| Forced back to using the abacus and odhner-based calculators? [message #408609] |
Wed, 02 June 2021 07:41  |
|
|
Originally posted by: gareth evans
This is a train of thought resulting from the current
world-wide shortage of silicon chips brought about by
the COVID crisis ...
1. 80% of chip production is by TSMC in Taiwan.
2. Taiwan is the descendant of the Nationalist China government
after the taking of the manland by the communists.
3. Red China is aggressive towards those it believes to be
part of it; witness the anti-democracy and repression currently
taking place in Hong Kong.
4. Red China has its eyes on Taiwan.
5. Should Red China invade Taiwan in pursuit of what it
believes is its rightful possession, then the west will
respond only with sabre-rattling with little more effect than
a paper tiger.
6. Red China will then control a major part of the supply
of silicon chips.
7. The rest of the world will then be stymied and will need
to revert to a microcomputer-less world.
QED
|
|
|
|
| Re: Forced back to using the abacus and odhner-based calculators? [message #408614 is a reply to message #408609] |
Wed, 02 June 2021 12:13  |
Charlie Gibbs
Messages: 5313
Registered: January 2012
Karma: 0
|
Senior Member |
|
|
On 2021-06-02, gareth evans <headstone255@yahoo.com> wrote:
> This is a train of thought resulting from the current
> world-wide shortage of silicon chips brought about by
> the COVID crisis ...
>
> 1. 80% of chip production is by TSMC in Taiwan.
> 2. Taiwan is the descendant of the Nationalist China government
> after the taking of the manland by the communists.
> 3. Red China is aggressive towards those it believes to be
> part of it; witness the anti-democracy and repression currently
> taking place in Hong Kong.
> 4. Red China has its eyes on Taiwan.
> 5. Should Red China invade Taiwan in pursuit of what it
> believes is its rightful possession, then the west will
> respond only with sabre-rattling with little more effect than
> a paper tiger.
> 6. Red China will then control a major part of the supply
> of silicon chips.
> 7. The rest of the world will then be stymied and will need
> to revert to a microcomputer-less world.
>
> QED
Not necessarily. Maybe that'll be the impetus we need to
restart our own semiconductor industry. Less powerful,
less profitable perhaps - which means that the existing
players will spurn it. It might be just the opportunity
we need for startups who are driven by something other
than profit.
--
/~\ Charlie Gibbs | They don't understand Microsoft
\ / <cgibbs@kltpzyxm.invalid> | has stolen their car and parked
X I'm really at ac.dekanfrus | a taxi in their driveway.
/ \ if you read it the right way. | -- Mayayana
|
|
|
|
| Re: Forced back to using the abacus and odhner-based calculators? [message #408617 is a reply to message #408614] |
Wed, 02 June 2021 13:44 |
|
|
Originally posted by: J. Clarke
On 2 Jun 2021 16:13:27 GMT, Charlie Gibbs <cgibbs@kltpzyxm.invalid>
wrote:
> On 2021-06-02, gareth evans <headstone255@yahoo.com> wrote:
>
>> This is a train of thought resulting from the current
>> world-wide shortage of silicon chips brought about by
>> the COVID crisis ...
>>
>> 1. 80% of chip production is by TSMC in Taiwan.
>> 2. Taiwan is the descendant of the Nationalist China government
>> after the taking of the manland by the communists.
>> 3. Red China is aggressive towards those it believes to be
>> part of it; witness the anti-democracy and repression currently
>> taking place in Hong Kong.
>> 4. Red China has its eyes on Taiwan.
>> 5. Should Red China invade Taiwan in pursuit of what it
>> believes is its rightful possession, then the west will
>> respond only with sabre-rattling with little more effect than
>> a paper tiger.
>> 6. Red China will then control a major part of the supply
>> of silicon chips.
>> 7. The rest of the world will then be stymied and will need
>> to revert to a microcomputer-less world.
>>
>> QED
>
> Not necessarily. Maybe that'll be the impetus we need to
> restart our own semiconductor industry. Less powerful,
> less profitable perhaps - which means that the existing
> players will spurn it. It might be just the opportunity
> we need for startups who are driven by something other
> than profit.
Sorry, but TSMC is not the only game in town. Samsung has the largest
single fab currently in operation. Nearly all of Intel's fabs are in
the US--they have one for a relatively low-performance process in
China. Micron has numerous US fabs. The Japanese have a large
quantity as well, and there are others scattered all over the world.
IBM's fabs are still in operation, just under different ownership. So
the end of Taiwan will not be the end of computing.
|
|
|
|
| Re: Forced back to using the abacus and odhner-based calculators? [message #408620 is a reply to message #408617] |
Wed, 02 June 2021 14:49 |
Quadibloc
Messages: 4399
Registered: June 2012
Karma: 0
|
Senior Member |
|
|
On Wednesday, June 2, 2021 at 11:44:30 AM UTC-6, J. Clarke wrote:
> IBM's fabs are still in operation, just under different ownership. So
> the end of Taiwan will not be the end of computing.
Indeed. We could just go on using our *old* computers until they
fall apart, after all.
So to send people back to slide rules and mechanical calculators,
you need something more. Say, like the Carrington event.
Unfortunately, that _could_ happen.
John Savard
|
|
|
|
| Re: Forced back to using the abacus and odhner-based calculators? [message #408621 is a reply to message #408609] |
Wed, 02 June 2021 14:54 |
Quadibloc
Messages: 4399
Registered: June 2012
Karma: 0
|
Senior Member |
|
|
On Wednesday, June 2, 2021 at 5:41:04 AM UTC-6, gareth evans wrote:
> 5. Should Red China invade Taiwan in pursuit of what it
> believes is its rightful possession, then the west will
> respond only with sabre-rattling with little more effect than
> a paper tiger.
I've seen it claimed that the U.S. has submarines trailing *every single
one* of China's nuclear submarines, and, therefore, it remains capable of
a successful first strike against China.
And, furthermore, U.S. conventional resources in the area, combined with
Taiwan's defenses, are sufficient to prevent any annexation of Taiwan from
producing a _fait accompli_ as Russia managed in the Crimea, and so China
will be faced with turning back or escalating to nuclear.
Should this optimism be proven false, though, ASML is in the Netherlands,
not Taiwan. And so while China might manage to obtain chip production
capacity for the _current_ advanced processes, if the facilities aren't destroyed
first, as microchip density continues to increase, the new fabs would all be
built outside Chinese control.
John Savard
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Re: Forced back to using the abacus and odhner-based calculators? [message #408623 is a reply to message #408617] |
Wed, 02 June 2021 15:20 |
scott
Messages: 4237
Registered: February 2012
Karma: 0
|
Senior Member |
|
|
J. Clarke <jclarke.873638@gmail.com> writes:
> On 2 Jun 2021 16:13:27 GMT, Charlie Gibbs <cgibbs@kltpzyxm.invalid>
> wrote:
>
>> On 2021-06-02, gareth evans <headstone255@yahoo.com> wrote:
>>
>>> This is a train of thought resulting from the current
>>> world-wide shortage of silicon chips brought about by
>>> the COVID crisis ...
>>>
>>> 1. 80% of chip production is by TSMC in Taiwan.
>>> 2. Taiwan is the descendant of the Nationalist China government
>>> after the taking of the manland by the communists.
>>> 3. Red China is aggressive towards those it believes to be
>>> part of it; witness the anti-democracy and repression currently
>>> taking place in Hong Kong.
>>> 4. Red China has its eyes on Taiwan.
>>> 5. Should Red China invade Taiwan in pursuit of what it
>>> believes is its rightful possession, then the west will
>>> respond only with sabre-rattling with little more effect than
>>> a paper tiger.
>>> 6. Red China will then control a major part of the supply
>>> of silicon chips.
>>> 7. The rest of the world will then be stymied and will need
>>> to revert to a microcomputer-less world.
>>>
>>> QED
>>
>> Not necessarily. Maybe that'll be the impetus we need to
>> restart our own semiconductor industry. Less powerful,
>> less profitable perhaps - which means that the existing
>> players will spurn it. It might be just the opportunity
>> we need for startups who are driven by something other
>> than profit.
