Relay-Version: version B 2.10 5/3/83; site utzoo.UUCP Path: utzoo!watmath!clyde!burl!ulysses!allegra!bellcore!decvax!cca!ima!inmet!nrh From: nrh@inmet.UUCP Newsgroups: net.politics Subject: Re: Orphaned Response Message-ID: <2029@inmet.UUCP> Date: Sat, 9-Mar-85 02:44:56 EST Article-I.D.: inmet.2029 Posted: Sat Mar 9 02:44:56 1985 Date-Received: Mon, 11-Mar-85 05:19:36 EST Lines: 53 Nf-ID: #R:dciem:-143600:inmet:7800323:177600:2413 Nf-From: inmet!nrh Mar 7 13:28:00 1985 >***** inmet:net.politics / dciem!mmt / 12:01 pm Mar 6, 1985 > >>On another front, one little European country had no drivers licenses >>until quite recently (sorry, can't remember which). > >Belgium, and Belgian drivers were a byword for danger throughout >Europe. See a car with a "B" on it, and keep WELL CLEAR. It really >isn't a very good example in favour of non-regulation. >-- > >Martin Taylor Naturally, one would want figures to back up their reputation (on the other hand, I too have heard of their notorious reputation and will agree with you, for the moment, that there's something to it). On the other hand, give them ten years under licensure, and if they DON'T improve, it would show that the bad driving habits are not stopped by the license requirement. Unfortunately, my one other memory of the news item was that the plan was to "grandfather" the people already driving -- that is, those who could prove they'd already driven would not need to get a license. It's really too bad. It would have made a nice test. I live in Boston, Massachusetts, a place legendary for its bad drivers. I'd love to compare accident rates (normalized somehow for traffic density) between Belgium, Mexico, Italy, and Massachusetts, but can't find the figures. Anybody have access to these numbers? The point of my bringing up the Belgian experience at all was that the world didn't end if you didn't license people to drive -- that there was even one fairly modern nation that had failed to do so. Naturally, I agree that failing to license people might result (absent all other criteria) in more fatalities -- more automobile miles travelled results in more fatalities. ANYTHING that results in more people driving (without somehow causing more careful driving) results in more fatalities. It's one of the trade-offs inherent in having automobiles around at all. Thus, there's no reason to suppose that the licenses must be based on anything sensible for one to think that the fatality rate might go down -- denying licenses at random would have this effect (assuming that the licensing law was obeyed). Finally, there's no statistical reason to think (yet) that the behavior of Belgian drivers was due to absence of licensure. It will be interesting to see what happens once the non-licensed drivers cease to drive, but I suspect we'll have no way of isolating that effect from others.