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From: medin@ucbvax.ARPA (Milo Medin)
Newsgroups: net.politics
Subject: Re: Re: Re: Re: Politics, morals and nukes
Message-ID: <2533@ucbvax.ARPA>
Date: Sun, 14-Oct-84 18:41:35 EDT
Article-I.D.: ucbvax.2533
Posted: Sun Oct 14 18:41:35 1984
Date-Received: Tue, 16-Oct-84 03:46:27 EDT
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Organization: University of California at Berkeley
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Wayne, I am disputing the casualty figures, not stating that a nuclear
war can be fought and won.  Certainly, even 10% casualties would
create massive disruption of society.  But what constitutes a
victory in this arena is very unclear.  My mind is not made up on
whether or not such a war is winnable.  Rather, I would prefer to
avoid finding out.  However, the Soviets believe it is winnable,
and regardless of what the truth is, we must deal with them on what
their perceptions are.  Dealing with people without taking into account
fundamentally different assumptions about strategy is a VERY
dangerous thing to do.

This is somewhat relatied to my feelings about Nuclear Winter.  That
is, while it may be true (which I am not conceeding), the leadership
of a major government will not use this as the basis for any sort
of policy, unless they are sure it is a real effect.  Unfortunatly,
there is only one way to know for sure.  I should point out I have
looked at the study, and while they make some dubious assumptions,
I dont consider it a shoddy piece of work.  But it isnt the gospel
truth either, and hopefully noone will ever know.  I've worked on
simulations myself, regarding laser design and blast wave modeling,
and I can tell you its not a very accurate game for the most part.
My point is, if nobody believes it, for this sort of debate,
its inconsequential, because if its true, theres not anything
you can do about it, but if its not, there's still some hope.
I think a lot more research needs to be done in this field, but 
right now, its a pretty tenuous sort of thing.

As for survival if its not true, mankind has a remarkable way of adapting to his environment.  Clearly, there would be significant
amounts of survivors, whether they would remain as one cohesive political
entity is another issue.


Also, I just noticed that all of the poeple engaging in this 
discussion are men.  I am rather curious as to why women arent
participating.  I would imagine this newsgroup is read by a
significant fraction of females as opposed to males...



				Milo