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| Re: I Feel Old [message #308049 is a reply to message #307765] |
Sun, 10 January 2016 07:18   |
Ahem A Rivet's Shot
Messages: 4843
Registered: January 2012
Karma: 0
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Senior Member |
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On Thu, 7 Jan 2016 06:44:05 -0500
"J. Clarke" <j.clarke.873638@gmail.com> wrote:
> In article <OoOdndTKMpFaihPLnZ2dnUU78Y2dnZ2d@giganews.com>,
> am.swallow@btinternet.com says...
>>
>> On 07/01/2016 00:38, J. Clarke wrote:
>>> In article <KrGdnVzIO-BSOhDLnZ2dnUU78TmdnZ2d@giganews.com>,
>>> am.swallow@btinternet.com says...
>>>>
>>>> On 06/01/2016 23:44, J. Clarke wrote:
>>>> > In article <lI2dnSPPxLkGvxDLnZ2dnUU78QmdnZ2d@giganews.com>,
>>>> > am.swallow@btinternet.com says...
>>>> >>
>>>> >> On 06/01/2016 13:26, Ahem A Rivet's Shot wrote:
>>>> >>> On Wed, 6 Jan 2016 06:50:57 -0500
>>>> >>> "J. Clarke" <j.clarke.873638@gmail.com> wrote:
>>>> >>>
>>>> >>>> That's been the big problem right along. Even the ISS is
>>>> >>>> treated as a stunt--the most expensive artifact ever created,
>>>> >>>> and the plan is to destroy it at some point in the next decade
>>>> >>>> or so, instead of using it to build something better.
>>>> >>>
>>>> >>> Oh ye gods, I thought letting Skylab drop was criminally
>>>> >>> insane. Now they plan to repeat themselves. I do hope they at
>>>> >>> least take a little more care about arranging where it lands this
>>>> >>> time.
>>>> >>>
>>>> >>> That old line about the conquest of space being too
>>>> >>> important to leave to governments is ringing true.
>>>> >>>
>>>> >>
>>>> >> When a ship gets old it costs more to repair it every year than to
>>>> >> buy a new one. The ISS will need rewiring, replumbing and the
>>>> >> airtight seals between modules replacing.
>>>> >
>>>> > A ship doesn't have to be hauled into orbit piece by piece at a
>>>> > cost of $2000 or so a pound.
>>>> >
>>>> Unfortunately the replacement parts for the ISS do. We can only
>>>> replace entire modules or small parts.
>>>
>>> Then it's time we learned how to take them apart and reassemble them
>>> in orbit.
>>>
>>>> The habitat area of the replacement space station for the ISS is
>>>> likely to be a Bigelow BA-330
>>>> <http://bigelowaerospace.com/b330>
>>>
>>> And a large enough Bigelow hab can be used as a workshop to repair one
>>> of those modules that you seem to believe cannot be repaired for less
>>> cost than orbiting another module.
>>>
>>>> http://bigelowaerospace.com/b330
>>>
>>>
>> Before you can repair your module you would have the cost of launching
>> an entire Bigelow space station.
>
> Which is one more module for the ISS, adding on to it when not being
> used for repairs. Why do you see that to be a problem?
Sounds like a plan to me, with the option of junking modules that
become too old to maintain - I'd be inclined to park any such nearby with
the airlocks open (to kill anything in them) and consider them as a source
of spare parts rather than dropping them - after all every kilo up there
cost around $10000 plus whatever it cost to make.
Those Bigelow habitats look very good, add fuel tanks and motors
(hypergols not H2/LOX) and you have a really neat OTV with great crew and
cargo capabilities - it'd cost maybe a quarter of a billion to lift - just
the sort of thing the Mars One folks need, heck a few billion would lift a
small fleet of Mars shuttles, just add fuel and payload - maybe a billion
per trip. I'd be a lot happier with the Mars One plan if it included
shuttles instead of a one way, one shot drop and die.
--
Steve O'Hara-Smith | Directable Mirror Arrays
C:>WIN | A better way to focus the sun
The computer obeys and wins. | licences available see
You lose and Bill collects. | http://www.sohara.org/
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| Re: I Feel Old [message #308050 is a reply to message #308049] |
Sun, 10 January 2016 08:12 |
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Originally posted by: J. Clarke
In article <20160110121813.54b85b32ed221f578453e3d7@eircom.net>,
steveo@eircom.net says...
>
> On Thu, 7 Jan 2016 06:44:05 -0500
> "J. Clarke" <j.clarke.873638@gmail.com> wrote:
>
>> In article <OoOdndTKMpFaihPLnZ2dnUU78Y2dnZ2d@giganews.com>,
>> am.swallow@btinternet.com says...
>>>
>>> On 07/01/2016 00:38, J. Clarke wrote:
>>>> In article <KrGdnVzIO-BSOhDLnZ2dnUU78TmdnZ2d@giganews.com>,
>>>> am.swallow@btinternet.com says...
>>>> >
>>>> > On 06/01/2016 23:44, J. Clarke wrote:
>>>> >> In article <lI2dnSPPxLkGvxDLnZ2dnUU78QmdnZ2d@giganews.com>,
>>>> >> am.swallow@btinternet.com says...
>>>> >>>
>>>> >>> On 06/01/2016 13:26, Ahem A Rivet's Shot wrote:
>>>> >>>> On Wed, 6 Jan 2016 06:50:57 -0500
>>>> >>>> "J. Clarke" <j.clarke.873638@gmail.com> wrote:
>>>> >>>>
>>>> >>>>> That's been the big problem right along. Even the ISS is
>>>> >>>>> treated as a stunt--the most expensive artifact ever created,
>>>> >>>>> and the plan is to destroy it at some point in the next decade
>>>> >>>>> or so, instead of using it to build something better.
>>>> >>>>
>>>> >>>> Oh ye gods, I thought letting Skylab drop was criminally
>>>> >>>> insane. Now they plan to repeat themselves. I do hope they at
>>>> >>>> least take a little more care about arranging where it lands this
>>>> >>>> time.
>>>> >>>>
>>>> >>>> That old line about the conquest of space being too
>>>> >>>> important to leave to governments is ringing true.
