Relay-Version: version B 2.10 5/3/83; site utzoo.UUCP Posting-Version: version B 2.10.1 6/24/83; site eosp1.UUCP Path: utzoo!watmath!clyde!burl!ulysses!allegra!princeton!eosp1!robison From: robison@eosp1.UUCP (Tobias D. Robison) Newsgroups: net.ai Subject: Re: fuzzy poker Message-ID: <1164@eosp1.UUCP> Date: Tue, 9-Oct-84 12:39:15 EDT Article-I.D.: eosp1.1164 Posted: Tue Oct 9 12:39:15 1984 Date-Received: Wed, 10-Oct-84 04:26:54 EDT References: <12302@sri-arpa.UUCP> <548@ames.UUCP> <578@gloria.UUCP> Reply-To: robison@eosp1.UUCP (Tobias D. Robison) Organization: Exxon Office Systems, Princeton Lines: 29 I disagree that poker bluffing can be reduced to probability tables unless one of the following is true: - There are limits on the betting such that you can always decide before anteing whether you will have enough money to stay in the pot to the end. - OR, you have an infinite amount of money. In the more normal case that pots can get out of hand (especially when there is no limit), you cannot usefully reduce bluffing to an exercise in probability. To put it simply, you cannot guarantee that therer will be enough of the really large pots to get a statistically signifigant break from the exercise of random alternatives. If your probability edge gives you a consistent advantage of 5 cents on every $10 pot, but the evening also includes one $2,000 pot, your success for the evening will really depend upon how you do in that one pot. Under the circumstances, you will do better if you know how to read other players, and can sometimes vary from making random decisions. There are psychological advantages and disadvantages to be gained from persuading the other players that you are bluffing based strictly upon random probabilities. I think you could make more money in the long run if you didn't always convince people of this, but simply reserved the potential, and and the procedure, as strategical weapons. - Toby Robison (not Robinson!) allegra!eosp1!robison or: decvax!ittvax!eosp1!robison or (emergency): princeton!eosp1!robison