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From: ddw@cornell.UUCP (David Wright)
Newsgroups: net.auto
Subject: Re:  airbags--a cost-benefit approach
Message-ID: <4840@cornell.UUCP>
Date: Mon, 18-Jul-83 19:21:05 EDT
Article-I.D.: cornell.4840
Posted: Mon Jul 18 19:21:05 1983
Date-Received: Tue, 19-Jul-83 09:09:33 EDT
Sender: ddw@cornell.UUCP
Organization: Cornell Computer Science
Lines: 39

From: ddw (David Wright)
To: net-auto

Paul Torek's analysis of the airbag issue is flawed for several reasons.

   According to an article in Reader's Digest (March 1980), General Motors
   estimated its costs at $509 to 581 1980-dollars per air-bag-equipped car.
   Ford said its costs could reach $828 by 1982.  Repair bills for replacing a
   deployed bag would be up to 2.5 times the cost of original installment.  In
   light of these facts, let me use $900 per car as my estimate of costs for
   air bag requirements (in 1983 dollars).

Let's not.  As I pointed out in an article a while back, GM has taken to
estimating airbag costs by amortizing their tooling costs over ONLY ONE YEAR.
This despite the fact that the equipment would last a lot longer than that.
If GM tries to do this, they're padding the cost something awful.

In addition, Torek's figures on cost/person do not take into account lower
injury rates and less severe injuries.  I have no figures for this, but if
we assume fewer people in fewer hospital beds, and those in the hospitals
having less severe injuries, I think the cost/person would drop by at least
an order of magnitude.  The total benefit has to include productive work
saved, hospital costs saved, funeral expenses saved, reduced public outlays
for survivors, etc.  I admit this is hard to quantify, but it sure makes
the situation look better.

The costs of replacing an airbag may be high.  However, if most of them go
off when you need them, well...how much is your health worth?  Besides, if
most go off in significant collisions (available evidence indicates that
this is a reasonable assumption), your typical tinfoil-and-balsawood car
is gonna need a lot of repairing anyway.

Hey, I \do/ wear a seatbelt...

                                 David Wright

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