>
> Sorry, but TSMC is not the only game in town. Samsung has the largest
> single fab currently in operation. Nearly all of Intel's fabs are in
> the US--they have one for a relatively low-performance process in
> China. Micron has numerous US fabs. The Japanese have a large
> quantity as well, and there are others scattered all over the world.
> IBM's fabs are still in operation, just under different ownership. So
> the end of Taiwan will not be the end of computing.
>
That's a bit misleading. Most of those plants you've mentioned are
rather old processes (e.g. 90nm, 45nm). Only TSMC is currently shipping
production 5NM parts. Intel has been having difficulties with yield
with their 10NM process. Samsung is at 7nm and struggling to go smaller.
Processor designers are designing chips for 3NM today, and there will be only one
plant capable of 2 and 3nm in the near future (TSMC, in 2022).
|
|
|
|
| Re: Forced back to using the abacus and odhner-based calculators? [message #408625 is a reply to message #408620] |
Wed, 02 June 2021 16:29 |
|
|
Originally posted by: gareth evans
On 02/06/2021 19:49, Quadibloc wrote:
> On Wednesday, June 2, 2021 at 11:44:30 AM UTC-6, J. Clarke wrote:
>
>> IBM's fabs are still in operation, just under different ownership. So
>> the end of Taiwan will not be the end of computing.
>
> Indeed. We could just go on using our *old* computers until they
> fall apart, after all.
>
> So to send people back to slide rules and mechanical calculators,
> you need something more. Say, like the Carrington event.
>
> Unfortunately, that _could_ happen.
Also today. as in the news bulletins, the DOS attack on the
Yank wholesale meat supplier.
|
|
|
|
| Re: Forced back to using the abacus and odhner-based calculators? [message #408626 is a reply to message #408623] |
Wed, 02 June 2021 16:30 |
|
|
Originally posted by: JimP
On Wed, 02 Jun 2021 19:20:22 GMT, scott@slp53.sl.home (Scott Lurndal)
wrote:
> J. Clarke <jclarke.873638@gmail.com> writes:
>> On 2 Jun 2021 16:13:27 GMT, Charlie Gibbs <cgibbs@kltpzyxm.invalid>
>> wrote:
>>
>>> On 2021-06-02, gareth evans <headstone255@yahoo.com> wrote:
>>>
>>>> This is a train of thought resulting from the current
>>>> world-wide shortage of silicon chips brought about by
>>>> the COVID crisis ...
>>>>
>>>> 1. 80% of chip production is by TSMC in Taiwan.
>>>> 2. Taiwan is the descendant of the Nationalist China government
>>>> after the taking of the manland by the communists.
>>>> 3. Red China is aggressive towards those it believes to be
>>>> part of it; witness the anti-democracy and repression currently
>>>> taking place in Hong Kong.
>>>> 4. Red China has its eyes on Taiwan.
>>>> 5. Should Red China invade Taiwan in pursuit of what it
>>>> believes is its rightful possession, then the west will
>>>> respond only with sabre-rattling with little more effect than
>>>> a paper tiger.
>>>> 6. Red China will then control a major part of the supply
>>>> of silicon chips.
>>>> 7. The rest of the world will then be stymied and will need
>>>> to revert to a microcomputer-less world.
>>>>
>>>> QED
>>>
>>> Not necessarily. Maybe that'll be the impetus we need to
>>> restart our own semiconductor industry. Less powerful,
>>> less profitable perhaps - which means that the existing
>>> players will spurn it. It might be just the opportunity
>>> we need for startups who are driven by something other
>>> than profit.
>>
>> Sorry, but TSMC is not the only game in town. Samsung has the largest
>> single fab currently in operation. Nearly all of Intel's fabs are in
>> the US--they have one for a relatively low-performance process in
>> China. Micron has numerous US fabs. The Japanese have a large
>> quantity as well, and there are others scattered all over the world.
>> IBM's fabs are still in operation, just under different ownership. So
>> the end of Taiwan will not be the end of computing.
>>
>
> That's a bit misleading. Most of those plants you've mentioned are
> rather old processes (e.g. 90nm, 45nm). Only TSMC is currently shipping
> production 5NM parts. Intel has been having difficulties with yield
> with their 10NM process. Samsung is at 7nm and struggling to go smaller.
>
> Processor designers are designing chips for 3NM today, and there will be only one
> plant capable of 2 and 3nm in the near future (TSMC, in 2022).
So... radio implants in our brains, ala Ghost in the Shell, are still
in the future ?
--
Jim
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Re: Forced back to using the abacus and odhner-based calculators? [message #408633 is a reply to message #408622] |
Wed, 02 June 2021 23:57 |
Charlie Gibbs
Messages: 5313
Registered: January 2012
Karma: 0
|
Senior Member |
|
|
On 2021-06-02, Quadibloc <jsavard@ecn.ab.ca> wrote:
> On Wednesday, June 2, 2021 at 10:14:25 AM UTC-6, Charlie Gibbs wrote:
>
>> It might be just the opportunity
>> we need for startups who are driven by something other
>> than profit.
>
> How would such startups ever attract the amount of money they need
> to start up?
Complexity is a weapon. The KISS principle is a countermeasure.
--
/~\ Charlie Gibbs | They don't understand Microsoft
\ / <cgibbs@kltpzyxm.invalid> | has stolen their car and parked
X I'm really at ac.dekanfrus | a taxi in their driveway.
/ \ if you read it the right way. | -- Mayayana
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Re: Forced back to using the abacus and odhner-based calculators? [message #408643 is a reply to message #408639] |
Thu, 03 June 2021 06:21 |
Ahem A Rivet's Shot
Messages: 4843
Registered: January 2012
Karma: 0
|
Senior Member |
|
|
On Thu, 03 Jun 2021 05:22:36 -0400
J. Clarke <jclarke.873638@gmail.com> wrote:
> Non-sequitur. How does either get the billion dollars to build the
> fab?
The same way anyone else does. AIUI they write a staged business
plan that leads to a stonking great profit and do all the other required
groundwork to prepare a proposal which they take round the all vulture
capitalists they can find (or stand) until one bites and they get the first
round backing. Then they work their backsides off and pray that they get to
IPO with some equity left in their own hands.
--
Steve O'Hara-Smith | Directable Mirror Arrays
C:\>WIN | A better way to focus the sun
The computer obeys and wins. | licences available see
You lose and Bill collects. | http://www.sohara.org/
|
|
|
|
| Re: Forced back to using the abacus and odhner-based calculators? [message #408644 is a reply to message #408609] |
Thu, 03 June 2021 07:05 |
|
|
Originally posted by: gareth evans
On 02/06/2021 23:48, Andreas Kohlbach wrote:
> On Wed, 2 Jun 2021 11:49:34 -0700 (PDT), Quadibloc wrote:
>>
>> So to send people back to slide rules and mechanical calculators,
>> you need something more. Say, like the Carrington event.
>>
>> Unfortunately, that _could_ happen.
>
> Almost happened 2012. The CME had about the same strength as the
> Carrington Event, bus missed earth by nine days.
>
I had to rush to google for that.
I'm surprised that telegraph circuits were compromised in those
days before the coming of electronics of any kind.
|
|
|
|
| Re: Forced back to using the abacus and odhner-based calculators? [message #408645 is a reply to message #408644] |
Thu, 03 June 2021 07:27 |
danny burstein
Messages: 78
Registered: October 2012
Karma: 0
|
Member |
|
|
In <s9ad1d$a1a$1@dont-email.me> gareth evans <headstone255@yahoo.com> writes:
>> Almost happened 2012. The CME had about the same strength as the
>> Carrington Event, bus missed earth by nine days.
>>
> I had to rush to google for that.
> I'm surprised that telegraph circuits were compromised in those
> days before the coming of electronics of any kind.