>>>> >>>>
>>>> >>>
>>>> >>> When a ship gets old it costs more to repair it every year than to
>>>> >>> buy a new one. The ISS will need rewiring, replumbing and the
>>>> >>> airtight seals between modules replacing.
>>>> >>
>>>> >> A ship doesn't have to be hauled into orbit piece by piece at a
>>>> >> cost of $2000 or so a pound.
>>>> >>
>>>> > Unfortunately the replacement parts for the ISS do. We can only
>>>> > replace entire modules or small parts.
>>>>
>>>> Then it's time we learned how to take them apart and reassemble them
>>>> in orbit.
>>>>
>>>> > The habitat area of the replacement space station for the ISS is
>>>> > likely to be a Bigelow BA-330
>>>> > <http://bigelowaerospace.com/b330>
>>>>
>>>> And a large enough Bigelow hab can be used as a workshop to repair one
>>>> of those modules that you seem to believe cannot be repaired for less
>>>> cost than orbiting another module.
>>>>
>>>> > http://bigelowaerospace.com/b330
>>>>
>>>>
>>> Before you can repair your module you would have the cost of launching
>>> an entire Bigelow space station.
>>
>> Which is one more module for the ISS, adding on to it when not being
>> used for repairs. Why do you see that to be a problem?
>
> Sounds like a plan to me, with the option of junking modules that
> become too old to maintain - I'd be inclined to park any such nearby with
> the airlocks open (to kill anything in them) and consider them as a source
> of spare parts rather than dropping them - after all every kilo up there
> cost around $10000 plus whatever it cost to make.
>
> Those Bigelow habitats look very good, add fuel tanks and motors
> (hypergols not H2/LOX) and you have a really neat OTV with great crew and
> cargo capabilities - it'd cost maybe a quarter of a billion to lift - just
> the sort of thing the Mars One folks need, heck a few billion would lift a
> small fleet of Mars shuttles, just add fuel and payload - maybe a billion
> per trip. I'd be a lot happier with the Mars One plan if it included
> shuttles instead of a one way, one shot drop and die.
I'll feel better about them once they have one attached to ISS and it's
actually doing what they say it will, but I won't feel real good until
they've got one of the larger ones up. What's worrisome is that they
seem to be planning their third generation to need a NASA booster
instead of finding a way to break it down into pieces that can ride
Falcon.
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| Re: I Feel Old [message #308051 is a reply to message #308050] |
Sun, 10 January 2016 08:40 |
Ahem A Rivet's Shot
Messages: 4843
Registered: January 2012
Karma: 0
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Senior Member |
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On Sun, 10 Jan 2016 08:12:08 -0500
"J. Clarke" <j.clarke.873638@gmail.com> wrote:
> In article <20160110121813.54b85b32ed221f578453e3d7@eircom.net>,
> steveo@eircom.net says...
>> Those Bigelow habitats look very good, add fuel tanks and motors
>> (hypergols not H2/LOX) and you have a really neat OTV with great crew
>> and cargo capabilities - it'd cost maybe a quarter of a billion to lift
>> - just the sort of thing the Mars One folks need, heck a few billion
>> would lift a small fleet of Mars shuttles, just add fuel and payload -
>> maybe a billion per trip. I'd be a lot happier with the Mars One plan
>> if it included shuttles instead of a one way, one shot drop and die.
>
> I'll feel better about them once they have one attached to ISS and it's
> actually doing what they say it will,
Sure, proof of the pudding and all that. I certainly wouldn't want
to use one as an OTV until (at least) one had been in use as a habitat for
a good while (say a year).
> What's worrisome is that they
> seem to be planning their third generation to need a NASA booster
> instead of finding a way to break it down into pieces that can ride
> Falcon.
That sounds like a bad idea.
--
Steve O'Hara-Smith | Directable Mirror Arrays
C:>WIN | A better way to focus the sun
The computer obeys and wins. | licences available see
You lose and Bill collects. | http://www.sohara.org/
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| Re: I Feel Old [message #308058 is a reply to message #308017] |
Sun, 10 January 2016 14:25 |
hancock4
Messages: 6746
Registered: December 2011
Karma: 0
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Senior Member |
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On Saturday, January 9, 2016 at 4:31:55 PM UTC-5, Stephen Sprunk wrote:
> If the limit is below the rate of inflation (including zero), that's
> good for people on fixed incomes, but it means the tax burden falls
> mostly on new owners, which creates a disincentive to buying, and that
> is probably bad for society as a whole. There's no good answer.
Unfortunately, politicians of _both_ parties love promising all sorts
of new government services and subsidies, but they won't talk about
how much they'll cost. Even the supposedly anti-tax "small government"
Republicans do it.
Also, rarely are the _amount_ of government expenditures questioned.
If they say it will cost $25 million to build a new school, people
might argue whether a new school is needed, but won't question the
$25 million figure. Unfortunately, some of the amounts are very
outrageous. SEPTA (Phila transit agency) has a very detailed capital
budget plan on-line, and some of the items seem expensive, like $1
million for a new roof or new driveway for a car barn (maybe it's
justified, I don't know.)
The newspapers report a ton of budget related stuff about government
spending, but the general public could care less, unless of course
there's some sex involved. If a senator is caught taking his
mistress out to lunch, charged to the government, all hell will
break loose, but if the same senator gets a sweetheart billion
dollar defense contract for his district, it's business as usual.
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| Re: I Feel Old [message #308101 is a reply to message #307978] |
Mon, 11 January 2016 09:48 |
scott
Messages: 4237
Registered: February 2012
Karma: 0
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Senior Member |
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"J. Clarke" <j.clarke.873638@gmail.com> writes:
> In article <88a858d8-979b-46cb-bf5b-1223389d682f@googlegroups.com>,
> hancock4@bbs.cpcn.com says...
>>
>> Some politicians have said rising health care costs are the patient's
>> fault--they should be shopping around getting the best price.
>> That is total bullsh**. When someone is sick, they aren't in a position
>> to "shop around". Further, patients aren't told what many complex
>> procedures and services will cost until the bill comes. (They tried
>> to pass a law requiring that patients be told up front, but the bill
>> died.)
