Relay-Version: version B 2.10 5/3/83; site utzoo.UUCP Posting-Version: version B 2.10.1 6/24/83; site mgweed.UUCP Path: utzoo!watmath!clyde!burl!ulysses!mhuxj!ihnp4!mgnetp!mgweed!rjr From: rjr@mgweed.UUCP (Bob Roehrig) Newsgroups: net.ham-radio Subject: arrl propagation forecast bulletin nr 40 Message-ID: <12806@mgweed.UUCP> Date: Mon, 1-Oct-84 19:09:59 EDT Article-I.D.: mgweed.12806 Posted: Mon Oct 1 19:09:59 1984 Date-Received: Wed, 3-Oct-84 08:27:08 EDT Organization: AT&T Consumer Products - Montgomery Illinois Lines: 32 qst de k9eui hr propagation forecast bulletin nr 40 from arrl headquarters newington ct october 1, 1984 to all radio amateurs bt solar flux data for july through september make a good case for last weeks statement thast the end of solar cycle 21 could be near. the flux high for july was 93. the first 93 of the rising cycle came in february, 1977. the september average, 78, relates to march 1977, in the same way. the weeks low, 79, was last seen in november 1976, when cycle 21 was a mere four months old. if fall dx results thus far have been below expectations, it could be because the qst charts from july on were based on solar flux values between 12 and 17 percent of those actually observed. this condition now seems leikely to apply to the charts in october qst as well. the past week did not bring the rise that had been indicated by new solar activity observed one solar rotation earlier. instead, the solar flux staggered along in the low seventies, then dropped to an eight year low of 79 on the 20th, but no large upswing is expected. rather the prospects are for generally poor conditions through october 3. the beginning of the forecast week should be quite good, but with continuing low maximum useable frequencies. american sunspot numbers for september 20 through 27 were between 0 and 9 with a mean of 3.1 ar