From: utzoo!decvax!harpo!npoiv!npois!cbosgd!cbosg!dir Newsgroups: net.misc Title: Re: ESP & Elementary Probability Article-I.D.: cbosg.2806 Posted: Mon Feb 28 13:08:55 1983 Received: Tue Mar 1 05:57:03 1983 References: eagle.802 Most researchers do not claim "truth" based on a single experiment unless the probability is extremely small (p < 10e-9 say). The usual process is to look at other independent tests, calculate the overall statistic, and then make a judgement. Most laymen are statistically naive, and probably would fall prey to the 1/64 trick. The problem is that by the same reasoning as the 1/64 trick, virtually ANY experiment ever run could be pure chance, including some well-acknowledged empirical effects. Even the overall statistics of a group of experiments could be chance. Where do we draw the line at what is chance and what isn't? p < .05 is an historical standard in psychology, in medicine it is more like .10. Any other standards out there?