Relay-Version: version B 2.10 5/3/83; site utzoo.UUCP
Posting-Version: version B 2.10.2 9/18/84 SMI; site sun.uucp
Path: utzoo!linus!philabs!prls!amdimage!amdcad!decwrl!sun!alan
From: alan@sun.uucp (Alan Marr, Sun Graphics)
Newsgroups: net.politics
Subject: Re: We're next
Message-ID: <2628@sun.uucp>
Date: Wed, 14-Aug-85 09:25:07 EDT
Article-I.D.: sun.2628
Posted: Wed Aug 14 09:25:07 1985
Date-Received: Mon, 19-Aug-85 06:48:03 EDT
References: <3593@decwrl.UUCP>
Reply-To: alan@sun.UUCP (Alan Marr, Sun Graphics)
Organization: Sun Microsystems, Inc.
Lines: 194

In article <3593@decwrl.UUCP> black@pundit.DEC
  (DON BLACK DTN 261-2739 MS: NIO/N13 LOC: POLE C6) writes:

>     I see the Communists had a big parade in Washington
> yesterday (Monday, 12 August).  Mayor Koch was there, Jesse
> Jackson was there, Coretta Scott King was there---what a crowd!
> 
>      What we're watching is the beginning of the end of freedom
> in South Africa.  The US had a trusted allie [sic] in South
> Africa, one of the last bastions of anti-communism.  Now we're
> giving them the blade in the back.  "Et tu, Brute?  Then fall
> South Africa!"

The end of freedom for the whites in South Africa.  The blacks
don't have it (is this not obvious?).  The beginning of the end
was when the whites put the knife in their own back.  We may not
be working with them hard enough for them to change their minds
and pull it out (if it is possible for them to change their
minds in time), but we are not giving them the blade.  They are
perfectly capable of that themselves.

Probably Mr. Black means that the fall of the government will
trigger a geo-political chain of events that threatens American
freedom.  This might be true in the short run but in the long
run there are larger issues involved than the absence of a
particular ally, even a rich, strategic, devoted one.  The U.S.
has created enough problems for itself around the world by
supporting repressive regimes (the Shah of Iran comes to mind as
an example of a rich, strategic, devoted, former ally).  This is
something that it is beginning to learn.  The Russians on the
other hand have not learnt it (the communists probably never
will).  Thus, as a result, many countries around the world are
starting to lean more favourably to the U.S.  This has positive
repercussions on the geopolitical balance in favour of freedom
and decency since it is a result of enlightened U.S.  behaviour
in a leadership role.

The U.S. experiment in democracy and government is an amazingly
bold one.  It is one of the few countries in the world where the
elected representatives and the public at large are openly
concerned about ethical conduct of geopolitical power.  In a
partly evil world some distasteful actions (e.g. "wet affairs")
may be necessary, but public discussion of the issues clarifies
them and leads to an informed electorate that will evolve a
better system in the only way that has durability (because the
citizenry are behind it).

Mr. Black might be able to persuade us to support an unethical
regime out of necessity.  But I doubt he can persuade us to
support an unethical regime that is also a loser.

>      But South Africa's demise was inevitable.

IS inevitable.  More precisely, the government will fall, but
not necessarily the country.  If Mr. Black feels that a
succeeding black-dominated or racially proportioned government
will not be wise enough or strong enough to stay away from
communist control, then he might wish to urge us to aid those
forces in opposition who have the potential to be strong so that
they will establish a government that stands for our democratic
ideals of freedom.  Hopefully he does not feel that the black
opposition is devoid of people who are wise and strong.

The government won't fall this year or probably for another
decade or so.  Look how long Rhodesia took becoming Zimbabwe.
Look how long Vietnam took to fall (about 30 years incl. the
French period).  The S.A. government is facing a less
sophisticated, lighter armed opposition, and it has a more
determined defensive force using a more highly developed
infrastructure.  The opposition has a long way to go to get
angry enough and smart enough to defeat armored personnel
carriers and machine guns (it can be done but many fine people
of all races will die in avoidable bloodshed).  When the black
middle class (who are more numerous and better off than their
neighbors in Africa) rises up, the point of no return will have
been reached because of the synergy of the cooperative effort
with the poor blacks.

> The Kremlin decreed that South Africa was one of two jewels
> that must fall to Internationalist Communism.

Not the issue.  Perhaps this is the Kremlin's plan, but what is
important is what action they may take to implement it (such as
arms traffic and subversion).  It is possible to stem that tide
without propping up a foul doomed regime and without losing the
support of the rest of Africa (who are necessary to stem that
subversion).

