Relay-Version: version B 2.10 5/3/83; site utzoo.UUCP Posting-Version: version B 2.10.1 6/24/83; site alice.UUCP Path: utzoo!watmath!clyde!burl!ulysses!allegra!alice!jj From: jj@alice.UUCP Newsgroups: net.politics Subject: Subway sheep, facts/statistics Message-ID: <3441@alice.UUCP> Date: Wed, 6-Mar-85 14:49:21 EST Article-I.D.: alice.3441 Posted: Wed Mar 6 14:49:21 1985 Date-Received: Thu, 7-Mar-85 05:47:45 EST Organization: New Jersey State Farm for the Terminally Bewildered Lines: 40 Tim Sevener points out that the chance of being killed in the NY subway is 1 in 142,000,000 rides. That is an impressive number, but it really doesn't have anything much to do with the threat that an individual faces on the subway. First, let's assume that a resident of one of the poorer areas has to use the subway to go to/from work every day. That's roughly (allowing for weekend use, etc) 700 trips per year. This means that the chance of not being murdered changes from .999999993 to the 700th power of that number, approximately .999995, making the chance of being murdered in a year, assuming that the 1/142000000 number exactly applies, about 1 in 202634 or so, which is a big difference. (Note that one can only be murdered once, so the appropriate statistic is the chance of survival of each ride, NOT the chance of death!) Now, then, let's assume that the person in question has to ride from an EL stating somewhere in Bronx/Brooklyn that is in a BAD area, and that they have to ride to work in the afternoon rush hour (as safe as any time) and BACK from work at 2:00 AM, after working second shift, which is the only work they can get. I would personally assume that it si much more dangerous on the subway at 2AM, given my personal experience, at least. Let's say it's ten times as dangerous then, (just a guess, NO hard figures, but I suspect it's an underestimate!) so we have 350 trips at one risk, yeilding a chance of safety of .999997532, and 250 trips, yeilding a chance of safety of safety of .999975349, or a chance of safety in tot of a*b of .999972881, or one chance in 36875 of being killed each year. That's not nearly as good odds as one would like. These numbers, of course, do not cover any sort of non-fatal outcome. Anyone want to compare this risk to driving an auto, etc? -- FESTINA LENTE "...rice is nice, that's what they say..." (allegra,harpo,ulysses)!alice!jj