Relay-Version: version B 2.10 5/3/83; site utzoo.UUCP Posting-Version: version B 2.10.2 8/7/84; site ucbvax.ARPA Path: utzoo!watmath!clyde!burl!ulysses!ucbvax!medin From: medin@ucbvax.ARPA (Milo Medin) Newsgroups: net.politics Subject: Re: Re: Re: Re: Politics, morals and nukes Message-ID: <2533@ucbvax.ARPA> Date: Sun, 14-Oct-84 18:41:35 EDT Article-I.D.: ucbvax.2533 Posted: Sun Oct 14 18:41:35 1984 Date-Received: Tue, 16-Oct-84 03:46:27 EDT References: <394@wucs.UUCP> <90@whuxk.UUCP> <2730@ucbcad.UUCP> <284@whuxl.UUCP> <2522@ucbvax.ARPA> <2740@ucbcad.UUCP> Organization: University of California at Berkeley Lines: 41 Wayne, I am disputing the casualty figures, not stating that a nuclear war can be fought and won. Certainly, even 10% casualties would create massive disruption of society. But what constitutes a victory in this arena is very unclear. My mind is not made up on whether or not such a war is winnable. Rather, I would prefer to avoid finding out. However, the Soviets believe it is winnable, and regardless of what the truth is, we must deal with them on what their perceptions are. Dealing with people without taking into account fundamentally different assumptions about strategy is a VERY dangerous thing to do. This is somewhat relatied to my feelings about Nuclear Winter. That is, while it may be true (which I am not conceeding), the leadership of a major government will not use this as the basis for any sort of policy, unless they are sure it is a real effect. Unfortunatly, there is only one way to know for sure. I should point out I have looked at the study, and while they make some dubious assumptions, I dont consider it a shoddy piece of work. But it isnt the gospel truth either, and hopefully noone will ever know. I've worked on simulations myself, regarding laser design and blast wave modeling, and I can tell you its not a very accurate game for the most part. My point is, if nobody believes it, for this sort of debate, its inconsequential, because if its true, theres not anything you can do about it, but if its not, there's still some hope. I think a lot more research needs to be done in this field, but right now, its a pretty tenuous sort of thing. As for survival if its not true, mankind has a remarkable way of adapting to his environment. Clearly, there would be significant amounts of survivors, whether they would remain as one cohesive political entity is another issue. Also, I just noticed that all of the poeple engaging in this discussion are men. I am rather curious as to why women arent participating. I would imagine this newsgroup is read by a significant fraction of females as opposed to males... Milo