Keep in mind that the telegraph systems were (due
to the costs of wire and equipment) stretched out
just to the maximum, and then a touch beyond...
of levels of sensitivity. Hence anything at all
that changed the local electrical fields... would
have an impressive impact.
--
_____________________________________________________
Knowledge may be power, but communications is the key
dannyb@panix.com
[to foil spammers, my address has been double rot-13 encoded]
|
|
|
|
| Geomagnetic storms (was: Forced back to using the abacus and odhner-based calculators?) [message #408652 is a reply to message #408644] |
Thu, 03 June 2021 11:02 |
Andreas Kohlbach
Messages: 1456
Registered: December 2011
Karma: 0
|
Senior Member |
|
|
On Thu, 3 Jun 2021 12:05:15 +0100, gareth evans wrote:
>
> On 02/06/2021 23:48, Andreas Kohlbach wrote:
>> On Wed, 2 Jun 2021 11:49:34 -0700 (PDT), Quadibloc wrote:
>>>
>>> So to send people back to slide rules and mechanical calculators,
>>> you need something more. Say, like the Carrington event.
>>>
>>> Unfortunately, that _could_ happen.
>>
>> Almost happened 2012. The CME had about the same strength as the
>> Carrington Event, bus missed earth by nine days.
>>
>
> I had to rush to google for that.
I checked Wikipedia for Carrington Event which also mentioned the 2012 event.
> I'm surprised that telegraph circuits were compromised in those
> days before the coming of electronics of any kind.
Metal wires of any kind don't like that. 1989 did an CME earth and shut
down much of Eastern Canada
<https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/March_1989_geomagnetic_storm>.
Was still in the Cold War ad after radio communications went down there
was a concern the Russians jammed to prepare a nuclear strike. Must have
been chilling. I was on the other side of the pond at that time so only
learned about this even a few year ago.
--
Andreas
PGP fingerprint 952B0A9F12C2FD6C9F7E68DAA9C2EA89D1A370E0
|
|
|
|
| Re: Geomagnetic storms (was: Forced back to using the abacus and odhner-based calculators?) [message #408654 is a reply to message #408652] |
Thu, 03 June 2021 13:52 |
usenet
Messages: 556
Registered: May 2013
Karma: 0
|
Senior Member |
|
|
On Thu, 03 Jun 2021 11:02:44 -0400, Andreas Kohlbach <ank@spamfence.net> wrote:
> On Thu, 3 Jun 2021 12:05:15 +0100, gareth evans wrote:
>> On 02/06/2021 23:48, Andreas Kohlbach wrote:
>>> On Wed, 2 Jun 2021 11:49:34 -0700 (PDT), Quadibloc wrote:
>>>> So to send people back to slide rules and mechanical calculators,
>>>> you need something more. Say, like the Carrington event.
>>>>
>>>> Unfortunately, that _could_ happen.
>>>
>>> Almost happened 2012. The CME had about the same strength as the
>>> Carrington Event, bus missed earth by nine days.
>>
>> I had to rush to google for that.
>
> I checked Wikipedia for Carrington Event which also mentioned the 2012 event.
>
>> I'm surprised that telegraph circuits were compromised in those
>> days before the coming of electronics of any kind.
>
> Metal wires of any kind don't like that. 1989 did an CME earth and shut
> down much of Eastern Canada
> <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/March_1989_geomagnetic_storm>.
As I understand it, we're "overdue" for a major shift in the Earth's magnetic
poles, which historically have occurred every couple of hundred thousand years.
When that happens, it will make a CME look like a walk in the park in
comparison.
|
|
|
|
| Re: Geomagnetic storms [message #408656 is a reply to message #408654] |
Thu, 03 June 2021 14:13 |
Dan Espen
Messages: 3867
Registered: January 2012
Karma: 0
|
Senior Member |
|
|
usenet@only.tnx (Questor) writes:
> On Thu, 03 Jun 2021 11:02:44 -0400, Andreas Kohlbach <ank@spamfence.net> wrote:
>> On Thu, 3 Jun 2021 12:05:15 +0100, gareth evans wrote:
>>> On 02/06/2021 23:48, Andreas Kohlbach wrote:
>>>> On Wed, 2 Jun 2021 11:49:34 -0700 (PDT), Quadibloc wrote:
>>>> >So to send people back to slide rules and mechanical calculators,
>>>> >you need something more. Say, like the Carrington event.
>>>> >
>>>> >Unfortunately, that _could_ happen.
>>>>
>>>> Almost happened 2012. The CME had about the same strength as the
>>>> Carrington Event, bus missed earth by nine days.
>>>
>>> I had to rush to google for that.
>>
>> I checked Wikipedia for Carrington Event which also mentioned the 2012 event.
>>
>>> I'm surprised that telegraph circuits were compromised in those
>>> days before the coming of electronics of any kind.
>>
>> Metal wires of any kind don't like that. 1989 did an CME earth and shut
>> down much of Eastern Canada
>> <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/March_1989_geomagnetic_storm>.
>
> As I understand it, we're "overdue" for a major shift in the Earth's magnetic
> poles, which historically have occurred every couple of hundred thousand years.
> When that happens, it will make a CME look like a walk in the park in
> comparison.
Any good sources on what would actually happen?
The wikipedia page lacks any end of world predictions.
--
Dan Espen
|
|
|
|
| Re: Forced back to using the abacus and odhner-based calculators? [message #408658 is a reply to message #408617] |
Thu, 03 June 2021 15:28 |
|
|
Originally posted by: greymaus
On 2021-06-02, J Clarke <jclarke.873638@gmail.com> wrote:
> On 2 Jun 2021 16:13:27 GMT, Charlie Gibbs <cgibbs@kltpzyxm.invalid>
> wrote:
>
>> On 2021-06-02, gareth evans <headstone255@yahoo.com> wrote:
>>
>>> This is a train of thought resulting from the current
>>> world-wide shortage of silicon chips brought about by
>>> the COVID crisis ...
>>>
>>> 1. 80% of chip production is by TSMC in Taiwan.
>>> 2. Taiwan is the descendant of the Nationalist China government
>>> after the taking of the manland by the communists.
>>> 3. Red China is aggressive towards those it believes to be
>>> part of it; witness the anti-democracy and repression currently
>>> taking place in Hong Kong.
>>> 4. Red China has its eyes on Taiwan.
>>> 5. Should Red China invade Taiwan in pursuit of what it
>>> believes is its rightful possession, then the west will
>>> respond only with sabre-rattling with little more effect than
>>> a paper tiger.
>>> 6. Red China will then control a major part of the supply
>>> of silicon chips.
>>> 7. The rest of the world will then be stymied and will need
>>> to revert to a microcomputer-less world.
>>>
>>> QED
>>
>> Not necessarily. Maybe that'll be the impetus we need to
>> restart our own semiconductor industry. Less powerful,
>> less profitable perhaps - which means that the existing
>> players will spurn it. It might be just the opportunity
>> we need for startups who are driven by something other
>> than profit.
>
> Sorry, but TSMC is not the only game in town. Samsung has the largest
> single fab currently in operation. Nearly all of Intel's fabs are in
> the US--they have one for a relatively low-performance process in
> China. Micron has numerous US fabs. The Japanese have a large
> quantity as well, and there are others scattered all over the world.
> IBM's fabs are still in operation, just under different ownership. So
> the end of Taiwan will not be the end of computing.
>
I thought that Intel had fabs in Vietnam (Remember Vietnam?), Ireland
(Leixlip) Israel, and one in the former East Germany?
There was a review of all that sort of thing some years ago, which
seemed to conclude that chipmaking was very anti-environmental.
greymausg.mail.com
|
|
|
|
| Re: Forced back to using the abacus and odhner-based calculators? [message #408659 is a reply to message #408620] |
Thu, 03 June 2021 15:31 |
|
|
Originally posted by: greymaus
On 2021-06-02, Quadibloc <jsavard@ecn.ab.ca> wrote:
> On Wednesday, June 2, 2021 at 11:44:30 AM UTC-6, J. Clarke wrote:
>
>> IBM's fabs are still in operation, just under different ownership. So
>> the end of Taiwan will not be the end of computing.
