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Path: utzoo!watmath!clyde!bonnie!akgua!sdcsvax!sdcrdcf!trwrb!trwspp!spp2!kovalsky
From: kovalsky@spp2.UUCP
Newsgroups: net.sport.football
Subject: Re: 4th down choice
Message-ID: <317@spp2.UUCP>
Date: Fri, 14-Dec-84 19:46:44 EST
Article-I.D.: spp2.317
Posted: Fri Dec 14 19:46:44 1984
Date-Received: Tue, 18-Dec-84 03:22:24 EST
References: <600@asgb.UUCP>
Organization: TRW, Redondo Beach  CA
Lines: 43

>    Senario:  It's fourth down and a loooong way to a first down.
> What do you do?  The usual choice is to punt, but how about sending
> several (or more) receivers to a spot and attempt a pass?
> 
>    The results of selecting such a "mad-bomber" choice are:
> 	1. one of your receivers DOES catch -- first down
> 	2. a defender catches it -- same as a punt (in fact the
> 	   results may be better because there may be no return)
> 	3. nobody catches it -- no big problem if the line of
> 	   scrimmage is not too bad (obviously you don't attempt
> 	   a kamakazi (spelling?) pass within an sight of the
> 	   endzone)
> 
>   Football is a game of percentages (deep!).  Has anybody checked
> odds of this strategy?  It would certainly liven up the game.  I
> hate punts; they are so predictable.
> 
> Bob Devine

Probably the reason not many teams try the long bomb on 4th and long
is because the statistics for the 3 choices above are probably something
like:

1. Complete Pass	10%
2. Interception		1%
3. Incomplete		89%

The reason the interception rate would be low is precisely the reason 
you state: it would be like a punt, so in ALMOST ALL cases a coach would
tell his defensive backs to BAT THE BALL DOWN, not catch it. It would take
a mental error (or lots of run-back room) for a player to intercept on
4th and long.

Given that most of the time it would lead to an incomplete (or sack, one
choice you didn't mention), it is not surprising to see teams punt in this
situation. If they have a long yardage situation and they give up the ball,
there is a good chance that the line of scrimmage is in their own territory.

It may be boring to punt, but it's almost always the right thing to do.
Now, in a 4th and short yardage situation, that's a whole different story...
-----
Bruce Kovalsky 
..trwrb!trwspp!spp2!kovalsky