Relay-Version: version B 2.10 5/3/83; site utzoo.UUCP Posting-Version: version B 2.10.1 6/24/83; site dciem.UUCP Path: utzoo!dciem!mmt From: mmt@dciem.UUCP (Martin Taylor) Newsgroups: net.flame,net.politics Subject: Re: Bastille mentality alive and well in USA Message-ID: <1235@dciem.UUCP> Date: Thu, 29-Nov-84 18:38:17 EST Article-I.D.: dciem.1235 Posted: Thu Nov 29 18:38:17 1984 Date-Received: Thu, 29-Nov-84 19:23:36 EST References: <259@spp2.UUCP> <1220@dciem.UUCP>Reply-To: mmt@dciem.UUCP (Martin Taylor) Organization: D.C.I.E.M., Toronto, Canada Lines: 44 Summary: In article geb@cadre.UUCP writes: Postulate: The death penalty reduces the chance that the killer will kill again. If: There is a finite chance that a killer let off without the death penalty will kill you. Then: The death penalty reduces the probability that you will be murdered. Q.E.D. ============= Unfortunately, Q.E.D. translates to "Which was to be demonstrated", and usually follows a mathematical proof. In this case, necessary assumptions have not been stated. The "If:" part should have added: "and the execution does not increase the probability that someone else will kill you." It is this postulate that is in question. A note has been posted to me and to the net to the effect that for a week after the announcement that someone was condemned to death the murder rate declined slightly. This is evidence to support the subsidiary assumption. On the other hand, there is also evidence to suggest that places that remove the death penalty experience a reduction in the murder rate. That suggests the opposite. If someone could post evidence about the long-term effects of the death penalty on the murder rate, it would help this discussion. A-priori arguments are nice, but don't often work in social behaviour. A stronger a-priori argument says that people proved to have killed more than once will be more likely than most to kill again. Such people might well be executed with an overall reduction in the murder rate. Often, however, the argument for restricted capital punishment favours the death penalty for killing law officers but not for killing ordinary citizens. Since some people who kill law officers are in some way looking for a psychologically acceptable way to commit suicide, that argument seems wrong. It could lead to more murders of law officers. -- Martin Taylor {allegra,linus,ihnp4,floyd,ubc-vision}!utzoo!dciem!mmt {uw-beaver,qucis,watmath}!utcsrgv!dciem!mmt