>
> Complex, Hell. I went to the ER a while back with a cut. Took three
> stitches and they charged me a thousand bucks a stitch.
I don't suppose there was an urgent care facility around; there are
many of those here and they're much less expensive than the ER for
three-stitch wound care.
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| Re: I Feel Old [message #308126 is a reply to message #308101] |
Mon, 11 January 2016 12:28 |
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Originally posted by: Bob Eager
On Mon, 11 Jan 2016 14:48:29 +0000, Scott Lurndal wrote:
>> Complex, Hell. I went to the ER a while back with a cut. Took three
>> stitches and they charged me a thousand bucks a stitch.
>
> I don't suppose there was an urgent care facility around; there are
> many of those here and they're much less expensive than the ER for
> three-stitch wound care.
My son got a nasty abcess on his back last week. Went into ER (had to
wait a while, they were busy and it wasn't life threatening). They booked
him in for an operation the next day, excised it, and set up daily visits
for dressing it for the next two weeks, together with antibiotics and
painkillers. All pretty efficient.
But this is the UK, so total cost: zero.
(yes, I know we pay taxes for it [National Insurance] but a good deal
less than medical insurance I think)
--
Using UNIX since v6 (1975)...
Use the BIG mirror service in the UK:
http://www.mirrorservice.org
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| Re: I Feel Old [message #308194 is a reply to message #308058] |
Mon, 11 January 2016 18:08 |
Stephen Sprunk
Messages: 2166
Registered: March 2013
Karma: 0
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Senior Member |
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On 10-Jan-16 13:25, hancock4@bbs.cpcn.com wrote:
> Stephen Sprunk wrote:
>> If the limit is below the rate of inflation (including zero),
>> that's good for people on fixed incomes, but it means the tax
>> burden falls mostly on new owners, which creates a disincentive to
>> buying, and that is probably bad for society as a whole. There's
>> no good answer.
>
> Unfortunately, politicians of _both_ parties love promising all
> sorts of new government services and subsidies, but they won't talk
> about how much they'll cost. Even the supposedly anti-tax "small
> government" Republicans do it.
Every time I've seen a Dem propose new services, they clearly explain
the cost and exactly how they'll pay for it--usually new taxes.
I rarely see Reps talk up new services; they often let Dems increase
services and then block the taxes to pay for them, then blame the Dems
for fiscal irresponsibility. The only spending increase that actually
gets Rep votes is Defense or other corporate welfare--not that they'll
pay for those either.
> Also, rarely are the _amount_ of government expenditures questioned.
> If they say it will cost $25 million to build a new school, people
> might argue whether a new school is needed, but won't question the
> $25 million figure. Unfortunately, some of the amounts are very
> outrageous. SEPTA (Phila transit agency) has a very detailed capital
> budget plan on-line, and some of the items seem expensive, like $1
> million for a new roof or new driveway for a car barn (maybe it's
> justified, I don't know.)
There's definitely a lot of waste there; we typically spend more to
_study_ problems than it costs to actually _solve_ those problems in
other developed countries.
A big part of the problem is purchasing processes intended to prevent
corruption have grown so horrifically complicated that only the corrupt
are able to actually get anything done--not that getting things done is
a priority for anyone involved--and adds far more cost itself than it
would ever theoretically save.
S
--
Stephen Sprunk "God does not play dice." --Albert Einstein
CCIE #3723 "God is an inveterate gambler, and He throws the
K5SSS dice at every possible opportunity." --Stephen Hawking
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| Re: I Feel Old [message #308212 is a reply to message #308101] |
Mon, 11 January 2016 19:01 |
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Originally posted by: J. Clarke
In article <1hPky.86626$Hz3.68940@fx43.iad>, scott@slp53.sl.home says...
>
> "J. Clarke" <j.clarke.873638@gmail.com> writes:
>> In article <88a858d8-979b-46cb-bf5b-1223389d682f@googlegroups.com>,
>> hancock4@bbs.cpcn.com says...
>
>>>
>>> Some politicians have said rising health care costs are the patient's
>>> fault--they should be shopping around getting the best price.
>>> That is total bullsh**. When someone is sick, they aren't in a position
>>> to "shop around". Further, patients aren't told what many complex
>>> procedures and services will cost until the bill comes. (They tried
>>> to pass a law requiring that patients be told up front, but the bill
>>> died.)
>>
>> Complex, Hell. I went to the ER a while back with a cut. Took three
>> stitches and they charged me a thousand bucks a stitch.
>
> I don't suppose there was an urgent care facility around;
Not then. The sign said "emergency/prompt care". The last time I had
gone to an ER about 5 years previously, they worked on me for two hours
and charged me a hundred bucks.
> there are
> many of those here and they're much less expensive than the ER for
> three-stitch wound care.
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| Re: I Feel Old [message #308237 is a reply to message #308037] |
Tue, 12 January 2016 00:49 |
Stephen Sprunk
Messages: 2166
Registered: March 2013
Karma: 0
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Senior Member |
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On 09-Jan-16 22:56, Osmium wrote:
> "Stephen Sprunk" wrote:
>> In rare cases, a property's FMV can go negative if teardown cost
>> (or similar, e.g. toxic waste cleanup) exceeds land value.
>
> I wonder if that was a factor in Detroit's bankruptcy?
Specifically, Detroit couldn't cover its pension obligations.
However, that was not really a surprise; property values in Detroit had
been falling for decades, partly due to White Flight and partly due to
the loss of so many auto manufacturing jobs to RTW states, Mexico and
Canada.
While similarly declining cities tried to gentrify and attract new
industries (and yuppies) to revitalize their tax base, politicians in
Detroit embraced their city's decline.
The result was inevitable; if it hadn't been the real estate bubble
bursting that tipped them over the line into bankruptcy, it would have
been something else a few years later.
> I assusme those miles of houses are owned by the city or county by
> now.
