Relay-Version: version B 2.10 5/3/83; site utzoo.UUCP
Posting-Version: version B 2.10.2 8/7/84; site ucbvax.ARPA
Path: utzoo!linus!philabs!cmcl2!seismo!uwvax!harvard!wjh12!genrad!decvax!decwrl!amd!dual!ucbvax!medin
From: medin@ucbvax.ARPA (Milo Medin)
Newsgroups: net.politics
Subject: Re: Nuclear War casualties
Message-ID: <2676@ucbvax.ARPA>
Date: Thu, 18-Oct-84 19:39:59 EDT
Article-I.D.: ucbvax.2676
Posted: Thu Oct 18 19:39:59 1984
Date-Received: Sat, 20-Oct-84 07:09:46 EDT
References: <394@wucs.UUCP> <90@whuxk.UUCP> <2730@ucbcad.UUCP> <284@whuxl.UUCP> <2522@ucbvax.ARPA> <288@whuxl.UUCP>
Organization: University of California at Berkeley
Lines: 41

!*FLAME ON*!

Good grief!!!  Is that the kind of analysis you are using???!!

That is ludicrous!  You are assuming that you can distribute 
overpressure without regard for the non-linearity of blast.
You say, well 1 hiroshima bomb killed x people, then 15000 hiroshima
equivilents will kill 15000x people!  Thats pure garbage!  Didnt
you ever take a physics course?  The important thing to realize when
calculating casualty figures is population density.  The fact that
the soviet union is not nearly as urbanized as the US makes an
extraordinary difference.  This is the same type of mush-thinking
that characterizes people who are motivated by hysterical emotion
and no facts.  I think any person who can possesses a crude form
of logic can see thru your argument.

This entire argument about blowing up the world must be some form
of Soviet disinformation.  It has no relation to reality at all.
Again, if anyone can support the claim about be able to blow up
the world x times over, using scientific data, I'd be glad to
know about it, and the reason they havent told anyone in
the trade about it.	

*flame off*

About Nuclear Winter.  I have looked at the report and talked to
some of its principles.  Its an interesting paper.  But there must
be a lot more work done before it can even be considered as a part
of national policy considerations.  Work is presently going on at LLL
and at several other sites to see if its viable enough to be taken
very seriously, and also to determine what threshold of nuclear
exchange would trigger such a reaction.  But that is not something
I'd be willing to believe the Soviets believe.  There are many scientists
who think its bogus.  I will wait and see.  As I said, I've worked
on simulation stuff myself, and you have to make lots of assumptions
about the environment for forming a model.  All those assumptions
may not be true.


				Milo