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Posting-Version: version B 2.10.1 6/24/83; site mgweed.UUCP
Path: utzoo!watmath!clyde!burl!ulysses!mhuxj!ihnp4!mgnetp!mgweed!rjr
From: rjr@mgweed.UUCP (Bob Roehrig)
Newsgroups: net.ham-radio
Subject: arrl propagation forecast bulletin nr 40
Message-ID: <12806@mgweed.UUCP>
Date: Mon, 1-Oct-84 19:09:59 EDT
Article-I.D.: mgweed.12806
Posted: Mon Oct  1 19:09:59 1984
Date-Received: Wed, 3-Oct-84 08:27:08 EDT
Organization: AT&T Consumer Products - Montgomery Illinois
Lines: 32


qst de k9eui
hr propagation forecast bulletin nr 40   from arrl headquarters
newington ct  october 1, 1984
to all radio amateurs  bt

solar flux data for july through september make a good case for
last  weeks  statement thast the end of solar cycle 21 could be
near.  the flux high for july was 93.   the  first  93  of  the
rising  cycle  came  in february, 1977.  the september average,
78, relates to march 1977, in the same way.  the weeks low, 79,
was  last  seen in november 1976, when cycle 21 was a mere four
months old.

if fall dx results thus far have been  below  expectations,  it
could  be  because  the  qst  charts from july on were based on
solar flux values between 12 and 17 percent of  those  actually
observed.   this  condition  now  seems leikely to apply to the
charts in october qst as well.

the past week did not bring the rise that had been indicated by
new   solar  activity  observed  one  solar  rotation  earlier.
instead, the solar flux staggered along in the  low  seventies,
then  dropped  to  an  eight year low of 79 on the 20th, but no
large upswing  is  expected.  rather  the  prospects  are   for
generally  poor  conditions  through  october 3.  the beginning
of  the  forecast  week  should  be  quite  good,   but    with
continuing low maximum useable frequencies.

american sunspot numbers  for  september  20  through  27  were
between 0 and 9 with a mean of 3.1  ar