Relay-Version: version B 2.10 5/3/83; site utzoo.UUCP
Posting-Version: version B 2.10.2 9/18/84; site brl-tgr.ARPA
Path: utzoo!watmath!clyde!bonnie!akgua!sdcsvax!dcdwest!ittvax!decvax!genrad!wjh12!talcott!harvard!seismo!brl-tgr!jcp
From: jcp@brl-tgr.ARPA (Joe Pistritto )
Newsgroups: net.politics
Subject: Re: Re: Controlling Nuclear Weapons
Message-ID: <6173@brl-tgr.ARPA>
Date: Thu, 29-Nov-84 13:05:49 EST
Article-I.D.: brl-tgr.6173
Posted: Thu Nov 29 13:05:49 1984
Date-Received: Mon, 3-Dec-84 12:32:18 EST
References: <1133@drusd.UUCP> <2082@randvax.UUCP>
Reply-To: jcp@brl-tgr.ARPA (Joe Pistritto )
Organization: Ballistic Research Lab
Lines: 32
Summary: 

Re the Soviets preparing for a nuclear war:

	Lets remember that Russia was absolutely devastated by World War II
(in fact, the casualty rates approach those of several nuclear war scenarios).
In terms of economic damage, it was probably GREATER than many possible
nuclear wars.  (the Soviets actually  lost control of most of their
major cities, and several more, (Leningrad, Stalingrad, etc.), were
destroyed as thouroughly as by nuclear weapons).

	It is therefore entirely reasonable for the Soviets to prepare to
fight a nuclear war.  Russia didn't start World War II, but it happened
anyway.  Similarly, any reasonable Russian would look at the situation and
say, 'Well, assuming I believe that our Government would never start such
a thing, the nuclear war still might occur, (if the US started it, or
China, or anyone else)'.  Hence, civil defense preparations, etc.

	Now, of course, being well prepared, (which is reasonable without
malicious intent), would provide a substantial lowering of the risks of
nuclear war, (as viewed from the perspective of the Soviet military), making
it less likely to avoid the event.  (this is the malicious part of the
problem).

	On the other hand, I quite agree with the logic shown by the
Russians here.  Being eminently practical people, they are preparing
for something THAT REALLY MIGHT HAPPEN.  As soon as Americans face up
to the real possibilities here, I expect a crash program, (typical
American style), to prepare here as well.  We actually did a little
of this in the 50s, (which was exactly the right thing to be doing),
but for some reason stopped doing it in the 60s.  (Got distracted,
I presume).  Oh well.

						-JCP-