Relay-Version: version B 2.10 5/3/83; site utzoo.UUCP Posting-Version: version B 2.10.2 9/3/84; site talcott.UUCP Path: utzoo!watmath!clyde!burl!ulysses!allegra!bellcore!decvax!genrad!panda!talcott!gjk From: gjk@talcott.UUCP (Greg Kuperberg) Newsgroups: net.politics Subject: Re: Subway sheep, facts/statistics Message-ID: <338@talcott.UUCP> Date: Fri, 8-Mar-85 00:43:28 EST Article-I.D.: talcott.338 Posted: Fri Mar 8 00:43:28 1985 Date-Received: Sun, 10-Mar-85 07:25:32 EST References: <3441@alice.UUCP> Organization: Harvard Lines: 29 > Let's say it's ten times as dangerous then, (just a guess, NO > hard figures, but I suspect it's an underestimate!) so we > have 350 trips at one risk, yeilding a chance of safety of .999997532, > and 250 trips, yeilding a chance of safety of safety of .999975349, > or a chance of safety in tot of a*b of .999972881, or one chance > in 36875 of being killed each year. That's not nearly as good > odds as one would like. > > These numbers, of course, do not cover any sort of non-fatal > outcome. > > Anyone want to compare this risk to driving an auto, etc? .. > (allegra,harpo,ulysses)!alice!jj Ok, here's a start: There are 50,000 auto fatalities/year in the US. Given that there are 230,000,000 people, that's one chance in 46000 per year for a given man, woman, or child to have it all ended by hurtling through the windshield. The Scientific American article also gave stat- istics based on age, and it's several times higher for people under 25, and astronomically higher for kids between 16 and 20. Sorry, I don't have a photographic memory, so I can't give you precise statistics. But let's say that a college bum who drinks has a one in 3000 chance each year of seeing God on the highway. --- Greg Kuperberg harvard!talcott!gjk "2*x^5-10*x+5=0 is not solvable by radicals." -Evariste Galois.