>
> Indeed. We could just go on using our *old* computers until they
> fall apart, after all.
>
> So to send people back to slide rules and mechanical calculators,
> you need something more. Say, like the Carrington event.
>
> Unfortunately, that _could_ happen.
>
> John Savard
IMHO, any computer since about 2000 should do almost any ordinary job.
--
greymausg@mail.com
|
|
|
|
| Re: Geomagnetic storms (was: Forced back to using the abacus and odhner-based calculators?) [message #408660 is a reply to message #408654] |
Thu, 03 June 2021 15:36 |
|
|
Originally posted by: greymaus
On 2021-06-03, Questor <usenet@only.tnx> wrote:
> On Thu, 03 Jun 2021 11:02:44 -0400, Andreas Kohlbach <ank@spamfence.net> wrote:
>> On Thu, 3 Jun 2021 12:05:15 +0100, gareth evans wrote:
>>> On 02/06/2021 23:48, Andreas Kohlbach wrote:
>>>> On Wed, 2 Jun 2021 11:49:34 -0700 (PDT), Quadibloc wrote:
>>>> >So to send people back to slide rules and mechanical calculators,
>>>> >you need something more. Say, like the Carrington event.
>>>> >
>>>> >Unfortunately, that _could_ happen.
>>>>
>>>> Almost happened 2012. The CME had about the same strength as the
>>>> Carrington Event, bus missed earth by nine days.
>>>
>>> I had to rush to google for that.
>>
>> I checked Wikipedia for Carrington Event which also mentioned the 2012 event.
>>
>>> I'm surprised that telegraph circuits were compromised in those
>>> days before the coming of electronics of any kind.
>>
>> Metal wires of any kind don't like that. 1989 did an CME earth and shut
>> down much of Eastern Canada
>> <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/March_1989_geomagnetic_storm>.
>
>
> As I understand it, we're "overdue" for a major shift in the Earth's magnetic
> poles, which historically have occurred every couple of hundred thousand years.
> When that happens, it will make a CME look like a walk in the park in
> comparison.
>
We are all going to die, die horribly. Run. Unless we die of corvi*, or
laughing, first.
|
|
|
|
| Re: Forced back to using the abacus and odhner-based calculators? [message #408662 is a reply to message #408659] |
Thu, 03 June 2021 16:37 |
Andreas Kohlbach
Messages: 1456
Registered: December 2011
Karma: 0
|
Senior Member |
|
|
On 3 Jun 2021 19:31:20 GMT, greymaus wrote:
>
> On 2021-06-02, Quadibloc <jsavard@ecn.ab.ca> wrote:
>> On Wednesday, June 2, 2021 at 11:44:30 AM UTC-6, J. Clarke wrote:
>>
>>> IBM's fabs are still in operation, just under different ownership. So
>>> the end of Taiwan will not be the end of computing.
>>
>> Indeed. We could just go on using our *old* computers until they
>> fall apart, after all.
>>
>> So to send people back to slide rules and mechanical calculators,
>> you need something more. Say, like the Carrington event.
>>
>> Unfortunately, that _could_ happen.
>>
>> John Savard
>
> IMHO, any computer since about 2000 should do almost any ordinary job.
Not after a CME similar to the Carrington Event. Unless we can disconnect
everything. We ow should have enough early warning time. Time enough
(worst case some 10-20 hours) to inform all people who are likely
affected and shut down everything shortly before impact.
There is also a 50:50 chance weather earth dodges the impact or it gets
very bad, depending on the polarity of what's coming in, IIRC.
--
Andreas
|
|
|
|
| Re: Forced back to using the abacus and odhner-based calculators? [message #408664 is a reply to message #408659] |
Thu, 03 June 2021 16:59 |
|
|
Originally posted by: J. Clarke
On 3 Jun 2021 19:31:20 GMT, greymaus <maus@dmaus.org> wrote:
> On 2021-06-02, Quadibloc <jsavard@ecn.ab.ca> wrote:
>> On Wednesday, June 2, 2021 at 11:44:30 AM UTC-6, J. Clarke wrote:
>>
>>> IBM's fabs are still in operation, just under different ownership. So
>>> the end of Taiwan will not be the end of computing.
>>
>> Indeed. We could just go on using our *old* computers until they
>> fall apart, after all.
>>
>> So to send people back to slide rules and mechanical calculators,
>> you need something more. Say, like the Carrington event.
>>
>> Unfortunately, that _could_ happen.
>>
>> John Savard
>
> IMHO, any computer since about 2000 should do almost any ordinary job.
For certain values. If by "ordinary" you mean balance your checkbook,
yes. If by "ordinary" you mean handle Amazon's order entry, not so
much.
|
|
|
|
| Re: Forced back to using the abacus and odhner-based calculators? [message #408665 is a reply to message #408658] |
Thu, 03 June 2021 17:16 |
|
|
Originally posted by: J. Clarke
On 3 Jun 2021 19:28:39 GMT, greymaus <maus@dmaus.org> wrote:
> On 2021-06-02, J Clarke <jclarke.873638@gmail.com> wrote:
>> On 2 Jun 2021 16:13:27 GMT, Charlie Gibbs <cgibbs@kltpzyxm.invalid>
>> wrote:
>>
>>> On 2021-06-02, gareth evans <headstone255@yahoo.com> wrote:
>>>
>>>> This is a train of thought resulting from the current
>>>> world-wide shortage of silicon chips brought about by
>>>> the COVID crisis ...
>>>>
>>>> 1. 80% of chip production is by TSMC in Taiwan.
>>>> 2. Taiwan is the descendant of the Nationalist China government
>>>> after the taking of the manland by the communists.
>>>> 3. Red China is aggressive towards those it believes to be
>>>> part of it; witness the anti-democracy and repression currently
>>>> taking place in Hong Kong.
>>>> 4. Red China has its eyes on Taiwan.
>>>> 5. Should Red China invade Taiwan in pursuit of what it
>>>> believes is its rightful possession, then the west will
>>>> respond only with sabre-rattling with little more effect than
>>>> a paper tiger.
>>>> 6. Red China will then control a major part of the supply
>>>> of silicon chips.
>>>> 7. The rest of the world will then be stymied and will need
>>>> to revert to a microcomputer-less world.
>>>>
>>>> QED
>>>
>>> Not necessarily. Maybe that'll be the impetus we need to
>>> restart our own semiconductor industry. Less powerful,
>>> less profitable perhaps - which means that the existing
>>> players will spurn it. It might be just the opportunity
>>> we need for startups who are driven by something other
>>> than profit.
>>
>> Sorry, but TSMC is not the only game in town. Samsung has the largest
>> single fab currently in operation. Nearly all of Intel's fabs are in
>> the US--they have one for a relatively low-performance process in
>> China. Micron has numerous US fabs. The Japanese have a large
>> quantity as well, and there are others scattered all over the world.
>> IBM's fabs are still in operation, just under different ownership. So
>> the end of Taiwan will not be the end of computing.
>>
>
> I thought that Intel had fabs in Vietnam (Remember Vietnam?), Ireland
> (Leixlip) Israel, and one in the former East Germany?
I said "nearly all". The concern is over China, not Vietnam, Ireland,
Israel, or East Germany, so the only one worth mentioning was China.
There are three in Ireland, two in Israel, and one in Costa Rica. I
can find no evidence of any Intel fab, past or present, in Germany,
and no evidence of a semiconductor fab of _any_ kind having ever
existed in Vietnam.
There is an Intel assembly facility in Vietnam--an assembly facility
is not a fab--the fab makes the silicon, the assembly facility puts it
in its plastic or ceramic carrier with pins or BGA or whatever.
> There was a review of all that sort of thing some years ago, which
> seemed to conclude that chipmaking was very anti-environmental.
