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From: cunningh@noscvax.UUCP (Robert P. Cunningham)
Newsgroups: net.philosophy
Subject: Re: science of the future = ?
Message-ID: <633@noscvax.UUCP>
Date: Mon, 24-Sep-84 05:32:55 EDT
Article-I.D.: noscvax.633
Posted: Mon Sep 24 05:32:55 1984
Date-Received: Wed, 26-Sep-84 19:18:30 EDT
References: <1317@cbneb.UUCP>
Organization: Naval Ocean Systems Center
Lines: 43

As an interested observer of various multi-disciplinary scientific
projects, I'd venture to say that science, in the near future, will be
highly dependent upon:

	1) the paradigms being developed today.
	2) the available sources of funding.

More explicitly, the concepts and theories - along with the approaches
and tools (both mental and physical) - that are in the process of
being formulated now will strongly affect the directions that
scientific efforts will take in the near future.

In order to warrant the time of scientific researchers, a branch of
research must both present "interesting" problems (not only intriguing
ones, but questions that, when resolved, result in a gain of
knowledge).

Of course, new and interesting questions are being uncovered all the
time...  Still "Delphi" techniques, relying on the insights of key
workers in various fields of research can, sometimes, forecast
research directions for possibly several decades ahead.

And, while there are exceptions, most scientific research takes a
considerable amount of time, effort and equipment.  And, thus money.
The major portion of scientific research in the U.S. is funded by the
federal government.  Governmental policy decisions very much affect
the directions of research.  A substantial portion is funded by
corportions (including internal, contract and granted research).
Corporate policy affects those directions.  Smaller portions are
funded by foundations, state governents, internally at universities,
and through private and individual monies or efforts.

Predicting policy changes that affect scientific research over the
long term is probably nearly impossible.

A final factor might well be training.  It takes time to develop a
cohort of individual scientists trained in any particular discipline,
and scientists trained in a particular discipline (say high-energy
physics) do tend to apply the techniques of that discipline to their
investigations...even when they migrate to other fields.  Looking at
the numbers of advanced degrees being granted now in various fields
would probably give some insight into the kinds of scientific work
those people will be doing over the next several decades.