Relay-Version: version B 2.10 5/3/83; site utzoo.UUCP
Posting-Version: version B 2.10.2 9/18/84 exptools; site whuxl.UUCP
Path: utzoo!watmath!clyde!burl!ulysses!mhuxr!mhuxt!houxm!whuxl!orb
From: orb@whuxl.UUCP (SEVENER)
Newsgroups: net.politics.theory
Subject: Social Order and Mayhem : Re to Cramer
Message-ID: <674@whuxl.UUCP>
Date: Tue, 2-Jul-85 18:02:02 EDT
Article-I.D.: whuxl.674
Posted: Tue Jul  2 18:02:02 1985
Date-Received: Wed, 3-Jul-85 20:30:09 EDT
References: <298@spar.UUCP> <2380037@acf4.UUCP> <657@whuxl.UUCP> <2325@topaz.ARPA> <662@whuxl.UUCP> <291@kontron.UUCP>
Organization: AT&T Bell Laboratories, Whippany
Lines: 49

> From Clayton Cramer: 
> If traffic in New Jersey is libertarian in nature, it's the only
> thing about New Jersey that is.
> 
> Seriously, my experience is that in the absence of operating traffic
> signals, and where the right of way is not clear, most people drive
> *very* cautiously, because they desire to avoid accidents in which
> they will be injured, or at a minimum, their car will be damaged.  Perhaps
> New Jersey's problem is too many years of governmental control --- I
> refuse to believe that any significant chunk of the population of
> New Jersey is so completely incapable of thinking far enough ahead
> to avoid a potentially dangerous accident.  Are there that many morons
> in New Jersey?
> 
 
You are undoubtedly correct that *most* people drive more slowly without
traffic signals.  Which just proves that a modicum of social order
helps *everyone* to achieve their goals more easily.
 
Nor are most people so stupid that they will head directly for another
car.  However most people are also not so noble as to do such things as
reduce their speed at their own quite clear expense for the more
abtract benefit of reducing the statistical risk of accidents to others
(or themselves).
 
This illustrates basic statistical laws of large numbers which
Libertarians seem to think do not apply to social groups.
Although I cannot predict that *this particular speeder* will crash
by exceeding the speed limit or by going as fast as he might given
no speed limit, statistics can predict with a fair amount of certainty
that when the average speed of *many people* is increased, there will
be XX greater accidents and deaths.  This certainty and this prediction
is due to the larger number of cases for the case of many versus
one individual.
 
This confusion between *individual/particular* interests and the
*average/collective* interests is peculiarly bred by capitalist ideology.
Everyone is told that "anyone can become a millionaire".
However the fact is that only a small percentage of people could
ever become millionaires even if they try.  Of those trying to run
even small businesses 85% fail.  People know this but they tell
themselves (and are repeatedly fostered in this illusion) that
*I* am different - *I* can beat the odds.  Of course they are not
different, and the great preponderance will fail.
Of course *I* can speed and not have an accident - but in fact
everybody speeding inevitably increases the number of accidents
regardless of one's individual delusions.
 
             tim sevener  whuxl!orb