If someone came up with a process that turns CO2 into rainbows with no
energy input, no waste heat, and no other effects, there would be
those who argued that it was "anti-environmental". Note that I left
off the unicorns--they might belch methane.
|
|
|
|
| Re: Geomagnetic storms [message #408667 is a reply to message #408656] |
Thu, 03 June 2021 18:00 |
scott
Messages: 4237
Registered: February 2012
Karma: 0
|
Senior Member |
|
|
Dan Espen <dan1espen@gmail.com> writes:
> usenet@only.tnx (Questor) writes:
>
>> On Thu, 03 Jun 2021 11:02:44 -0400, Andreas Kohlbach <ank@spamfence.net> wrote:
>>> On Thu, 3 Jun 2021 12:05:15 +0100, gareth evans wrote:
>>>> On 02/06/2021 23:48, Andreas Kohlbach wrote:
>>>> >On Wed, 2 Jun 2021 11:49:34 -0700 (PDT), Quadibloc wrote:
>>>> >>So to send people back to slide rules and mechanical calculators,
>>>> >>you need something more. Say, like the Carrington event.
>>>> >>
>>>> >>Unfortunately, that _could_ happen.
>>>> >
>>>> >Almost happened 2012. The CME had about the same strength as the
>>>> >Carrington Event, bus missed earth by nine days.
>>>>
>>>> I had to rush to google for that.
>>>
>>> I checked Wikipedia for Carrington Event which also mentioned the 2012 event.
>>>
>>>> I'm surprised that telegraph circuits were compromised in those
>>>> days before the coming of electronics of any kind.
>>>
>>> Metal wires of any kind don't like that. 1989 did an CME earth and shut
>>> down much of Eastern Canada
>>> <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/March_1989_geomagnetic_storm>.
>>
>> As I understand it, we're "overdue" for a major shift in the Earth's magnetic
>> poles, which historically have occurred every couple of hundred thousand years.
>> When that happens, it will make a CME look like a walk in the park in
>> comparison.
>
> Any good sources on what would actually happen?
> The wikipedia page lacks any end of world predictions.
IIRC, it will take several millenia to completely shift to the
current south pole.
During that period, the surface of the planet may be exposed
to additional cosmic and solar radiation.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Re: Forced back to using the abacus and odhner-based calculators? [message #408686 is a reply to message #408665] |
Fri, 04 June 2021 16:52 |
|
|
Originally posted by: greymaus
On 2021-06-03, J Clarke <jclarke.873638@gmail.com> wrote:
> On 3 Jun 2021 19:28:39 GMT, greymaus <maus@dmaus.org> wrote:
>
>> On 2021-06-02, J Clarke <jclarke.873638@gmail.com> wrote:
>>> On 2 Jun 2021 16:13:27 GMT, Charlie Gibbs <cgibbs@kltpzyxm.invalid>
>>> wrote:
>>>> >
>>>> > QED
>>>>
>>>> Not necessarily. Maybe that'll be the impetus we need to
>>>> restart our own semiconductor industry. Less powerful,
>>>> less profitable perhaps - which means that the existing
>>>> players will spurn it. It might be just the opportunity
>>>> we need for startups who are driven by something other
>>>> than profit.
>>>
>>> Sorry, but TSMC is not the only game in town. Samsung has the largest
>>> single fab currently in operation. Nearly all of Intel's fabs are in
>>> the US--they have one for a relatively low-performance process in
>>> China. Micron has numerous US fabs. The Japanese have a large
>>> quantity as well, and there are others scattered all over the world.
>>> IBM's fabs are still in operation, just under different ownership. So
>>> the end of Taiwan will not be the end of computing.
>>>
>>
>> I thought that Intel had fabs in Vietnam (Remember Vietnam?), Ireland
>> (Leixlip) Israel, and one in the former East Germany?
>
> I said "nearly all". The concern is over China, not Vietnam, Ireland,
> Israel, or East Germany, so the only one worth mentioning was China.
>
> There are three in Ireland, two in Israel, and one in Costa Rica. I
> can find no evidence of any Intel fab, past or present, in Germany,
> and no evidence of a semiconductor fab of _any_ kind having ever
> existed in Vietnam.
>
> There is an Intel assembly facility in Vietnam--an assembly facility
> is not a fab--the fab makes the silicon, the assembly facility puts it
> in its plastic or ceramic carrier with pins or BGA or whatever.
>
>> There was a review of all that sort of thing some years ago, which
>> seemed to conclude that chipmaking was very anti-environmental.
>
> If someone came up with a process that turns CO2 into rainbows with no
> energy input, no waste heat, and no other effects, there would be
> those who argued that it was "anti-environmental". Note that I left
> off the unicorns--they might belch methane.
Thanks for that info.
|
|
|
|
| Re: Forced back to using the abacus and odhner-based calculators? [message #408687 is a reply to message #408664] |
Fri, 04 June 2021 17:01 |
|
|
Originally posted by: greymaus
On 2021-06-03, J Clarke <jclarke.873638@gmail.com> wrote:
> On 3 Jun 2021 19:31:20 GMT, greymaus <maus@dmaus.org> wrote:
>
>> On 2021-06-02, Quadibloc <jsavard@ecn.ab.ca> wrote:
>>> On Wednesday, June 2, 2021 at 11:44:30 AM UTC-6, J. Clarke wrote:
>>>
>>>> IBM's fabs are still in operation, just under different ownership. So
>>>> the end of Taiwan will not be the end of computing.
>>>
>>> Indeed. We could just go on using our *old* computers until they
>>> fall apart, after all.
>>>
>>> So to send people back to slide rules and mechanical calculators,
>>> you need something more. Say, like the Carrington event.
>>>
>>> Unfortunately, that _could_ happen.
>>>
>>> John Savard
>>
>> IMHO, any computer since about 2000 should do almost any ordinary job.
>
> For certain values. If by "ordinary" you mean balance your checkbook,
> yes. If by "ordinary" you mean handle Amazon's order entry, not so
> much.
From memory, google got to critical mass by using massivel networked
refurbished computers
|
|
|
|
| Re: Forced back to using the abacus and odhner-based calculators? [message #408711 is a reply to message #408609] |
Sat, 05 June 2021 09:23 |
Peter Flass
Messages: 8375
Registered: December 2011
Karma: 0
|
Senior Member |
|
|
Andreas Kohlbach <ank@spamfence.net> wrote:
> On 3 Jun 2021 19:28:39 GMT, greymaus wrote:
>>
>> On 2021-06-02, J Clarke <jclarke.873638@gmail.com> wrote:
>>>
>>> Sorry, but TSMC is not the only game in town. Samsung has the largest
>>> single fab currently in operation. Nearly all of Intel's fabs are in
>>> the US--they have one for a relatively low-performance process in
>>> China. Micron has numerous US fabs. The Japanese have a large
>>> quantity as well, and there are others scattered all over the world.
>>> IBM's fabs are still in operation, just under different ownership. So
>>> the end of Taiwan will not be the end of computing.
>>>
>>
>> I thought that Intel had fabs in Vietnam (Remember Vietnam?), Ireland
>> (Leixlip) Israel, and one in the former East Germany?
>
> AFAIK AMD has three fabs in Dresden (former East Germany). They are on one
> complex though.
One in NY. The fabs are now GlobalFoundries. AMD seems to have gone
design-only, like ARM.
--
Pete
|
|
|
|
| Re: Geomagnetic storms [message #408712 is a reply to message #408667] |
Sat, 05 June 2021 09:23 |
Peter Flass
Messages: 8375
Registered: December 2011
Karma: 0
|
Senior Member |
|
|
Scott Lurndal <scott@slp53.sl.home> wrote:
> Dan Espen <dan1espen@gmail.com> writes:
>> usenet@only.tnx (Questor) writes:
>>
>>> On Thu, 03 Jun 2021 11:02:44 -0400, Andreas Kohlbach <ank@spamfence.net> wrote:
>>>> On Thu, 3 Jun 2021 12:05:15 +0100, gareth evans wrote:
>>>> > On 02/06/2021 23:48, Andreas Kohlbach wrote:
>>>> >> On Wed, 2 Jun 2021 11:49:34 -0700 (PDT), Quadibloc wrote:
>>>> >>> So to send people back to slide rules and mechanical calculators,
>>>> >>> you need something more. Say, like the Carrington event.
