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From: rjr@mgweed.UUCP (Bob Roehrig)
Newsgroups: net.ham-radio
Subject: arrl propagation forecast bulletin nr 27
Message-ID: <18648@mgweed.UUCP>
Date: Mon, 8-Jul-85 19:49:42 EDT
Article-I.D.: mgweed.18648
Posted: Mon Jul  8 19:49:42 1985
Date-Received: Tue, 9-Jul-85 07:14:00 EDT
Organization: AT&T Information Systems - Montgomery Illinois
Lines: 36


qst de k9eui
hr propagation forecast bulletin nr 27  from arrl headquarters
newington, ct  july 7, 1985
to all radio amateurs bt

active areas of the sun responsible for  solar  flux  peaks  in
early  may  and  june  have been on the visible disc of the sun
again since july 1.  the  lead  group  is  shrinking,  but  the
second  is  larger  and  more  complex  than  during  its  june
appearance.  the solar flux rose from 74 on july 1 to 95 on the
7th, its highest since july of last year.  all visible activity
is now in the western half of the solar disc, so the  flux  and
sunspot numbers will be lower this week.

as predicted last week, geomagnetic  activity  associated  with
the more active sun made for erratic dx conditions on our lower
frequencies.   more  stable  propagation  and  lower  muf   are
expected after about july 9.  transatlantic dx was worked on 50
mhz during the evening of july 2, and again  around  midday  on
the  7th.   there  was  also  50  mhz work to south and central
america on the latter date.   we  may  have  passed  the  early
summer  peak for e layer dx on 28 and 50 mhz, but there will be
frequent openings during july.  there is no close tie  in  with
solar  flux peaks or valleys for the e layer mode, but the four
week solar rotation period is worth noting.  on that  basis  we
expect a fall off in the middle of july, and a final upsurge at
the months end.

a gradual  change  to  f  layer  propagation  and  longer  skip
distances will be noticeable on 21 mhz and lower frequencies in
august.  as e skip drops off, 28 mhz will seem quiet but  there
is a good possibility of long haul f layer work on that band in
the fall months.  more details on this prospect will  be  given
in a few weeks.  ar