Relay-Version: version B 2.10 5/3/83; site utzoo.UUCP Posting-Version: version B 2.10.2 9/18/84; site kontron.UUCP Path: utzoo!watmath!clyde!burl!ulysses!mhuxr!mhuxt!houxm!mtuxo!mtunh!mtung!mtunf!ariel!vax135!cornell!uw-beaver!tektronix!hplabs!pesnta!pertec!kontron!cramer From: cramer@kontron.UUCP (Clayton Cramer) Newsgroups: net.politics.theory Subject: Re: Social Order and Mayhem : Re to Cramer Message-ID: <349@kontron.UUCP> Date: Mon, 8-Jul-85 18:58:54 EDT Article-I.D.: kontron.349 Posted: Mon Jul 8 18:58:54 1985 Date-Received: Sat, 13-Jul-85 11:19:21 EDT References: <298@spar.UUCP> <2380037@acf4.UUCP> <657@whuxl.UUCP> <2325@topaz.ARPA> <662@whuxl.UUCP> <291@kontron.UUCP> <674@whuxl.UUCP> Organization: Kontron Electronics, Irvine, CA Lines: 69 > > From Clayton Cramer: > > If traffic in New Jersey is libertarian in nature, it's the only > > thing about New Jersey that is. > > > > Seriously, my experience is that in the absence of operating traffic > > signals, and where the right of way is not clear, most people drive > > *very* cautiously, because they desire to avoid accidents in which > > they will be injured, or at a minimum, their car will be damaged. Perhaps > > New Jersey's problem is too many years of governmental control --- I > > refuse to believe that any significant chunk of the population of > > New Jersey is so completely incapable of thinking far enough ahead > > to avoid a potentially dangerous accident. Are there that many morons > > in New Jersey? > > > > You are undoubtedly correct that *most* people drive more slowly without > traffic signals. Which just proves that a modicum of social order > helps *everyone* to achieve their goals more easily. > Social order, not government. In the absence of government or its direction, people develop social order. > Nor are most people so stupid that they will head directly for another > car. However most people are also not so noble as to do such things as > reduce their speed at their own quite clear expense for the more > abtract benefit of reducing the statistical risk of accidents to others > (or themselves). > The risk is small; the potential damage and injury is immense. Most people (almost all people, in fact), *do* reduce their speed to avoid accidents. I suggest you go spend some time driving. I frequently see people who are incompetent drivers; frequently people who are drunk, and don't realize how impaired they are; I *very* seldom see people who are so stupid as to risk an accident just to get somewhere faster. > This illustrates basic statistical laws of large numbers which > Libertarians seem to think do not apply to social groups. > Although I cannot predict that *this particular speeder* will crash > by exceeding the speed limit or by going as fast as he might given > no speed limit, statistics can predict with a fair amount of certainty > that when the average speed of *many people* is increased, there will > be XX greater accidents and deaths. This certainty and this prediction > is due to the larger number of cases for the case of many versus > one individual. > Speed isn't the only factor; variation in speed within traffic is the major factor. Your comments about statistical laws are unclear. > This confusion between *individual/particular* interests and the > *average/collective* interests is peculiarly bred by capitalist ideology. > Everyone is told that "anyone can become a millionaire". Almost everyone has the opportunity; not all take it. Look at the charming guy who runs HerbalLife. :-) > However the fact is that only a small percentage of people could > ever become millionaires even if they try. Of those trying to run > even small businesses 85% fail. People know this but they tell > themselves (and are repeatedly fostered in this illusion) that > *I* am different - *I* can beat the odds. Of course they are not > different, and the great preponderance will fail. > Of course *I* can speed and not have an accident - but in fact > everybody speeding inevitably increases the number of accidents > regardless of one's individual delusions. > > tim sevener whuxl!orb Depends on a lot of circumstances --- speed is only one.