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From: cramer@kontron.UUCP (Clayton Cramer)
Newsgroups: net.politics.theory
Subject: Re: Social Order and Mayhem : Re to Cramer
Message-ID: <349@kontron.UUCP>
Date: Mon, 8-Jul-85 18:58:54 EDT
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Posted: Mon Jul  8 18:58:54 1985
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> > From Clayton Cramer: 
> > If traffic in New Jersey is libertarian in nature, it's the only
> > thing about New Jersey that is.
> > 
> > Seriously, my experience is that in the absence of operating traffic
> > signals, and where the right of way is not clear, most people drive
> > *very* cautiously, because they desire to avoid accidents in which
> > they will be injured, or at a minimum, their car will be damaged.  Perhaps
> > New Jersey's problem is too many years of governmental control --- I
> > refuse to believe that any significant chunk of the population of
> > New Jersey is so completely incapable of thinking far enough ahead
> > to avoid a potentially dangerous accident.  Are there that many morons
> > in New Jersey?
> > 
>  
> You are undoubtedly correct that *most* people drive more slowly without
> traffic signals.  Which just proves that a modicum of social order
> helps *everyone* to achieve their goals more easily.
>  
Social order, not government.  In the absence of government or its 
direction, people develop social order.

> Nor are most people so stupid that they will head directly for another
> car.  However most people are also not so noble as to do such things as
> reduce their speed at their own quite clear expense for the more
> abtract benefit of reducing the statistical risk of accidents to others
> (or themselves).
>  
The risk is small; the potential damage and injury is immense.  Most
people (almost all people, in fact), *do* reduce their speed to avoid
accidents.  I suggest you go spend some time driving.  I frequently
see people who are incompetent drivers; frequently people who are
drunk, and don't realize how impaired they are; I *very* seldom see
people who are so stupid as to risk an accident just to get somewhere
faster.

> This illustrates basic statistical laws of large numbers which
> Libertarians seem to think do not apply to social groups.
> Although I cannot predict that *this particular speeder* will crash
> by exceeding the speed limit or by going as fast as he might given
> no speed limit, statistics can predict with a fair amount of certainty
> that when the average speed of *many people* is increased, there will
> be XX greater accidents and deaths.  This certainty and this prediction
> is due to the larger number of cases for the case of many versus
> one individual.
>  
Speed isn't the only factor; variation in speed within traffic is the
major factor.  Your comments about statistical laws are unclear.

> This confusion between *individual/particular* interests and the
> *average/collective* interests is peculiarly bred by capitalist ideology.
> Everyone is told that "anyone can become a millionaire".

Almost everyone has the opportunity; not all take it.  Look at the charming
guy who runs HerbalLife.  :-)

> However the fact is that only a small percentage of people could
> ever become millionaires even if they try.  Of those trying to run
> even small businesses 85% fail.  People know this but they tell
> themselves (and are repeatedly fostered in this illusion) that
> *I* am different - *I* can beat the odds.  Of course they are not
> different, and the great preponderance will fail.
> Of course *I* can speed and not have an accident - but in fact
> everybody speeding inevitably increases the number of accidents
> regardless of one's individual delusions.
>  
>              tim sevener  whuxl!orb

Depends on a lot of circumstances --- speed is only one.