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From: david@fisher.UUCP (David Rubin)
Newsgroups: net.games.pbm
Subject: Son of Best First Moves (Germany)
Message-ID: <689@fisher.UUCP>
Date: Thu, 27-Jun-85 21:11:26 EDT
Article-I.D.: fisher.689
Posted: Thu Jun 27 21:11:26 1985
Date-Received: Sat, 29-Jun-85 00:58:36 EDT
Distribution: net
Organization: Princeton University Department of Statistics
Lines: 73

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| "[Diplomacy is] the art of restraining power."                  |
|                                                                 |
|						- Henry Kissinger |
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It seems that the discussion of best "openings" has petered out.
After a lively discussion of the optimal tactics for France, the
limited choices open to the next country, England, apparently dampened
the discussion.  I will now "open" the discussion of Germany's first
move, and we'll see if there's any interest in continuing the exchange
of favorite Spring 1901 recipes.

There's lots that's extremely plausible for a German player, but most
of it is just bad policy.  In particular,

	(1) Germany should almost never open with an attack on Russia.
	    Most German players accept the notion that an opening
	    attack on Austria is almost always a bad idea, but seem to
	    think that a surprise attack on Russia has a good chance
	    to work out well.  In fact, an attack on Russia carries
	    precisely the same critical disadvantages that an attack on
	    Austria accrues: by abandoning the Low Countries to be
	    divvied up by France and England, Germany allows both
	    Western neighbors quick access to German home centers.
	    Even if they were not hostile at the outset, the
	    temptation will likely prove overwhelming.  This is not to
	    say it can NEVER work out, but only that German players 
	    either attack Austria too infrequently or Russia too often
	    in 1901.  It is my opinion that it is the latter that it
	    is the case.  Of course, once some Western centers are
	    secured, the parallel between attacking Russia and
	    attacking Austria becomes far less compelling...

	(2) Never, NEVER even drop a HINT to ANY power that F Kiel is
	    not going to Denmark.  Even if F Kie -> Hol, let everyone
	    know that you're planning F Kie -> Den.  There is no
	    substitute for ensuring good behavior from the Russians
	    than the belief in St. Petersburg that Berlin holds it
	    within its power to deny Russia Sweden.

	(3) Go for it.  There are three neutral centers within easy
	    reach, and occupying all three makes Germany a much safer
	    place.  Perhaps you won't get all three, perhaps you will
	    have to deal one away, but there's no good reason to 
	    choose an opening move that does not permit Germany a
	    chance to, with some astute negotiations, gain them all.
	    Even if you are crossed by an Eastern power, you can
	    defend yourself.

	(4) Encourage A Mos -> StP.  Encourage A Ven -> Pie.  If both
	    occur, you WILL gain Hol, Bel, and Den in 1901.  See, it's 
	    not a pipe dream.

If you agree so far, then you will order A Ber -> Kie, A Mun -> Ruh
about 9 times out of 10.  The question is, whither F Kie goest?  To
Holland maximizes your chance for three builds (you can SUPPORT an
attack on Bel), but to Denmark provides you with the means to punish
Russia (if you don't trust your bluffing powers) and avoids an
awkwardly placed ARMY in Denmark.  Tough choice, but I usually prefer
the latter on the grounds that if Bel remains open at the end of 1901,
the odds are greatly in Germany's favor to pick it up in 1902.
Even if you prefer F Kie -> Hol, #2 suggests that you not do it all
the time.

A common worry: what if France threatens A Bur -> Mun?  If France is
your only revealed enemy, ignore it; go for Bel anyway.  If you defend
Mun and France goes for Bel, you may have missed your best chance for
that center.  If you attack Bel and lose Mun, build two armies and
triumphantly reclaim Mun in 1902.

					David Rubin
			{allegra|astrovax|princeton}!fisher!david