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From: westerm@ecn-aa.UUCP (Westerman)
Newsgroups: net.games.pbm
Subject: Re: Son of Best First Moves (Germany)
Message-ID: <47@ecn-aa.UUCP>
Date: Fri, 5-Jul-85 13:55:51 EDT
Article-I.D.: ecn-aa.47
Posted: Fri Jul  5 13:55:51 1985
Date-Received: Sat, 6-Jul-85 10:54:15 EDT
References: <689@fisher.UUCP>
Reply-To: westerm@aa.UUCP (Westerman)
Distribution: net
Organization: Electrical Engineering Department , Purdue University
Lines: 87
Summary: 

In article <689@fisher.UUCP> david@fisher.UUCP (David Rubin) writes:
>If you agree so far, then you will order A Ber -> Kie, A Mun -> Ruh
>about 9 times out of 10.  The question is, whither F Kie goest?  To
>Holland maximizes your chance for three builds (you can SUPPORT an
>attack on Bel), but to Denmark provides you with the means to punish
>Russia (if you don't trust your bluffing powers) and avoids an
>awkwardly placed ARMY in Denmark.  Tough choice, but I usually prefer
>the latter on the grounds that if Bel remains open at the end of 1901,
>the odds are greatly in Germany's favor to pick it up in 1902.
>Even if you prefer F Kie -> Hol, #2 suggests that you not do it all
>the time.
>
>					David Rubin
>			{allegra|astrovax|princeton}!fisher!david

I cannot agree more. Germany's moves, despite the appearance of great 
flexibility, are fairly well fixed for Spring and Fall '01. The interesting
question is: Knowing what Germany HAS to do, what can the other countries
do to take advantage of this information? Without a firm alliance with 
another power, any country that tries to attack Germany in '01 is just
weakening itself. Even alliances against Germany are not going to fare
too well, i.e.,
     
      France & England: With a F North Sea, A Picardy, and A Bur; most likely 
           the alliance can deny Germany one of either Denmark (if
           it is not alreay occupied), Belgium, or Munich. To do this, 
           however, forces France to not occupy Spain or Portugal and risks
           the possibility of Russia denying Norway to England. At best,
           the alliance can end up with Belgium, Norway, and Spain/Port --
           a total of three builds while Germany is kept to one build --
           Holland. Most likely, the alliance will end up with the three builds
           above while Germany has two builds -- Holland and Denmark; the 
           same end results as if the attack was not made. If Russia decides
           to join in on Germany's side, then the results could be 2 builds
           for the alliance and two builds for Germany ... not a happy 
           feeling for the alliance.

      France & Russia: With France once again moving A to Pic and A to Bur,
           she does not take advantage of Spain/Port. As Dave pointed out
           in his letter, Germany will often be able to punish Russia by
           denying her Sweden. This alliance will go down the tubes rapidly
           as it will not get many first turn builds and during '02 outside 
           forces (especially England) will harass the alliance.

      France & Austria-Hungary: This alliance of two land powers against
           another land power offers great potential. The problem is that
           the alliance is weighted in favor of France. While AH is occupied
           against Germany, wither her southern front? It would take a lot
           of smooth talking by France to get AH to join into this folly.

      England & Russia: Again, good potential in this. Both countries can
           gain and outside influences, such as France, can not help Germany
           much nor hinder England much. It should be relatively easy to
           convince France to go south and munch up Italy while Germany is
           being chewed upon. The problem is with the '01 turns. There is
           not much that can be gained by the alliance. At the best they
           will get Norway, Sweden, and Berlin -- although it would take
           a rather stupid German player to concede the latter -- while
           limiting Germany to Holland. More likely is a 2-2 split or
           a 1-2 mismatch (Norway for the alliance; Den, Hol for Germany).
           Note that Russia moving A War to Berlin makes sure that
           Germany is limited to two builds.

      England & Austria-Hungary:
      Russia & Austria-Hungary:
           Both alliances have the same problem as that of France & AH:
           wither the southern AH front? 

     In summary, despite Germany being inflexible in her moves, they turn
out not to be such bad ones. Most countries and alliances can not do much
against her, even knowing in advance what she is going to do. In almost all
cases Germany will pick up at least two, maybe three builds -- not too shabby.

                              Rick Westerman
                              {decvac,ihnp4}!pur-ee!westerm

P.S.  
  Shall we tear apart poor Italy next?

P.P.S.
  Does anyone know of a good PBC Dippy game that I could join? I've been
  playing Dippy for years and years and just last year moderated a local
  PBC game, so I'm fairly experienced. Please send mail if you know of an
  opening somewhere.