>>>> >>>
>>>> >>> Unfortunately, that _could_ happen.
>>>> >>
>>>> >> Almost happened 2012. The CME had about the same strength as the
>>>> >> Carrington Event, bus missed earth by nine days.
>>>> >
>>>> > I had to rush to google for that.
>>>>
>>>> I checked Wikipedia for Carrington Event which also mentioned the 2012 event.
>>>>
>>>> > I'm surprised that telegraph circuits were compromised in those
>>>> > days before the coming of electronics of any kind.
>>>>
>>>> Metal wires of any kind don't like that. 1989 did an CME earth and shut
>>>> down much of Eastern Canada
>>>> <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/March_1989_geomagnetic_storm>.
>>>
>>> As I understand it, we're "overdue" for a major shift in the Earth's magnetic
>>> poles, which historically have occurred every couple of hundred thousand years.
>>> When that happens, it will make a CME look like a walk in the park in
>>> comparison.
>>
>> Any good sources on what would actually happen?
>> The wikipedia page lacks any end of world predictions.
>
> IIRC, it will take several millenia to completely shift to the
> current south pole.
>
> During that period, the surface of the planet may be exposed
> to additional cosmic and solar radiation.
>
I’m not sure. I read where it could flip rather quickly, once it decides to
do so.
--
Pete
|
|
|
|
| Re: Geomagnetic storms [message #408721 is a reply to message #408712] |
Sat, 05 June 2021 14:00 |
Dan Espen
Messages: 3867
Registered: January 2012
Karma: 0
|
Senior Member |
|
|
Peter Flass <peter_flass@yahoo.com> writes:
> Scott Lurndal <scott@slp53.sl.home> wrote:
>> Dan Espen <dan1espen@gmail.com> writes:
>>> usenet@only.tnx (Questor) writes:
>>>
>>>> On Thu, 03 Jun 2021 11:02:44 -0400, Andreas Kohlbach <ank@spamfence.net> wrote:
>>>> > On Thu, 3 Jun 2021 12:05:15 +0100, gareth evans wrote:
>>>> >> On 02/06/2021 23:48, Andreas Kohlbach wrote:
>>>> >>> On Wed, 2 Jun 2021 11:49:34 -0700 (PDT), Quadibloc wrote:
>>>> >>>> So to send people back to slide rules and mechanical calculators,
>>>> >>>> you need something more. Say, like the Carrington event.
>>>> >>>>
>>>> >>>> Unfortunately, that _could_ happen.
>>>> >>>
>>>> >>> Almost happened 2012. The CME had about the same strength as the
>>>> >>> Carrington Event, bus missed earth by nine days.
>>>> >>
>>>> >> I had to rush to google for that.
>>>> >
>>>> > I checked Wikipedia for Carrington Event which also mentioned the 2012 event.
>>>> >
>>>> >> I'm surprised that telegraph circuits were compromised in those
>>>> >> days before the coming of electronics of any kind.
>>>> >
>>>> > Metal wires of any kind don't like that. 1989 did an CME earth and shut
>>>> > down much of Eastern Canada
>>>> > <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/March_1989_geomagnetic_storm>.
>>>>
>>>> As I understand it, we're "overdue" for a major shift in the Earth's magnetic
>>>> poles, which historically have occurred every couple of hundred thousand years.
>>>> When that happens, it will make a CME look like a walk in the park in
>>>> comparison.
>>>
>>> Any good sources on what would actually happen?
>>> The wikipedia page lacks any end of world predictions.
>>
>> IIRC, it will take several millenia to completely shift to the
>> current south pole.
>>
>> During that period, the surface of the planet may be exposed
>> to additional cosmic and solar radiation.
>
> I’m not sure. I read where it could flip rather quickly, once it decides to
> do so.
So, I don't think we have any known outcomes.
We may have to start building things like cell phones and computers with
shielding. We may have to keep our electronics in Faraday cages.
We may have to stay in the shade or only go out at night.
Planes might be restricted from flying at high altitude.
The sky may light up all day long.
I've lived through the great pandemic, I think I'd rather skip the pole collapse.
--
Dan Espen
|
|
|
|
| Re: Geomagnetic storms [message #408723 is a reply to message #408721] |
Sat, 05 June 2021 14:15 |
|
|
Originally posted by: J. Clarke
On Sat, 05 Jun 2021 14:00:05 -0400, Dan Espen <dan1espen@gmail.com>
wrote:
> Peter Flass <peter_flass@yahoo.com> writes:
>
>> Scott Lurndal <scott@slp53.sl.home> wrote:
>>> Dan Espen <dan1espen@gmail.com> writes:
>>>> usenet@only.tnx (Questor) writes:
>>>>
>>>> > On Thu, 03 Jun 2021 11:02:44 -0400, Andreas Kohlbach <ank@spamfence.net> wrote:
>>>> >> On Thu, 3 Jun 2021 12:05:15 +0100, gareth evans wrote:
>>>> >>> On 02/06/2021 23:48, Andreas Kohlbach wrote:
>>>> >>>> On Wed, 2 Jun 2021 11:49:34 -0700 (PDT), Quadibloc wrote:
>>>> >>>>> So to send people back to slide rules and mechanical calculators,
>>>> >>>>> you need something more. Say, like the Carrington event.
>>>> >>>>>
>>>> >>>>> Unfortunately, that _could_ happen.
>>>> >>>>
>>>> >>>> Almost happened 2012. The CME had about the same strength as the
>>>> >>>> Carrington Event, bus missed earth by nine days.
>>>> >>>
>>>> >>> I had to rush to google for that.
>>>> >>
>>>> >> I checked Wikipedia for Carrington Event which also mentioned the 2012 event.
>>>> >>
>>>> >>> I'm surprised that telegraph circuits were compromised in those
>>>> >>> days before the coming of electronics of any kind.
>>>> >>
>>>> >> Metal wires of any kind don't like that. 1989 did an CME earth and shut
>>>> >> down much of Eastern Canada
>>>> >> <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/March_1989_geomagnetic_storm>.
>>>> >
>>>> > As I understand it, we're "overdue" for a major shift in the Earth's magnetic
>>>> > poles, which historically have occurred every couple of hundred thousand years.
>>>> > When that happens, it will make a CME look like a walk in the park in
>>>> > comparison.
>>>>
>>>> Any good sources on what would actually happen?
>>>> The wikipedia page lacks any end of world predictions.
>>>
>>> IIRC, it will take several millenia to completely shift to the
>>> current south pole.
>>>
>>> During that period, the surface of the planet may be exposed
>>> to additional cosmic and solar radiation.
>>
>> I’m not sure. I read where it could flip rather quickly, once it decides to
>> do so.
>
> So, I don't think we have any known outcomes.
> We may have to start building things like cell phones and computers with
> shielding. We may have to keep our electronics in Faraday cages.
> We may have to stay in the shade or only go out at night.
> Planes might be restricted from flying at high altitude.
> The sky may light up all day long.
>
> I've lived through the great pandemic, I think I'd rather skip the pole collapse.
The magnetic field changes orientation, it doesn't vanish.
|
|
|
|
| Re: Geomagnetic storms [message #408724 is a reply to message #408656] |
Sat, 05 June 2021 15:10 |
usenet
Messages: 556
Registered: May 2013
Karma: 0
|
Senior Member |
|
|
On Thu, 03 Jun 2021 14:13:11 -0400, Dan Espen <dan1espen@gmail.com> wrote:
> usenet@only.tnx (Questor) writes:
>> On Thu, 03 Jun 2021 11:02:44 -0400, Andreas Kohlbach <ank@spamfence.net> wrote:
>>> On Thu, 3 Jun 2021 12:05:15 +0100, gareth evans wrote:
>>>> On 02/06/2021 23:48, Andreas Kohlbach wrote:
>>>> >On Wed, 2 Jun 2021 11:49:34 -0700 (PDT), Quadibloc wrote:
>>>> >>So to send people back to slide rules and mechanical calculators,
>>>> >>you need something more. Say, like the Carrington event.
