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From: ar@duke.UUCP (Andrew L. Reibman)
Newsgroups: net.games.pbm
Subject: italian openings - brief analysis
Message-ID: <6006@duke.UUCP>
Date: Thu, 11-Jul-85 11:42:36 EDT
Article-I.D.: duke.6006
Posted: Thu Jul 11 11:42:36 1985
Date-Received: Sat, 13-Jul-85 14:31:16 EDT
Organization: Duke University
Lines: 72

Line eaters beware!

The best first move saga continues....

Two fine articles have explored the best first move for Germany.
Now we move south to the sunny Mediterranean - Italy.

Italy and Austria share the dubious distinction of having
the only adjacent home centers on the map. Although the
close Austrian centers seem enticing, they are usually
poisoned fruit. It is a rare game that an early Italian invasion
can make headway against the Dual Monarchy without strong allies.
More likely, both Italy and Austria`s initial growth will be stunted,
leaving them to be snapped up by the emerging powers around them.
If Italy lines up with a Russo-Turkish alliance, Austria may
fall quickly but Italy will likely be the next victim.

For the fall primary Italian Options follow:

(1) A Ven - Tyr, A Rom-Ven, F Nap-Ion
(2) A Ven - Tri, A Rom-Ven, F Nap-Ion

If you must - these are the two spring attacks on Austria. Hopefully
Austria is caught unawares and is going for three builds or Russia
(anything less will bog down in a long war). If a center is gained in the 
spring (2), Greece can be attacked in the fall without Turkish
help. This is risky, as the second fleet is really needed, even
if the Turks are active allies.


(3) A Ven H, A Rom-Apu, F Nap-Ion

Probably the most common single opening for Italy. It allows the
capture of Tunis by convoy, or if a northern invasion threatens,
with the fleet. Stronger, pro-austrian moves involve simultaneous
demilitaization of Venice and Trieste (probably to Tuscany). This
opening allows the classic Lepanto or an attack on France in 1902.

(4) A Ven-Pie, A Rom-Ven, F Nap-Tyr
(5) A Ven-Pie, A Rom-Tus, F Nap-Tyr

These moves are openly hostile to France. The second shows greater
trust in Austria (what are you doing attacking France if the
Austrians are streaming across the border?).  The key question
is "when to attack France?" It may seem that participating in
a three way attack on France would be profitable - but -
in all likelihood this is probably the worst time. Given that
France falls quickly (3:1 - should take 3 seasons) where do you
think those English fleets will go? Its a long way from the
Mid-Atlantic to the Barents. France should only be attacked 
if it is on the 2 side of a 2:1 northern split. In this case,
a gambit is to sacrifice Tunis in order to push the Fleet to Wes in
1901. This will allow you to force the Atlantic in 1902.
This should probably only be attempted if Marseilles' capture
seems likely (e.g. the German's in Burgundy).


Postscript:

Italy more than any other player must concentrate on "balance of power".
If a single dominant power emerges in either the East or West it is probable
that Italy will be its next victim. Therefore, more than any 
other player and Italian's best 1901 is strategy is to wait and see.

A final aside:

I have an opening in an e-mail diplomacy game due to start this weekend.
Players should preferably be withing two (or at most three) hops of my
site. Send vitals plus a preference list.

	Andrew Reibman
	...!{ihnp4,allegra}!duke!ar