Relay-Version: version B 2.10 5/3/83; site utzoo.UUCP
Posting-Version: version B 2.10.2 9/18/84; site ames.UUCP
Path: utzoo!watmath!clyde!burl!ulysses!allegra!mit-eddie!godot!harvard!seismo!hao!ames!eugene
From: eugene@ames.UUCP (Eugene Miya)
Newsgroups: net.micro
Subject: Re: 4->8->16->32->64? bit micros
Message-ID: <707@ames.UUCP>
Date: Sat, 15-Dec-84 20:06:13 EST
Article-I.D.: ames.707
Posted: Sat Dec 15 20:06:13 1984
Date-Received: Mon, 17-Dec-84 03:55:41 EST
Distribution: net
Organization: NASA-Ames Research Center, Mtn. View, CA
Lines: 36

Some time ago, there was some discussion about the likelihood of
64-bit micros and possible future trends.  One morning at 6 AM while
driving to the snow, I pondered several things.

1) We probably will have 64-bit micros, contrary to what some people
belived.  I think there are several reasons for this:
a) there has been a considerable jump in the number of manufacturers of
64-bit machines in the last few years: Cray, CDC, Denelcor, ELXSI, Convex,
and so on.
b) makers of 32-bit supercomputers such as the TI ASC have not faired will
in the marketplace.
c) Wafer scale technology is probably the right scale at the right time
for this to happen.  Just a couple of more problems, and we'll be better off.
d) Manufacturing technology was the reason why the super, mini, micro, etc.
distinctions were made.  Now the gap is closing been micros and
supercomputers.  What is the real difference between micros and minis these
days?
2) Based on this, I note from a local DECUS presentation, that the VAX 8600
with an even more complex instruction set than the 780, two years late, might
be among the last of the CISC 32-bit machines [there might be more].
a) The 8600 is pipelined.  Techniques used in bigger machines.  I suspect
we will be seeing more machines with vector registers and pipelining,
especially in future micros.  Vector registers might not be used much,
by neither are many instructions on CISC machines.

This raises several questions: is DEC considering 64-bit architectures, and
would VMS be ported?  Unix has been moved to several 64-bit machines.
Will we be seeing lots of 32-bit compatibility mode?  Don't forget
that today's micros have the power of yesterday's supercomputers, doesn't
this mean that today's supercomputers will be tomorrow's micros? Are we
writing tomorrow's dusty decks?

--eugene miya
  NASA Ames Research Center
  {hplabs,ihnp4,dual,hao,vortex}!ames!aurora!eugene
  emiya@ames-vmsb.ARPA