Michigan has one of the most aggressive "land bank" programs in the US,
in large part to artificially reduce housing supply and thus drive up
the price for the remaining ones, but also because vacant and abandoned
houses have _much_ higher crime (especially arson) rates, which drives
up the cost of public services, and spreading out the occupied houses
drives up utility and road costs too.
> And I would expect any honest valuation would show that they have
> a net negative value.
Probably some of them; shortly after the bubble burst, the median house
price in Detroit had dropped to $18k. That made it very easy to start
up land banks, and every dollar spent buying vacant or abandoned houses
paid back more than a dollar in increased property taxes on the rest.
> The optimum use of the land would probably be to grow radishes or
> something like that.
I read various plans at the time for the banked land, but I haven't
heard which (if any) was actually implemented.
S
--
Stephen Sprunk "God does not play dice." --Albert Einstein
CCIE #3723 "God is an inveterate gambler, and He throws the
K5SSS dice at every possible opportunity." --Stephen Hawking
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| Re: I Feel Old [message #308274 is a reply to message #308194] |
Tue, 12 January 2016 10:43 |
hancock4
Messages: 6746
Registered: December 2011
Karma: 0
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Senior Member |
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On Monday, January 11, 2016 at 6:08:20 PM UTC-5, Stephen Sprunk wrote:
> Every time I've seen a Dem propose new services, they clearly explain
> the cost and exactly how they'll pay for it--usually new taxes.
>
> I rarely see Reps talk up new services; they often let Dems increase
> services and then block the taxes to pay for them, then blame the Dems
> for fiscal irresponsibility. The only spending increase that actually
> gets Rep votes is Defense or other corporate welfare--not that they'll
> pay for those either.
Republicans spend a fortunate on "corporate welfare", such as
zillions of dollars of tax credits for business.
In additional to Defense, which they can't spend enough on, Republicans
are also big on public safety, such as more cops, more equipment for
cops, and prisons.
> A big part of the problem is purchasing processes intended to prevent
> corruption have grown so horrifically complicated that only the corrupt
> are able to actually get anything done--not that getting things done is
> a priority for anyone involved--and adds far more cost itself than it
> would ever theoretically save.
This is nothing new. The US military was hamstrung by enormous
purchasing regulations prior to WW II and was unable to build up.
(Download the official Signal Corps history, volume 1 has a whole
chapter on the incredible B/S they had to go through.)
Indeed, government procurement was a problem in the 1930s when FDR
was trying to fight the Depression. FDR had to key assistants,
Hopkins and Ickes. Hopkins wanted to spend money fast and furious
to alleviate suffering and give people food, shelter, and something
to do, and not worry about waste or fraud. Ickes, in contrast,
was very fussy and would not spend a dime until everything was
thoroughly discussed and checked out.
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| Re: I Feel Old [message #308275 is a reply to message #308237] |
Tue, 12 January 2016 10:46 |
hancock4
Messages: 6746
Registered: December 2011
Karma: 0
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Senior Member |
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On Tuesday, January 12, 2016 at 12:49:15 AM UTC-5, Stephen Sprunk wrote:
> On 09-Jan-16 22:56, Osmium wrote:
>> I wonder if that was a factor in Detroit's bankruptcy?
>
> Specifically, Detroit couldn't cover its pension obligations.
I believe pensions were only a small part of Detroit's problem,
it was it bonded debt that was overwhelming.
Despite that everyone knew Detroit was worthless, Wall Street kept
lending it tons of money.
> However, that was not really a surprise; property values in Detroit had
> been falling for decades, partly due to White Flight and partly due to
> the loss of so many auto manufacturing jobs to RTW states, Mexico and
> Canada.
> While similarly declining cities tried to gentrify and attract new
> industries (and yuppies) to revitalize their tax base, politicians in
> Detroit embraced their city's decline.
And also corruption and inefficiency.
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| Re: I Feel Old [message #308282 is a reply to message #308237] |
Tue, 12 January 2016 11:28 |
Peter Flass
Messages: 8375
Registered: December 2011
Karma: 0
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Senior Member |
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Stephen Sprunk <stephen@sprunk.org> wrote:
> On 09-Jan-16 22:56, Osmium wrote:
>> "Stephen Sprunk" wrote:
>>> In rare cases, a property's FMV can go negative if teardown cost
>>> (or similar, e.g. toxic waste cleanup) exceeds land value.
>>
>> I wonder if that was a factor in Detroit's bankruptcy?
>
> Specifically, Detroit couldn't cover its pension obligations.
>
> However, that was not really a surprise; property values in Detroit had
> been falling for decades, partly due to White Flight and partly due to
> the loss of so many auto manufacturing jobs to RTW states, Mexico and
> Canada.
>
> While similarly declining cities tried to gentrify and attract new
> industries (and yuppies) to revitalize their tax base, politicians in
> Detroit embraced their city's decline.
>
> The result was inevitable; if it hadn't been the real estate bubble
> bursting that tipped them over the line into bankruptcy, it would have
> been something else a few years later.
>
>> I assusme those miles of houses are owned by the city or county by
>> now.
>
> Michigan has one of the most aggressive "land bank" programs in the US,
> in large part to artificially reduce housing supply and thus drive up
> the price for the remaining ones, but also because vacant and abandoned
> houses have _much_ higher crime (especially arson) rates, which drives
> up the cost of public services, and spreading out the occupied houses
> drives up utility and road costs too.
>
>> And I would expect any honest valuation would show that they have
>> a net negative value.
>
> Probably some of them; shortly after the bubble burst, the median house
> price in Detroit had dropped to $18k. That made it very easy to start
> up land banks, and every dollar spent buying vacant or abandoned houses
> paid back more than a dollar in increased property taxes on the rest.
They're trying to condemn whole neighborhoods, so they can bulldoze the
houses and then don't have to provide services, which will save them lots
of money. I read that Quicken, or the guy that owns Quicken, has bought up
a few of the wonderful old buildings downtown and is rehabbing them, trying
to re-establish walkable neighborhoods. Also, some neighborhoods have a
large number of old Victorian houses that people have been buying for
pennies on the dollar to fix up. It may be that the era of bargains is
over.
>
>> The optimum use of the land would probably be to grow radishes or
>> something like that.
