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From: rjr@mgweed.UUCP (Bob Roehrig)
Newsgroups: net.ham-radio
Subject: arrl propagation forecast bulletin nr 42
Message-ID: <12862@mgweed.UUCP>
Date: Mon, 15-Oct-84 18:40:46 EDT
Article-I.D.: mgweed.12862
Posted: Mon Oct 15 18:40:46 1984
Date-Received: Tue, 16-Oct-84 07:48:39 EDT
Organization: AT&T Consumer Products - Montgomery Illinois
Lines: 30

qst de k9eui
hr propagation forecast nr 42  from arrl headquarters
newington ct  october 15, 1984
to all radio amateurs  bt

the solar flux has been below predicted levels  for  more  than
four months, and it has run close to minimum values since early
september.  currently, flux numbers are  more  than  20  points
below  the  96  used  for the prediction charts in october qst.
thus, when 21 and 28 mhz are normally at their best, 28 mhz  is
useful only on transequatorial or other low latitude paths, and
21 mhz is behaving more like 28 mhz was expected to be.  unless
solar  activity  increases markedly, the rest of this year will
be very different  from  the  printed  predictions,  which  are
prepared far in advance of their appearance in qst.

as for the week ahead, geomagnetic activity was headed downward
at  bulletin  time.   dx conditions were fair to good, and will
continue so through about the 16th.  higher  geomagnetic  field
activity is expected most of the time through the 25th, but the
months end should be the best of the entire autumn  dx  season,
especially  on high latitude paths.  if sunspot activity rises,
the effects on dx in late october could be very favorable.   if
current flux levels continue, 14 mhz and lower frequencies will
be the dx mainstays for october and early november in  all  but
the southern tier of states.

american sunspot numbers for october 4 through 10 were  between
0 and 15 with a mean of 5.9  ar