Relay-Version: version B 2.10 5/3/83; site utzoo.UUCP Posting-Version: version B 2.10.2 8/7/84; site ucbvax.ARPA Path: utzoo!linus!philabs!cmcl2!seismo!uwvax!harvard!wjh12!genrad!decvax!decwrl!amd!dual!ucbvax!medin From: medin@ucbvax.ARPA (Milo Medin) Newsgroups: net.politics Subject: Re: Nuclear War casualties Message-ID: <2676@ucbvax.ARPA> Date: Thu, 18-Oct-84 19:39:59 EDT Article-I.D.: ucbvax.2676 Posted: Thu Oct 18 19:39:59 1984 Date-Received: Sat, 20-Oct-84 07:09:46 EDT References: <394@wucs.UUCP> <90@whuxk.UUCP> <2730@ucbcad.UUCP> <284@whuxl.UUCP> <2522@ucbvax.ARPA> <288@whuxl.UUCP> Organization: University of California at Berkeley Lines: 41 !*FLAME ON*! Good grief!!! Is that the kind of analysis you are using???!! That is ludicrous! You are assuming that you can distribute overpressure without regard for the non-linearity of blast. You say, well 1 hiroshima bomb killed x people, then 15000 hiroshima equivilents will kill 15000x people! Thats pure garbage! Didnt you ever take a physics course? The important thing to realize when calculating casualty figures is population density. The fact that the soviet union is not nearly as urbanized as the US makes an extraordinary difference. This is the same type of mush-thinking that characterizes people who are motivated by hysterical emotion and no facts. I think any person who can possesses a crude form of logic can see thru your argument. This entire argument about blowing up the world must be some form of Soviet disinformation. It has no relation to reality at all. Again, if anyone can support the claim about be able to blow up the world x times over, using scientific data, I'd be glad to know about it, and the reason they havent told anyone in the trade about it. *flame off* About Nuclear Winter. I have looked at the report and talked to some of its principles. Its an interesting paper. But there must be a lot more work done before it can even be considered as a part of national policy considerations. Work is presently going on at LLL and at several other sites to see if its viable enough to be taken very seriously, and also to determine what threshold of nuclear exchange would trigger such a reaction. But that is not something I'd be willing to believe the Soviets believe. There are many scientists who think its bogus. I will wait and see. As I said, I've worked on simulation stuff myself, and you have to make lots of assumptions about the environment for forming a model. All those assumptions may not be true. Milo