>
> I read various plans at the time for the banked land, but I haven't
> heard which (if any) was actually implemented.
>
--
Pete
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| Re: I Feel Old [message #308291 is a reply to message #308274] |
Tue, 12 January 2016 11:44 |
Anne & Lynn Wheel
Messages: 3156
Registered: January 2012
Karma: 0
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Senior Member |
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hancock4@bbs.cpcn.com writes:
> This is nothing new. The US military was hamstrung by enormous
> purchasing regulations prior to WW II and was unable to build up.
> (Download the official Signal Corps history, volume 1 has a whole
> chapter on the incredible B/S they had to go through.)
>
> Indeed, government procurement was a problem in the 1930s when FDR
> was trying to fight the Depression. FDR had to key assistants,
> Hopkins and Ickes. Hopkins wanted to spend money fast and furious
> to alleviate suffering and give people food, shelter, and something
> to do, and not worry about waste or fraud. Ickes, in contrast,
> was very fussy and would not spend a dime until everything was
> thoroughly discussed and checked out.
There is periodic stuff about DOD budget in general. in the 90s,
congress passed legislation that all federal agencies had to pass
regular financial audit ... so far DOD has been unable to. There was big
press that Marines had passed one ... but it turned out it was a little
premature ... found several things that they failed. There have been
some claims that DOD might pass an financial audit in 2017 (two decades
after the law passed) ... but recent references are casting doubt that
is going to be possible.
one of the conspiracy stories is about a report concerning trillion
dollars that had gone missing in DOD ... but in 9/11 ... the plane took
out the accounting section and all that information went missing.
2002, congress let the financial responsibility act expire (spending
couldn't exceed revenue)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PAYGO
posts
http://www.garlic.com/~lynn/submisc.html#fiscal.responsibili ty.act
by the middle of last decade, the savaging of any fiscal responsible
budget by congress, the US comptroller general was including in speeches
that nobody in congress was capable of middle school arithmetic (for
what they were doing to the budget, massive license to steal). posts
http://www.garlic.com/~lynn/submisc.html#comptroller.general
the first major bill after letting fiscal responsibility act expire was
Medicare Part-D ... comptroller general would claim that it comes to be
a long term $40T item (and gift to the drug industry). CBS 60mins did
expose on what went on in congress ... and the 18 republican members of
congress & staff that shepherded it through. At last minute, just before
final vote, they insert a one liner that prevents competitive bidding
and prevent distribution of CBO report detailing effects of the
change. After bill passes, all 18 have resigned and on drug industry
payroll. CBS shows drugs under part-D are three times as expensive as
the identical drugs from VA (that allows competitive bidding). posts
http://www.garlic.com/~lynn/submisc.html#medicare.part-d
2010 there was CBO report that in the interval since letting act expire,
tax revenue was reduced by $6T and spending increased by $6T (for $12T
budget gap compared to fiscal responsible budget).
--
virtualization experience starting Jan1968, online at home since Mar1970
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| Re: I Feel Old [message #308298 is a reply to message #308291] |
Tue, 12 January 2016 12:52 |
hancock4
Messages: 6746
Registered: December 2011
Karma: 0
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Senior Member |
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On Tuesday, January 12, 2016 at 11:44:27 AM UTC-5, Anne & Lynn Wheeler wrote:
> There is periodic stuff about DOD budget in general. in the 90s,
> congress passed legislation that all federal agencies had to pass
> regular financial audit ... so far DOD has been unable to. There was big
> press that Marines had passed one ... but it turned out it was a little
> premature ... found several things that they failed. There have been
> some claims that DOD might pass an financial audit in 2017 (two decades
> after the law passed) ... but recent references are casting doubt that
> is going to be possible.
One of the objectives of merging Army and Navy into DOD was to
get economies of scale by common purchasing. Supposedly, one
Secretary found that they used different belt buckles and saved a
lot of money by having a common source.
However, in the 1950s the Army and Navy fought a consolidated DOD,
they utterly hated giving up their own perogatives.
Unfortunately, the Cold War ruined a lot of plans to economize.
Immediately after WW II, the military was supposed to quickly
shrink down to a tiny level, and no draft. But Soviet rattling
and the Korean War, China, and then Vietnan kept DOD alive.
No politician wanted to be 'soft on defense', and of course defense
contracts meant big bucks for local companies in their districts.
As mentioned, many peaceniks of the 1960s who later came to
Congress found themselves as hawks, defending a military base
or contractor in their district. Suddenly that inhumane fighter
jet or bomber becomes a desirable thing.
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| Re: I Feel Old [message #308311 is a reply to message #308298] |
Tue, 12 January 2016 13:28 |
Stephen Sprunk
Messages: 2166
Registered: March 2013
Karma: 0
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Senior Member |
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On 12-Jan-16 11:52, hancock4@bbs.cpcn.com wrote:
> No politician wanted to be 'soft on defense', and of course defense
> contracts meant big bucks for local companies in their districts.
>
> As mentioned, many peaceniks of the 1960s who later came to Congress
> found themselves as hawks, defending a military base or contractor
> in their district. Suddenly that inhumane fighter jet or bomber
> becomes a desirable thing.
Also, defense contractors realized they could spread the manufacturing
around by breaking it into a thousand pieces and subbing out each one of
them to a different firm, so now _every_ Congressman has an employer in
their district to defend when a project comes up for debate.
The idea that these companies could produce _something else_, i.e.
something that would actually benefit the people, escapes them.
S
--
Stephen Sprunk "God does not play dice." --Albert Einstein
CCIE #3723 "God is an inveterate gambler, and He throws the
K5SSS dice at every possible opportunity." --Stephen Hawking
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| Re: I Feel Old [message #308320 is a reply to message #308311] |
Tue, 12 January 2016 13:58 |
hancock4
Messages: 6746
Registered: December 2011
Karma: 0
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Senior Member |
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On Tuesday, January 12, 2016 at 1:28:27 PM UTC-5, Stephen Sprunk wrote:
> Also, defense contractors realized they could spread the manufacturing
> around by breaking it into a thousand pieces and subbing out each one of
> them to a different firm, so now _every_ Congressman has an employer in
> their district to defend when a project comes up for debate.