> And so it will fall.

Mr. Black would seem to be overawed by the Kremlin's abilities
and underestimating the historical imperative of oppression.
The more pressure used to contain a volatile reaction beyond the
point of the ultimate strength of the container, the more
violent the explosion when it happens and the harder it is to
put the pieces back together afterwards.

The communist model of revolution (also used by anarchists,
theocrats, and other revolutionaries) is to actually increase
the amount of oppression so as to increase the amount of support
for the revolution.  They do this by provoking retaliation from
the regime, which typically is stupid enough to hurt so many
innocents directly through injury or indirectly through more
oppression that the revolutionaries score a net gain.  Look at
the way the government of Sri Lanka is dealing with Tamil
terrorists.  Look at the way the Contras in Nicaragua are
maiming people.  Look at the way the Russians are destroying
whole villages in Afghanistan.  Contrast this with the way the
British successfully combatted the Communists in Malaysia by
going into the jungles and beating them at their own game
without massive harm to civilian populations.

Blind support for the white rulers of S.A. only plays into the
hands of the communists.  It is necessary to defuse the
situation.  The government there should be supported to some
extent since it does represent a force in favor of law and order
which is necessary for an orderly and relatively peaceful
transition and to avoid revolution.  However, it should only be
supported to the extent that it is improving laws in such a way
as to make that evolution possible and at a sufficient rate that
is not a joke (as it currently is).  The majority of the whites
there do not understand that that evolution is necessary and
that real progress must be made.

> For the next year we'll have to watch the bloodbath on NBC Nightly
> News.  And we'll have a flood of white South African refugees
> heading for our shores.  I can see the scenario as they arrive.
> "You're not Black or Asian, and we don't consider the African
> National Congress an oppressive government.  Therefore, you
> cannot stay.  Back on the boats, you pro-Nazi swine!"

Mr. Black underestimates the compassion of the U.S. for refugees
from any oppressive regime.  If he thinks that the scenario he
imagines is sufficiently likely and disturbs him sufficiently he
can do those people a favour by starting now to organize a
relief effort that will be in place when needed.

>      We, the Good Ol' U. S. of A., are next on the Hit List.

This is news?

>      Once South Africa is securely in the Soviet Bloc, rest
> assured that the Communist/Nazi/Internationalists will start
> the final assault against us.  The Order of Battle is already
> written.
> 
>      Sleep well tonight.  We don't have too many more left.

We have many left.  The government of S.A. will not fall for a
long time.  When it does, it is not a certainty that S.A. will
be securely in the Soviet Bloc.  Even if it were, it is not a
certainty that the "Communist/Nazi/Internationalists" will be
ready to move against the U.S. directly.  They might well have
their hands full with the Eastern Europeans, the Muslim
republics in the USSR, and the Chinese.  They may wish to attack
Western Europe or South America first.  The "Order of Battle"
changes all the time.

If Mr. Black's sleep is perturbed, he has many opportunities.
One is of course to use the net to persuade people of the
danger.  This he is doing, but black@pundit overstates his case,
thereby losing some of the effectiveness of his argument.

If the Republic of South Africa is the key domino that Mr.
Black feels it is, perhaps he is wasting his time here.  Perhaps
he should move there and work for the government or the army or
the police force.  Perhaps he could use his computer expertise to
enhance the power of the police state with database technology
or real-time systems.  He could strengthen the security systems
that are set up to lock down the townships by cutting off all
the water, sewage, power, and telephones that go through
convenient single points.

On the other hand, Mr. Black may wish to go there to strengthen
the forces of freedom and democracy.  He may wish to educate
blacks about constitutional processes.  He may wish to train
negotiators of all races so as to defuse the dynamics of the
situation.  He may wish to help the whites understand that the
blacks are not intellectually inferior (a cornerstone of the
justification of apartheid -- the government doesn't trust the
tribes to be able to participate).  He can persuade people here
to emigrate to S.A. to strengthen the bastion.  Alternatively he
can go to South Africa and attempt to persuade people of the
necessity to leave while they can.

I was born in Johannesberg.  My parents did the best possible
thing they could have done for me by emigrating to Canada when I
was 3 1/2 years old.  After the Sharpville massacre they said
"South Africa is no place to raise children".  I have only to
compare the attitudes of my relatives who moved to Australia and
those who remain in South Africa.  The latter have a simplistic
view of the world that has not grown as it would in the North
American environment of free-er press.