>>>> >>
>>>> >>Unfortunately, that _could_ happen.
>>>> >
>>>> >Almost happened 2012. The CME had about the same strength as the
>>>> >Carrington Event, bus missed earth by nine days.
>>>>
>>>> I had to rush to google for that.
>>>
>>> I checked Wikipedia for Carrington Event which also mentioned the 2012 event.
>>>
>>>> I'm surprised that telegraph circuits were compromised in those
>>>> days before the coming of electronics of any kind.
>>>
>>> Metal wires of any kind don't like that. 1989 did an CME earth and shut
>>> down much of Eastern Canada
>>> <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/March_1989_geomagnetic_storm>.
>>
>> As I understand it, we're "overdue" for a major shift in the Earth's magnetic
>> poles, which historically have occurred every couple of hundred thousand years.
>> When that happens, it will make a CME look like a walk in the park in
>> comparison.
>
> Any good sources on what would actually happen?
> The wikipedia page lacks any end of world predictions.
Naturally, nobody really knows what happens during a magnetic pole reversal, but
it is known to happen at irregular intervals. It has to be studied indirectly,
for example studying the orientation of magnetic minerals in lava flows that
occurred at the same time. When the lava hardened, those minerals were aligned
with the existing magnetic field of the Earth as it was in that moment.
As I understand the current theory, the reversal process takes only decades, not
millenia -- a blink of an eye in geological time scales. It is speculated that
first the Earth's magnetic field weakens, while the poles begin to wander more
rapidly. As the magnetic field continues to weaken, multiple north and south
magnetic poles appear. After some time of magnetic chaos with multiple weak
poles, the steps reverse. One set of poles -- now with the opposite polarity
with regard to the Earth's axis -- strengthens while the others fade away.
The impact of such an event on our current way of life would be huge. With a
weaker magnetic field, more cosmic radiation and various emanations from the sun
will reach the Earth's surface. Just being outside will be more hazardous.
Perhaps wearing a tinfoil hat would actually be necessary. The increased
radiation will also play havoc with any unshielded electronic equipment or wire
transmissions, and of course any wireless communication. Magnetic wayfinding
would be practically impossile.
It seems like there should be some good science fiction stories written about
life during/after a magnetic pole reversal. Anybody know of any?
|
|
|
|
| Re: Geomagnetic storms [message #408727 is a reply to message #408723] |
Sat, 05 June 2021 15:49 |
Dan Espen
Messages: 3867
Registered: January 2012
Karma: 0
|
Senior Member |
|
|
J. Clarke <jclarke.873638@gmail.com> writes:
> On Sat, 05 Jun 2021 14:00:05 -0400, Dan Espen <dan1espen@gmail.com>
> wrote:
>
>> Peter Flass <peter_flass@yahoo.com> writes:
>>
>>> Scott Lurndal <scott@slp53.sl.home> wrote:
>>>> Dan Espen <dan1espen@gmail.com> writes:
>>>> > usenet@only.tnx (Questor) writes:
>>>> >
>>>> >> On Thu, 03 Jun 2021 11:02:44 -0400, Andreas Kohlbach <ank@spamfence.net> wrote:
>>>> >>> On Thu, 3 Jun 2021 12:05:15 +0100, gareth evans wrote:
>>>> >>>> On 02/06/2021 23:48, Andreas Kohlbach wrote:
>>>> >>>>> On Wed, 2 Jun 2021 11:49:34 -0700 (PDT), Quadibloc wrote:
>>>> >>>>>> So to send people back to slide rules and mechanical calculators,
>>>> >>>>>> you need something more. Say, like the Carrington event.
>>>> >>>>>>
>>>> >>>>>> Unfortunately, that _could_ happen.
>>>> >>>>>
>>>> >>>>> Almost happened 2012. The CME had about the same strength as the
>>>> >>>>> Carrington Event, bus missed earth by nine days.
>>>> >>>>
>>>> >>>> I had to rush to google for that.
>>>> >>>
>>>> >>> I checked Wikipedia for Carrington Event which also mentioned the 2012 event.
>>>> >>>
>>>> >>>> I'm surprised that telegraph circuits were compromised in those
>>>> >>>> days before the coming of electronics of any kind.
>>>> >>>
>>>> >>> Metal wires of any kind don't like that. 1989 did an CME earth and shut
>>>> >>> down much of Eastern Canada
>>>> >>> <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/March_1989_geomagnetic_storm>.
>>>> >>
>>>> >> As I understand it, we're "overdue" for a major shift in the Earth's magnetic
>>>> >> poles, which historically have occurred every couple of hundred thousand years.
>>>> >> When that happens, it will make a CME look like a walk in the park in
>>>> >> comparison.
>>>> >
>>>> > Any good sources on what would actually happen?
>>>> > The wikipedia page lacks any end of world predictions.
>>>>
>>>> IIRC, it will take several millenia to completely shift to the
>>>> current south pole.
>>>>
>>>> During that period, the surface of the planet may be exposed
>>>> to additional cosmic and solar radiation.
>>>
>>> I’m not sure. I read where it could flip rather quickly, once it decides to
>>> do so.
>>
>> So, I don't think we have any known outcomes.
>> We may have to start building things like cell phones and computers with
>> shielding. We may have to keep our electronics in Faraday cages.
>> We may have to stay in the shade or only go out at night.
>> Planes might be restricted from flying at high altitude.
>> The sky may light up all day long.
>>
>> I've lived through the great pandemic, I think I'd rather skip the pole collapse.
>
> The magnetic field changes orientation, it doesn't vanish.
I read that they expect a weak, less organized field to remain.
How weak and how much radiation reaches the ground doesn't seem
to be precisely known.
--
Dan Espen
|
|
|
|
| Re: Geomagnetic storms [message #408752 is a reply to message #408723] |
Sun, 06 June 2021 16:03 |
Peter Flass
Messages: 8375
Registered: December 2011
Karma: 0
|
Senior Member |
|
|
J. Clarke <jclarke.873638@gmail.com> wrote:
> On Sat, 05 Jun 2021 14:00:05 -0400, Dan Espen <dan1espen@gmail.com>
> wrote:
>
>> Peter Flass <peter_flass@yahoo.com> writes:
>>
>>> Scott Lurndal <scott@slp53.sl.home> wrote:
>>>> Dan Espen <dan1espen@gmail.com> writes:
>>>> > usenet@only.tnx (Questor) writes:
>>>> >
>>>> >> On Thu, 03 Jun 2021 11:02:44 -0400, Andreas Kohlbach <ank@spamfence.net> wrote:
>>>> >>> On Thu, 3 Jun 2021 12:05:15 +0100, gareth evans wrote:
>>>> >>>> On 02/06/2021 23:48, Andreas Kohlbach wrote:
>>>> >>>>> On Wed, 2 Jun 2021 11:49:34 -0700 (PDT), Quadibloc wrote:
>>>> >>>>>> So to send people back to slide rules and mechanical calculators,
>>>> >>>>>> you need something more. Say, like the Carrington event.
>>>> >>>>>>
>>>> >>>>>> Unfortunately, that _could_ happen.
>>>> >>>>>
>>>> >>>>> Almost happened 2012. The CME had about the same strength as the
>>>> >>>>> Carrington Event, bus missed earth by nine days.
>>>> >>>>
>>>> >>>> I had to rush to google for that.
>>>> >>>
>>>> >>> I checked Wikipedia for Carrington Event which also mentioned the 2012 event.
>>>> >>>
>>>> >>>> I'm surprised that telegraph circuits were compromised in those
>>>> >>>> days before the coming of electronics of any kind.
>>>> >>>
>>>> >>> Metal wires of any kind don't like that. 1989 did an CME earth and shut
>>>> >>> down much of Eastern Canada
>>>> >>> <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/March_1989_geomagnetic_storm>.