Ironically, in WW II, small business got hurt. They couldn't get
raw materials without a priority, and they couldn't get defense
contracts since the govt preferred large companies. The govt
did put pressure on large companies to subcontract out stuff, but
the large companies generally preferred back then to do it all in-house.
Interesting how years ago a large company would pride itself to
be wholly self-contained. In some cases that was necessary since a
large plant might not have any resources available to it in its
otherwise rural town or neighborhood. Companies generated their own
power and had their own water and phone systems. But also, it was get
economies of scale and have reliable sources that couldn't be
interrupted. Henry Ford prided himself on River Rouge, where he
made his own steel, rubber, and glass for his cars.
In contrast, today companies want to be as small as possible and
contract out as much as they can.
> The idea that these companies could produce _something else_, i.e.
> something that would actually benefit the people, escapes them.
As Vietnam wound down, a number of defense contractors got interested
to supply vehicles and components for transit, such as Boeing and Rohr.
There was frustration in traditional transit circles as the newcomers
were seen as super experts when in fact they had little practical
experience in railroading.
(Of course, the reverse was true. During WW II, Budd attempted to
build an airplane for the Navy, which apparently didn't work out too
well.)
Anyway, today, Lockheed is a consolidation of several once-large
companies. IMHO, it's too big.
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| Re: I Feel Old [message #308337 is a reply to message #308320] |
Tue, 12 January 2016 15:49 |
Stephen Sprunk
Messages: 2166
Registered: March 2013
Karma: 0
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Senior Member |
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On 12-Jan-16 12:58, hancock4@bbs.cpcn.com wrote:
> Stephen Sprunk wrote:
>> Also, defense contractors realized they could spread the
>> manufacturing around by breaking it into a thousand pieces and
>> subbing out each one of them to a different firm, so now _every_
>> Congressman has an employer in their district to defend when a
>> project comes up for debate.
>
> ...
> Interesting how years ago a large company would pride itself to be
> wholly self-contained. In some cases that was necessary since a
> large plant might not have any resources available to it in its
> otherwise rural town or neighborhood. Companies generated their own
> power and had their own water and phone systems. But also, it was
> get economies of scale and have reliable sources that couldn't be
> interrupted. Henry Ford prided himself on River Rouge, where he
> made his own steel, rubber, and glass for his cars.
>
> In contrast, today companies want to be as small as possible and
> contract out as much as they can.
Supply chain management--and transportation--has gotten a lot better
since then, but partly it's business school fads. The trend for the
last few decades has been to outsource everything except your "core
competencies" on the assumption that a company specializing in that
particular function will do it better--or at least cheaper. Even if
not, outsourcing work (especially capital-intensive or low-wage work)
makes your financial reports to Wall St look better, which is more
important in some ways than actually making money.
S
--
Stephen Sprunk "God does not play dice." --Albert Einstein
CCIE #3723 "God is an inveterate gambler, and He throws the
K5SSS dice at every possible opportunity." --Stephen Hawking
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| Re: I Feel Old [message #308340 is a reply to message #308282] |
Tue, 12 January 2016 15:58 |
Stephen Sprunk
Messages: 2166
Registered: March 2013
Karma: 0
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Senior Member |
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On 12-Jan-16 10:28, Peter Flass wrote:
> Stephen Sprunk <stephen@sprunk.org> wrote:
>> On 09-Jan-16 22:56, Osmium wrote:
>>> I assusme those miles of houses are owned by the city or county
>>> by now.
>>
>> Michigan has one of the most aggressive "land bank" programs in the
>> US, in large part to artificially reduce housing supply and thus
>> drive up the price for the remaining ones, but also because vacant
>> and abandoned houses have _much_ higher crime (especially arson)
>> rates, which drives up the cost of public services, and spreading
>> out the occupied houses drives up utility and road costs too.
>>
>>> And I would expect any honest valuation would show that they
>>> have a net negative value.
>>
>> Probably some of them; shortly after the bubble burst, the median
>> house price in Detroit had dropped to $18k. That made it very easy
>> to start up land banks, and every dollar spent buying vacant or
>> abandoned houses paid back more than a dollar in increased property
>> taxes on the rest.
>
> They're trying to condemn whole neighborhoods,
They don't really need to condemn them; most owners in blighted areas
are quite happy to sell to _anyone_ who will pay a decent price, and
they've been trying to do so for years/decades.
One of the main functions of land banks is assembling large blocks of
land, which can be resold for more than the sum of their parts--or can
be turned into parks or other public uses that wouldn't be feasible with
a similar total area that was scattered around. Typically, they'll buy
up a neighborhood block by block, then rip up the streets in between and
connect the blocks together.
If a homeowner refuses to sell, there are three choices: offer to trade
them for an isolated property in a better area, condemn their property
and take it, or use eminent domain. Obviously, there is a public
relations benefit to negotiating for mutual benefit, even if it costs a
little more in the short term.
> so they can bulldoze the houses and then don't have to provide
> services, which will save them lots of money.
Yes; see above.
> I read that Quicken, or the guy that owns Quicken, has bought up a
> few of the wonderful old buildings downtown and is rehabbing them,
> trying to re-establish walkable neighborhoods. Also, some
> neighborhoods have a large number of old Victorian houses that people
> have been buying for pennies on the dollar to fix up. It may be that
> the era of bargains is over.
That's gentrification, which politicians in Detroit had steadfastly
resisted until the bankruptcy, rather than land banking.
S
--
Stephen Sprunk "God does not play dice." --Albert Einstein
CCIE #3723 "God is an inveterate gambler, and He throws the
K5SSS dice at every possible opportunity." --Stephen Hawking
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| Re: I Feel Old [message #308345 is a reply to message #308340] |
Tue, 12 January 2016 17:01 |
hancock4
Messages: 6746
Registered: December 2011
Karma: 0
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Senior Member |
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On Tuesday, January 12, 2016 at 3:58:03 PM UTC-5, Stephen Sprunk wrote:
> That's gentrification, which politicians in Detroit had steadfastly
> resisted until the bankruptcy, rather than land banking.
