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From: robison@eosp1.UUCP (Tobias D. Robison)
Newsgroups: net.ai
Subject: Re: fuzzy poker
Message-ID: <1164@eosp1.UUCP>
Date: Tue, 9-Oct-84 12:39:15 EDT
Article-I.D.: eosp1.1164
Posted: Tue Oct  9 12:39:15 1984
Date-Received: Wed, 10-Oct-84 04:26:54 EDT
References: <12302@sri-arpa.UUCP> <548@ames.UUCP> <578@gloria.UUCP>
Reply-To: robison@eosp1.UUCP (Tobias D. Robison)
Organization: Exxon Office Systems, Princeton
Lines: 29

I disagree that poker bluffing can be reduced to probability tables
unless one of the following is true:

	- There are limits on the betting such that you can always
	  decide before anteing whether you will have enough money
	  to stay in the pot to the end.
	- OR, you have an infinite amount of money.

In the more normal case that pots can get out of hand (especially when
there is no limit), you cannot usefully reduce bluffing to an
exercise in probability.  To put it simply, you cannot guarantee that
therer will be enough of the really large pots to get a statistically
signifigant break from the exercise of random alternatives.  If your
probability edge gives you a consistent advantage of 5 cents on every
$10 pot, but the evening also includes one $2,000 pot, your success
for the evening will really depend upon how you do in that one pot.
Under the circumstances, you will do better if you know how to read
other players, and can sometimes vary from making random decisions.

There are psychological advantages and disadvantages to be gained
from persuading the other players that you are bluffing based strictly
upon random probabilities.  I think you could make more money in the
long run if you didn't always convince people of this, but simply
reserved the potential, and and the procedure, as strategical weapons.

	- Toby Robison (not Robinson!)
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