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From: kwmc@hou5d.UUCP
Newsgroups: net.space
Subject: UFOs
Message-ID: <559@hou5d.UUCP>
Date: Mon, 27-Jun-83 14:05:20 EDT
Article-I.D.: hou5d.559
Posted: Mon Jun 27 14:05:20 1983
Date-Received: Tue, 28-Jun-83 01:31:30 EDT
Organization: American Bell ED&D, Holmdel, NJ
Lines: 17

I would like to ask for people's thoughts on the plausibility of the
existence of extra-terestrial UFOs (i.e. not military projects etc )
and on the probability of intelligent life existing elsewhere in the
universe.
	I heard of a theory once which stated that extra terestrial
UFOs were not likely to appear more than once every 10,000 years or
so, based on number of interstellar capable civilizations, number of
stars they would have to visit to stumble over us, number of surveys
they did each year etc etc.  Can someone give a more detailed reference 
to this theory.
	Also, In determining the probability of intelligent life on
other planets, On what statistical sample do people base their
arguments. Seems to me we have a sample of 1 (earth) and this makes it
invalid to talk of the probability of a planet having life as
1 in a billion, or 1 in a billion billion.
			Comments please !
					Ken Cochran    hou5d!kwmc