel that the black opposition is devoid of people who are wise and strong. The government won't fall this year or probably for another decade or so. Look how long Rhodesia took becoming Zimbabwe. Look how long Vietnam took to fall (about 30 years incl. the French period). The S.A. government is facing a less sophisticated, lighter armed opposition, and it has a more determined defensive force using a more highly developed infrastructure. The opposition has a long way to go to get angry enough and smart enough to defeat armored personnel carriers and machine guns (it can be done but many fine people of all races will die in avoidable bloodshed). When the black middle class (who are more numerous and better off than their neighbors in Africa) rises up, the point of no return will have been reached because of the synergy of the cooperative effort with the poor blacks. > The Kremlin decreed that South Africa was one of two jewels > that must fall to Internationalist Communism. Not the issue. Perhaps this is the Kremlin's plan, but what is important is what action they may take to implement it (such as arms traffic and subversion). It is possible to stem that tide without propping up a foul doomed regime and without losing the support of the rest of Africa (who are necessary to stem that subversion). > And so it will fall. Mr. Black would seem to be overawed by the Kremlin's abilities and underestimating the historical imperative of oppression. The more pressure used to contain a volatile reaction beyond the point of the ultimate strength of the container, the more violent the explosion when it happens and the harder it is to put the pieces back together afterwards. The communist model of revolution (also used by anarchists, theocrats, and other revolutionaries) is to actually increase the amount of oppression so as to increase the amount of support for the revolution. They do this by provoking retaliation from the regime, which typically is stupid enough to hurt so many innocents directly through injury or indirectly through more oppression that the revolutionaries score a net gain. Look at the way the government of Sri Lanka is dealing with Tamil terrorists. Look at the way the Contras in Nicaragua are maiming people. Look at the way the Russians are destroying whole villages in Afghanistan. Contrast this with the way the British successfully combatted the Communists in Malaysia by going into the jungles and beating them at their own game without massive harm to civilian populations. Blind support for the white rulers of S.A. only plays into the hands of the communists. It is necessary to defuse the situation. The government there should be supported to some extent since it does represent a force in favor of law and order which is necessary for an orderly and relatively peaceful transition and to avoid revolution. However, it should only be supported to the extent that it is improving laws in such a way as to make that evolution possible and at a sufficient rate that is not a joke (as it currently is). The majority of the whites there do not understand that that evolution is necessary and that real progress must be made. > For the next year we'll have to watch the bloodbath on NBC Nightly > News. And we'll have a flood of white South African refugees > heading for our shores. I can see the scenario as they arrive. > "You're not Black or Asian, and we don't consider the African > National Congress an oppressive government. Therefore, you > cannot stay. Back on the boats, you pro-Nazi swine!" Mr. Black underestimates the compassion of the U.S. for refugees from any oppressive regime. If he thinks that the scenario he imagines is sufficiently likely and disturbs him sufficiently he can do those people a favour by starting now to organize a relief effort that will be in place when needed. > We, the Good Ol' U. S. of A., are next on the Hit List. This is news? > Once South Africa is securely in the Soviet Bloc, rest > assured that the Communist/Nazi/Internationalists will start > the final assault against us. The Order of Battle is already > written. > > Sleep well tonight. We don't have too many more left. We have many left. The government of S.A. will not fall for a long time. When it does, it is not a certainty that S.A. will be securely in the Soviet Bloc. Even if it were, it is not a certainty that the "Communist/Nazi/Internationalists" will be ready to move against the U.S. directly. They might well have their hands full with the Eastern Europeans, the Muslim republics in the USSR, and the Chinese. They may wish to attack Western Europe or South America first. The "Order of Battle" changes all the time. If Mr. Black's sleep is perturbed, he has many opportunities. One is of course to use the net to persuade people of the danger. This he is doing, but black@pundit overstates his case, thereby losing some of the effectiveness of his argument. If the Republic of South Africa is the key domino that Mr. Black feels it is, perhaps he is wasting his time here. Perhaps he should move there and work for the government or the army or the police force. Perhaps he could use his computer expertise to enhance the power of the police state with database technology or real-time systems. He could strengthen the security systems that are set up to lock down the townships by cutting off all the water, sewage, power, and telephones that go through convenient single points. On the other hand, Mr. Black may wish to go there to strengthen the forces of freedom and democracy. He may wish to educate blacks about constitutional processes. He may wish to train negotiators of all races so as to defuse the dynamics of the situation. He may wish to help the whites understand that the blacks are not intellectually inferior (a cornerstone of the justification of apartheid -- the government doesn't trust the tribes to be able to participate). He can persuade people here to emigrate to S.A. to strengthen the bastion. Alternatively he can go to South Africa and attempt to persuade people of the necessity to leave while they can. I was born in Johannesberg. My parents did the best possible thing they could have done for me by emigrating to Canada when I was 3 1/2 years old. After the Sharpville massacre they said "South Africa is no place to raise children". I have only to compare the attitudes of my relatives who moved to Australia and those who remain in South Africa. The latter have a simplistic view of the world that has not grown as it would in the North American environment of free-er press.