Relay-Version: version B 2.10 5/3/83; site utzoo.UUCP Posting-Version: version B 2.10.1 6/24/83; site mgweed.UUCP Path: utzoo!watmath!clyde!burl!ulysses!mhuxj!ihnp4!mgnetp!mgweed!rjr From: rjr@mgweed.UUCP (Bob Roehrig) Newsgroups: net.ham-radio Subject: arrl propagation forecast bulletin nr 42 Message-ID: <12862@mgweed.UUCP> Date: Mon, 15-Oct-84 18:40:46 EDT Article-I.D.: mgweed.12862 Posted: Mon Oct 15 18:40:46 1984 Date-Received: Tue, 16-Oct-84 07:48:39 EDT Organization: AT&T Consumer Products - Montgomery Illinois Lines: 30 qst de k9eui hr propagation forecast nr 42 from arrl headquarters newington ct october 15, 1984 to all radio amateurs bt the solar flux has been below predicted levels for more than four months, and it has run close to minimum values since early september. currently, flux numbers are more than 20 points below the 96 used for the prediction charts in october qst. thus, when 21 and 28 mhz are normally at their best, 28 mhz is useful only on transequatorial or other low latitude paths, and 21 mhz is behaving more like 28 mhz was expected to be. unless solar activity increases markedly, the rest of this year will be very different from the printed predictions, which are prepared far in advance of their appearance in qst. as for the week ahead, geomagnetic activity was headed downward at bulletin time. dx conditions were fair to good, and will continue so through about the 16th. higher geomagnetic field activity is expected most of the time through the 25th, but the months end should be the best of the entire autumn dx season, especially on high latitude paths. if sunspot activity rises, the effects on dx in late october could be very favorable. if current flux levels continue, 14 mhz and lower frequencies will be the dx mainstays for october and early november in all but the southern tier of states. american sunspot numbers for october 4 through 10 were between 0 and 15 with a mean of 5.9 ar