>>>> >>
>>>> >> As I understand it, we're "overdue" for a major shift in the Earth's magnetic
>>>> >> poles, which historically have occurred every couple of hundred thousand years.
>>>> >> When that happens, it will make a CME look like a walk in the park in
>>>> >> comparison.
>>>> >
>>>> > Any good sources on what would actually happen?
>>>> > The wikipedia page lacks any end of world predictions.
>>>>
>>>> IIRC, it will take several millenia to completely shift to the
>>>> current south pole.
>>>>
>>>> During that period, the surface of the planet may be exposed
>>>> to additional cosmic and solar radiation.
>>>
>>> I’m not sure. I read where it could flip rather quickly, once it decides to
>>> do so.
>>
>> So, I don't think we have any known outcomes.
>> We may have to start building things like cell phones and computers with
>> shielding. We may have to keep our electronics in Faraday cages.
>> We may have to stay in the shade or only go out at night.
>> Planes might be restricted from flying at high altitude.
>> The sky may light up all day long.
>>
>> I've lived through the great pandemic, I think I'd rather skip the pole collapse.
>
> The magnetic field changes orientation, it doesn't vanish.
>
I’m told it doesn’t flip immediately, so for a period of time we’re
vulnerable to UV and other things.
--
Pete
|
|
|
|
| Re: Geomagnetic storms [message #408753 is a reply to message #408752] |
Sun, 06 June 2021 16:15 |
|
|
Originally posted by: J. Clarke
On Sun, 6 Jun 2021 13:03:52 -0700, Peter Flass <peter_flass@yahoo.com>
wrote:
> J. Clarke <jclarke.873638@gmail.com> wrote:
>> On Sat, 05 Jun 2021 14:00:05 -0400, Dan Espen <dan1espen@gmail.com>
>> wrote:
>>
>>> Peter Flass <peter_flass@yahoo.com> writes:
>>>
>>>> Scott Lurndal <scott@slp53.sl.home> wrote:
>>>> > Dan Espen <dan1espen@gmail.com> writes:
>>>> >> usenet@only.tnx (Questor) writes:
>>>> >>
>>>> >>> On Thu, 03 Jun 2021 11:02:44 -0400, Andreas Kohlbach <ank@spamfence.net> wrote:
>>>> >>>> On Thu, 3 Jun 2021 12:05:15 +0100, gareth evans wrote:
>>>> >>>>> On 02/06/2021 23:48, Andreas Kohlbach wrote:
>>>> >>>>>> On Wed, 2 Jun 2021 11:49:34 -0700 (PDT), Quadibloc wrote:
>>>> >>>>>>> So to send people back to slide rules and mechanical calculators,
>>>> >>>>>>> you need something more. Say, like the Carrington event.
>>>> >>>>>>>
>>>> >>>>>>> Unfortunately, that _could_ happen.
>>>> >>>>>>
>>>> >>>>>> Almost happened 2012. The CME had about the same strength as the
>>>> >>>>>> Carrington Event, bus missed earth by nine days.
>>>> >>>>>
>>>> >>>>> I had to rush to google for that.
>>>> >>>>
>>>> >>>> I checked Wikipedia for Carrington Event which also mentioned the 2012 event.
>>>> >>>>
>>>> >>>>> I'm surprised that telegraph circuits were compromised in those
>>>> >>>>> days before the coming of electronics of any kind.
>>>> >>>>
>>>> >>>> Metal wires of any kind don't like that. 1989 did an CME earth and shut
>>>> >>>> down much of Eastern Canada
>>>> >>>> <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/March_1989_geomagnetic_storm>.
>>>> >>>
>>>> >>> As I understand it, we're "overdue" for a major shift in the Earth's magnetic
>>>> >>> poles, which historically have occurred every couple of hundred thousand years.
>>>> >>> When that happens, it will make a CME look like a walk in the park in
>>>> >>> comparison.
>>>> >>
>>>> >> Any good sources on what would actually happen?
>>>> >> The wikipedia page lacks any end of world predictions.
>>>> >
>>>> > IIRC, it will take several millenia to completely shift to the
>>>> > current south pole.
>>>> >
>>>> > During that period, the surface of the planet may be exposed
>>>> > to additional cosmic and solar radiation.
>>>>
>>>> I’m not sure. I read where it could flip rather quickly, once it decides to
>>>> do so.
>>>
>>> So, I don't think we have any known outcomes.
>>> We may have to start building things like cell phones and computers with
>>> shielding. We may have to keep our electronics in Faraday cages.
>>> We may have to stay in the shade or only go out at night.
>>> Planes might be restricted from flying at high altitude.
>>> The sky may light up all day long.
>>>
>>> I've lived through the great pandemic, I think I'd rather skip the pole collapse.
>>
>> The magnetic field changes orientation, it doesn't vanish.
>>
>
> I’m told it doesn’t flip immediately, so for a period of time we’re
> vulnerable to UV and other things.
Pick up a magnet, turn it end for end. You've reversed the magnetic
field but you have never changed its intensity.
And the magnetic field has nothing whatsoever to do with UV.
|
|
|
|
| Re: Geomagnetic storms [message #408756 is a reply to message #408753] |
Sun, 06 June 2021 21:43 |
Quadibloc
Messages: 4399
Registered: June 2012
Karma: 0
|
Senior Member |
|
|
On Sunday, June 6, 2021 at 2:15:57 PM UTC-6, J. Clarke wrote:
> Pick up a magnet, turn it end for end. You've reversed the magnetic
> field but you have never changed its intensity.
True, but a geomagnetic field reversal doesn't quite work like that.
During the process, the Earth's magnetic field will indeed be reduced
in strength for quite some time.
> And the magnetic field has nothing whatsoever to do with UV.
Also true. However, when the Van Allen belts disappear, the Earth will
be struck by more charged particles. This will also bring a radiation
hazard... *as well as* causing serious, if temporary, damage to the
ozone layer, which _does_ have something to do with UV.
John Savard
|
|
|
|
| Re: Geomagnetic storms [message #408782 is a reply to message #408756] |
Mon, 07 June 2021 19:19 |
Peter Flass
Messages: 8375
Registered: December 2011
Karma: 0
|
Senior Member |
|
|
Quadibloc <jsavard@ecn.ab.ca> wrote:
> On Sunday, June 6, 2021 at 2:15:57 PM UTC-6, J. Clarke wrote:
>
>> Pick up a magnet, turn it end for end. You've reversed the magnetic
>> field but you have never changed its intensity.
>
> True, but a geomagnetic field reversal doesn't quite work like that.
> During the process, the Earth's magnetic field will indeed be reduced
> in strength for quite some time.
>
>> And the magnetic field has nothing whatsoever to do with UV.
>
> Also true. However, when the Van Allen belts disappear, the Earth will
> be struck by more charged particles. This will also bring a radiation
> hazard... *as well as* causing serious, if temporary, damage to the
> ozone layer, which _does_ have something to do with UV.
>
> John Savard
>
We don’t really know how long “temporary” is. It might be a blink of an eye
on a geological timescale and still be a very long time in human terms.
--
Pete
|
|
|
|
| Re: Forced back to using the abacus and odhner-based calculators? [message #408913 is a reply to message #408665] |
Sun, 13 June 2021 17:00 |
|
|
Originally posted by: Vir Campestris
On 03/06/2021 22:16, J. Clarke wrote:
> I said "nearly all". The concern is over China, not Vietnam, Ireland,
> Israel, or East Germany, so the only one worth mentioning was China.
>
> There are three in Ireland, two in Israel, and one in Costa Rica. I
> can find no evidence of any Intel fab, past or present, in Germany,
> and no evidence of a semiconductor fab of_any_ kind having ever
> existed in Vietnam.
>
> There is an Intel assembly facility in Vietnam--an assembly facility
> is not a fab--the fab makes the silicon, the assembly facility puts it
> in its plastic or ceramic carrier with pins or BGA or whatever.
Vietnam shares a border with China.
I'm also concerned over Taiwan.
Andy
|
|
|
|
Members
Search
Help
Register
Login
Home
