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From: mmt@dciem.UUCP (Martin Taylor)
Newsgroups: can.politics
Subject: Re: Lotteries
Message-ID: <1629@dciem.UUCP>
Date: Fri, 12-Jul-85 17:22:41 EDT
Article-I.D.: dciem.1629
Posted: Fri Jul 12 17:22:41 1985
Date-Received: Fri, 12-Jul-85 20:17:36 EDT
References: <1121@ubc-cs.UUCP> <1110@mnetor.UUCP> <695@lsuc.UUCP> <1218@mnetor.UUCP> <702@lsuc.UUCP> <1243@utcsri.UUCP> <1268@mnetor.UUCP> <12 Jul 85 21:22:41 GMT
Reply-To: mmt@dciem.UUCP (Martin Taylor)
Distribution: can
Organization: D.C.I.E.M., Toronto, Canada
Lines: 42
Summary: 


>>No, lotteries aren't immoral - but the people who participate in them
>>to the point of financial strain are sick (exactly the same as compulsive 
>>gamblers (horse bettors etc.) similarly alcoholics) and should be treated.  
>
>Well, yes, they're sick, but not in "exactly the same [way] as...".  The
>cure for their disease is a better life and more money.  Most lottery-ticket
>buyers -- and I believe the best surveys show this -- are people who aren't
>very well off, have grungy jobs, and are middling desperate about their lives.
>You're not a typical buyer.

Most PEOPLE "aren't very well off, have grungy jobs, and are middling
desperate about their lives. The unanswered question is: are such people
more or less likely to buy lottery tickets (which they probably can't
afford) than are people who are well off or are happy with their jobs
or lives?  I have no idea of the answer, but I doubt that people are
as likely to be ruined by addiction to lotteries as they are by addiction
to tobacco or alcohol.  I don't think any of these things are immoral,
just dangerous if carried to extremes (like drinking water).

Also, to put some oil on troubled flames:  is there anything so wrong
with profiting from people's stupidity (if indeed lottery playing is stupid)
when the consequences have been clearly pointed out to the victims?

[Note: I'm not so sure the analysis from expected value is appropriate
to the lottery situation.  The variance of gain is very high in comparison
to its expectation, since one can't buy enough tickets in a lifetime
to smooth the statistics.  Also, one big win more than compensates for all
the tickets one could reasonably buy (or even unreasonably buy).  This
win could make a big difference in one's lifestyle, whereas all the
losses combined are unlikely to make much of a change.  The expected
utility of the lottery may well be positive, even when the expected
gain is negative.  These two factors (high variance, and expected
utility) make it far from obvious that playing lotteries is stupid.
For the record, I buy lottery tickets for people at Xmas, and once
or twice a year otherwise.  So far, I guess the net gain is about
minus a couple of hundred dollars over several years.]
-- 

Martin Taylor
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