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Path: utzoo!watmath!clyde!burl!ulysses!mhuxj!ihnp4!mgnetp!mgweed!rjr
From: rjr@mgweed.UUCP (Bob Roehrig)
Newsgroups: net.ham-radio
Subject: arrl propagation forecast bulletin nr 41
Message-ID: <12843@mgweed.UUCP>
Date: Tue, 9-Oct-84 10:41:16 EDT
Article-I.D.: mgweed.12843
Posted: Tue Oct  9 10:41:16 1984
Date-Received: Wed, 10-Oct-84 04:25:22 EDT
Organization: AT&T Consumer Products - Montgomery Illinois
Lines: 32


qst de k9eui
hr propagation forecast bulletin nr  41  from arrl headquarters
newington ct  october 8, 1984
to all radio amateurs  bt

solar flux and sunspot numbers were well below predicted levels
since  early  may, and the sun has been all but devoid of spots
for the past four weeks.  this has changed all aspects  of  the
dx  picture, at a time of year that normally brings some of our
best propagation.  it is possible that a shift to higher  solar
activity  will  develop before winter, but there is no credible
evidence on which to base a prediction at this time.

there were brief spurts of dx on 28 mhz in recent days, and  21
mhz  has  been  fairly lively for short periods, but both bands
are far below what had been expected for the northern u.s.  and
adjacent areas of canada.

during the forecast week, propagation is  expected  to  improve
gradually   up   to  the  middle  of  october.   fairly  severe
disturbances will return about  october  17  through  25.   the
month  will  close  with  generally  better  propagation on all
frequencies, but with 28  and  21  mhz  not  performing  up  to
earlier  expectations  for  this autumn.  for more than a month
the sun has looked very much like it did at  the  beginning  of
the  current  solar  cycle  in  the  summer of 1976.  dx on the
higher bands has suffered markedly as a result.

american sunspot numbers for september  27  through  october  3
were between 0 and 7, with a mean of 1.3  ar