Relay-Version: version B 2.10 5/3/83; site utzoo.UUCP Posting-Version: version B 2.10.1 6/24/83; site mmintl.UUCP Path: utzoo!decvax!mcnc!philabs!pwa-b!mmintl!franka From: franka@mmintl.UUCP (Frank Adams) Newsgroups: net.sf-lovers Subject: Re: What an advanced race would come far to get... Message-ID: <479@mmintl.UUCP> Date: Fri, 12-Jul-85 13:02:12 EDT Article-I.D.: mmintl.479 Posted: Fri Jul 12 13:02:12 1985 Date-Received: Sun, 14-Jul-85 04:50:43 EDT References: <2389@topaz.ARPA> <467@mmintl.UUCP> <1255@uwmacc.UUCP> <549@gitpyr.UUCP> Reply-To: franka@mmintl.UUCP (Frank Adams) Distribution: na Organization: Multimate International, E. Hartford, CT Lines: 69 Keywords: reality Summary: Newsgroups: net.sf-lovers Subject: Re: What an advanced race would come far to get... Summary: Expires: References: <2389@topaz.ARPA> <467@mmintl.UUCP> <1255@uwmacc.UUCP> <549@gitpyr.UUCP> Sender: Reply-To: franka@mmintl.UUCP (Frank Adams) Followup-To: Distribution: na Organization: Multimate International, E. Hartford, CT. Keywords: reality oxygen In article <549@gitpyr.UUCP> royt@gitpyr.UUCP (Roy M. Turner) writes: > >I don't know about the statement of hydrogen and oxygen being the most common >(hydrogen is *the* most common, but oxygen's quantity escapes me), I didn't say hydrogen and oxygen were the two most common elements, just among the most common. As you say, hydrogen is the most common; next is helium. After that I am less sure, but I think carbon is third and oxygen fourth. Neon, silicon, and iron are somewhere up there, too. To unchange the subject (change it back to what it was), I think there is one thing which stands out above all others as to what an advanced race would come far to get -- living space. There are two aspects to this. First, population growth. If we assume this race has a 1% annual growth rate, their population will double every 70 years. There are (as a quick estimate) about 10 to the 10th stars in the galaxy (this may be off by an order of magnitude either way). This is about 2 to the 23rd, so it would take this race about 1600 years to fill the galaxy. (Actually, they can't do it that fast, since we are assuming a speed of light limit.) Even assuming a growth rate 1000 times slower, and adding in another factor of ten as a fudge factor, it only takes 16 million years. This is still an incredibly short time, compared to the age of the galaxy. So, we must conclude, that if a race lets its population grow at all, it will soon fill up the galaxy. There is one other assumption here, that inter- stellar travel is possible; but that is what we were assuming to start with. (It is, by the way.) So why can't a species keep its population stable? Well, it can, of course. The question is, would it? Or more directly, why should it do so, as long as there is space to expand in? Any race is going to come out of a highly competitive evolutionary process like the one we came out of, which selects strongly for growth. (Yes, I know I'm making more assumptions here.) Some fraction of such races may be content to live on their one world, but I doubt very many would. The other aspect is simple survival. If your species lives only on one world, it is vulnerable to accidents. The planet may get hit by a large meteorite. The sun may blow up. There may be a nearby supernova. A species spread around the galaxy is, as a species, much less vulnerable to such things. I believe *any* advanced race will be concerned about its long term survival. The conclusion is that if there is an advanced race in the galaxy, we should expect them to drop by to colonize some time soon. More likely, since they aren't here, we will be dropping in there sometime soon. (By the way, the above ideas are not original. They derive from what is called the Fermi paradox, named after its orignator. The paradox goes as follows (highly abbreviated): based on arguments I'm sure you have all heard, there should be tens of thousands of advanced races in the galaxy (so maybe our estimates are way off, but still a dozen or so). But by the arguments above, they should then have spread out *throughout* the galaxy. So where are they?) Sorry this ran so long, but I thought it should be said.