It amazes me that social activists condemn gentrification, or introduce
mandates that cripple it.
Where were those people when good solid middle class neighborhoods
deteriorated and the residents were forced out by crime and decay?
Anyway, gentrification brings in critically needed new money, money
that will contribute to desperately needed taxes and create jobs
in the neighborhood. The poor folks will benefit.
Some people say there is a "industry for the poor", that is, people
who make money off of poor people or services they're supposed to
get. I used to think that was nonsense, but now I'm not so sure.
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| Re: I Feel Old [message #308346 is a reply to message #308340] |
Tue, 12 January 2016 17:07 |
Charlie Gibbs
Messages: 5313
Registered: January 2012
Karma: 0
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Senior Member |
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On 2016-01-12, Stephen Sprunk <stephen@sprunk.org> wrote:
> On 12-Jan-16 10:28, Peter Flass wrote:
>
>> I read that Quicken, or the guy that owns Quicken, has bought up a
>> few of the wonderful old buildings downtown and is rehabbing them,
>> trying to re-establish walkable neighborhoods. Also, some
>> neighborhoods have a large number of old Victorian houses that people
>> have been buying for pennies on the dollar to fix up. It may be that
>> the era of bargains is over.
>
> That's gentrification, which politicians in Detroit had steadfastly
> resisted until the bankruptcy, rather than land banking.
Different strokes for different folks. Here in Vancouver, words like
"gentrification", "densification", and "renoviction" are the hot buzzwords.
A number of newspaper columnists have decried the accelerating trend to
bulldoze lovely 100-year-old houses that have created an image that is
rapidly disappearing. But they're not the ones with money...
--
/~\ cgibbs@kltpzyxm.invalid (Charlie Gibbs)
\ / I'm really at ac.dekanfrus if you read it the right way.
X Top-posted messages will probably be ignored. See RFC1855.
/ \ HTML will DEFINITELY be ignored. Join the ASCII ribbon campaign!
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| Re: I Feel Old [message #308349 is a reply to message #307884] |
Tue, 12 January 2016 17:22 |
Stephen Sprunk
Messages: 2166
Registered: March 2013
Karma: 0
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Senior Member |
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On 08-Jan-16 12:44, hancock4@bbs.cpcn.com wrote:
> Stephen Sprunk wrote:
>> Yes, you do; our payroll tax of 15.3% for Social Security &
>> Medicare provides lower benefits than you get in retirement and
>> _zero_ benefits before retirement.
>
> If a person becomes extremely disabled (really bad shape), they can
> qualify for S/S disability payments.
That's 8.9M people as of the end of 2015, or 3.3% of the under-65
population; there is zero benefit to the other 96.7%. The average
benefit is $1,165.79/mo, i.e. not enough for rent in most places.
>> OTOH, if you exclude people who don't have health insurance
>> (despite Obamacare), our health outcomes _are_ better, so it seems
>> we do get something for all the extra money we spend.
>
> The NYT did a report on that and some western countries have better
> healthcare outcomes than we do.
Only when you count the uninsured, which have _far_ worse outcomes than
the insured. That's why universal coverage is so important, and why
Obamacare has _measurably_ improved overall outcomes, even though two
thirds of the previously uninsured still haven't signed up.
> The U.S. spend 20% of its healthcare money on administration.
Yes. OTOH, is it worth paying someone a dollar to avoid wasting a
thousand dollars on unnecessary tests/procedures--or outright fraud?
> Anyone who visits a doctor's office will see staff _constantly_ on
> the phone trying to work something out with the insurance company.
> Constantly! Many times paperwork has to be resubmitted for payment.
> Sometimes reimbursement can take months. Doctors waste a lot of
> their time checking whether a test is covered by insurance or not.
The vast majority of claims are instantly approved; arguing over one
rejected claim can take hours, though, so to an observer, it may seem
like problems are a common event.
In most cases, the problem is that something was miscoded, and all it
takes to get approval is using the correct code. This is common since
each insurer uses different codes or has different rules for the same
codes, and it's understandable that office staff can't keep them all
straight. There are similar problems with sharing records.
> Another source of big waste is "defensive medicine" where doctors
> order unnecessary tests/procedures to cover their a** as a defense
> against lawsuits. This is very costly.
I hear such complaints all the time, but I've never seen anything that
seemed to match. OTOH, I _have_ seen doctors run all sorts of tests
"just in case" or to "rule X out", despite having lab reports for the
same test from another doctor (or ER). They tell me I have insurance,
so why am I complaining?
One doctor worried about how much radiation I'd been exposed to for all
these wasteful tests--and then ran other tests on me to rule _that_ out
as a cause, despite my problem obviously starting before the tests!
> As Time magazine reported last year, the health insurance industry
> is extremely profitable. They have big lobbyists.
Yes, they do. It's notable that, once the public option was killed,
they suddenly supported Obamacare--and switched all their campaign
contributions from Reps (who opposed it) to Dems (who supported it).
S
--
Stephen Sprunk "God does not play dice." --Albert Einstein
CCIE #3723 "God is an inveterate gambler, and He throws the
K5SSS dice at every possible opportunity." --Stephen Hawking
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| Re: I Feel Old [message #308353 is a reply to message #308345] |
Tue, 12 January 2016 17:42 |
Stephen Sprunk
Messages: 2166
Registered: March 2013
Karma: 0
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Senior Member |
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On 12-Jan-16 16:01, hancock4@bbs.cpcn.com wrote:
> Stephen Sprunk wrote:
>> That's gentrification, which politicians in Detroit had
>> steadfastly resisted until the bankruptcy, rather than land
>> banking.
>
> It amazes me that social activists condemn gentrification, or
> introduce mandates that cripple it.
>
> Where were those people when good solid middle class neighborhoods
> deteriorated and the residents were forced out by crime and decay?
The middle-class residents fled to the suburbs and were replaced with
lower-class residents--who happened to have a different skin color.
"Urban Renewal" earned the nickname "Negro Removal" because that was the
primary effect--and probably intent; it's not hard to see why social
activists would object. Gentrification is mostly the same thing.
