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Less Than Half of the States Met their Obamacare Enrollment Targets [message #251042] Mon, 05 May 2014 09:41
CyberkNight is currently offline  CyberkNight
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In the press release accompanying the administration's Obamacare enrollment report yesterday, Health and Human Services Secretary Kathleen Sebelius declared that the 8 million people who had signed up for private health plans in the law's exchanges had "exceeded expectations."

That depends on which expectations you're referring to. Looked at nationally, it's true enough, at least if you count sign-ups rather than paid enrollments. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) had initially expected 7 million people to gain private coverage through the law in 2014, an estimate it revised down to 6 million after the botched launch of the exchanges last of October. As of April 19, slightly more than 8 million had signed up, according to yesterday's report. If you're looking at actual enrollments, on the other hand, and you assume a 15 to 20 percent attrition rate due to non-payment of premiums, then the coverage total drops to somewhere between 6 and 7 million, meaning it beat the CBO's revised expectations but not the initial projection.

But it's also worth remembering that Obamacare enrollment varies quite a bit by state. And some states beat their enrollment projections handily, while others lagged far behind initial estimates. An analysis released today by the health consultancy Avalere Health compares enrollment projections in each state with total reported sign-ups, as well as with a lower figure that factors in a 15 point drop as a result of non-payment of premiums.

According to Avalere, 22 states met or exceeded enrollment expectations, with the biggest overages appearing in Florida and California, which even after attrition for non-payment hit 199 and 186 percent of their projected sign-ups, respectively. Another four states came reasonably close to hitting their estimates, reaching at least 90 percent of their projected total.

Full article: http://reason.com/blog/2014/05/02/less-than-half-of-the-stat es-met-their-o


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