From: utzoo!decvax!harpo!npoiv!npois!cbosgd!cbosg!dir
Newsgroups: net.misc
Title: Re: ESP & Elementary Probability
Article-I.D.: cbosg.2806
Posted: Mon Feb 28 13:08:55 1983
Received: Tue Mar  1 05:57:03 1983
References: eagle.802

Most researchers do not claim "truth" based on a single experiment
unless the probability is extremely small (p < 10e-9 say).
The usual process is to look at other independent tests,
calculate the overall statistic, and then make a judgement.
Most laymen are statistically naive, and probably would
fall prey to the 1/64 trick.

The problem is that by the same reasoning as the 1/64 trick,
virtually ANY experiment ever run could be pure chance, including
some well-acknowledged empirical effects. Even the overall
statistics of a group of experiments could be chance. 

Where do we draw the line at what is chance and what isn't?
p < .05 is an historical standard in psychology, in medicine it
is more like .10. Any other standards out there?