Relay-Version: version B 2.10 5/3/83; site utzoo.UUCP Posting-Version: version B 2.10.2 9/18/84 exptools; site whuxl.UUCP Path: utzoo!watmath!clyde!burl!ulysses!mhuxr!mhuxt!houxm!whuxl!orb From: orb@whuxl.UUCP (SEVENER) Newsgroups: net.politics.theory Subject: Social Order and Mayhem : Re to Cramer Message-ID: <674@whuxl.UUCP> Date: Tue, 2-Jul-85 18:02:02 EDT Article-I.D.: whuxl.674 Posted: Tue Jul 2 18:02:02 1985 Date-Received: Wed, 3-Jul-85 20:30:09 EDT References: <298@spar.UUCP> <2380037@acf4.UUCP> <657@whuxl.UUCP> <2325@topaz.ARPA> <662@whuxl.UUCP> <291@kontron.UUCP> Organization: AT&T Bell Laboratories, Whippany Lines: 49 > From Clayton Cramer: > If traffic in New Jersey is libertarian in nature, it's the only > thing about New Jersey that is. > > Seriously, my experience is that in the absence of operating traffic > signals, and where the right of way is not clear, most people drive > *very* cautiously, because they desire to avoid accidents in which > they will be injured, or at a minimum, their car will be damaged. Perhaps > New Jersey's problem is too many years of governmental control --- I > refuse to believe that any significant chunk of the population of > New Jersey is so completely incapable of thinking far enough ahead > to avoid a potentially dangerous accident. Are there that many morons > in New Jersey? > You are undoubtedly correct that *most* people drive more slowly without traffic signals. Which just proves that a modicum of social order helps *everyone* to achieve their goals more easily. Nor are most people so stupid that they will head directly for another car. However most people are also not so noble as to do such things as reduce their speed at their own quite clear expense for the more abtract benefit of reducing the statistical risk of accidents to others (or themselves). This illustrates basic statistical laws of large numbers which Libertarians seem to think do not apply to social groups. Although I cannot predict that *this particular speeder* will crash by exceeding the speed limit or by going as fast as he might given no speed limit, statistics can predict with a fair amount of certainty that when the average speed of *many people* is increased, there will be XX greater accidents and deaths. This certainty and this prediction is due to the larger number of cases for the case of many versus one individual. This confusion between *individual/particular* interests and the *average/collective* interests is peculiarly bred by capitalist ideology. Everyone is told that "anyone can become a millionaire". However the fact is that only a small percentage of people could ever become millionaires even if they try. Of those trying to run even small businesses 85% fail. People know this but they tell themselves (and are repeatedly fostered in this illusion) that *I* am different - *I* can beat the odds. Of course they are not different, and the great preponderance will fail. Of course *I* can speed and not have an accident - but in fact everybody speeding inevitably increases the number of accidents regardless of one's individual delusions. tim sevener whuxl!orb