> Anyway, gentrification brings in critically needed new money, money
> that will contribute to desperately needed taxes and create jobs in
> the neighborhood. The poor folks will benefit.
The poor folks can no longer afford to live there; they are forced to
move elsewhere and thus lose, not benefit, from gentrification.
S
--
Stephen Sprunk "God does not play dice." --Albert Einstein
CCIE #3723 "God is an inveterate gambler, and He throws the
K5SSS dice at every possible opportunity." --Stephen Hawking
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| Re: I Feel Old [message #308355 is a reply to message #308349] |
Tue, 12 January 2016 18:03 |
jack
Messages: 83
Registered: February 2012
Karma: 0
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Member |
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"Stephen Sprunk" <stephen@sprunk.org> wrote in message
news:n73u71$s4c$1@dont-email.me...
> On 08-Jan-16 12:44, hancock4@bbs.cpcn.com wrote:
>> Stephen Sprunk wrote:
>>> Yes, you do; our payroll tax of 15.3% for Social Security &
>>> Medicare provides lower benefits than you get in retirement and
>>> _zero_ benefits before retirement.
>>
>> If a person becomes extremely disabled (really bad shape), they can
>> qualify for S/S disability payments.
>
> That's 8.9M people as of the end of 2015, or 3.3% of the under-65
> population; there is zero benefit to the other 96.7%. The average
> benefit is $1,165.79/mo, i.e. not enough for rent in most places.
But those can obviously move to where the rent is lower.
>>> OTOH, if you exclude people who don't have health insurance
>>> (despite Obamacare), our health outcomes _are_ better, so it seems
>>> we do get something for all the extra money we spend.
>>
>> The NYT did a report on that and some western countries have better
>> healthcare outcomes than we do.
>
> Only when you count the uninsured, which have _far_ worse outcomes than
> the insured.
Its also true when you consider just the insured.
> That's why universal coverage is so important, and why
> Obamacare has _measurably_ improved overall outcomes, even though two
> thirds of the previously uninsured still haven't signed up.
>
>> The U.S. spend 20% of its healthcare money on administration.
>
> Yes. OTOH, is it worth paying someone a dollar to avoid wasting a
> thousand dollars on unnecessary tests/procedures--or outright fraud?
Not when the absolute vast bulk of that money wasted has nothing
whatever to do with unnecessary tests/procedures or outright fraud.
>> Anyone who visits a doctor's office will see staff _constantly_ on
>> the phone trying to work something out with the insurance company.
>> Constantly! Many times paperwork has to be resubmitted for payment.
>> Sometimes reimbursement can take months. Doctors waste a lot of
>> their time checking whether a test is covered by insurance or not.
> The vast majority of claims are instantly approved;
BULLSHIT.
> arguing over one
> rejected claim can take hours, though, so to an observer, it may seem
> like problems are a common event.
> In most cases, the problem is that something was miscoded, and all it
> takes to get approval is using the correct code.
Doesn’t explain why it takes so much time to get the correct code.
This is common since
> each insurer uses different codes or has different rules for the same
> codes, and it's understandable that office staff can't keep them all
> straight. There are similar problems with sharing records.
>
>> Another source of big waste is "defensive medicine" where doctors
>> order unnecessary tests/procedures to cover their a** as a defense
>> against lawsuits. This is very costly.
>
> I hear such complaints all the time, but I've never seen anything that
> seemed to match. OTOH, I _have_ seen doctors run all sorts of tests
> "just in case" or to "rule X out", despite having lab reports for the
> same test from another doctor (or ER). They tell me I have insurance,
> so why am I complaining?
>
> One doctor worried about how much radiation I'd been exposed to for all
> these wasteful tests--and then ran other tests on me to rule _that_ out
> as a cause, despite my problem obviously starting before the tests!
>
>> As Time magazine reported last year, the health insurance industry
>> is extremely profitable. They have big lobbyists.
>
> Yes, they do. It's notable that, once the public option was killed,
> they suddenly supported Obamacare--and switched all their campaign
> contributions from Reps (who opposed it) to Dems (who supported it).
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| Re: I Feel Old [message #308356 is a reply to message #308344] |
Tue, 12 January 2016 18:19 |
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Originally posted by: J. Clarke
In article <8b4050ca-56e4-44e5-af12-5f06d2796316@googlegroups.com>,
hancock4@bbs.cpcn.com says...
>
> On Tuesday, January 12, 2016 at 3:49:43 PM UTC-5, Stephen Sprunk wrote:
>
>
>> Supply chain management--and transportation--has gotten a lot better
>> since then, but partly it's business school fads. The trend for the
>> last few decades has been to outsource everything except your "core
>> competencies" on the assumption that a company specializing in that
>> particular function will do it better--or at least cheaper. Even if
>> not, outsourcing work (especially capital-intensive or low-wage work)
>> makes your financial reports to Wall St look better, which is more
>> important in some ways than actually making money.
>>
>
> Just today the Phila Inqr reported on the breakup of duPont. They
> describe how the Koch Bros bought a unit and are milking it dry, not
> investing a dime in it, but taking the profits to promote anti-tax
> political candidates.
>
> http://www.philly.com/philly/business/homepage/20160112_Cuts _to_DuPont_s_research__business_draw_mixed_reactions.html
>
>
> New owners of duPont do not want to invest anything in R&D.
> http://mobile.philly.com/beta?wss=/philly/columnists/joseph- distefano&id=364586981
>
> http://www.philly.com/philly/blogs/inq-phillydeals/364799621 .html
And another one of the great ones slowly circles the drain.
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| Re: I Feel Old [message #308358 is a reply to message #307391] |
Tue, 12 January 2016 18:47 |
Stephen Sprunk
Messages: 2166
Registered: March 2013
Karma: 0
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Senior Member |
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On 04-Jan-16 14:43, Osmium wrote:
> "Stephen Sprunk" wrote:
>> You may hear about 401(k), 403(b), IRA or other retirement plans;
>> these are often mistakenly called pensions, but they're not.
>> What's relevant here is that their funds _are_ held in trust by a
>> third party, unlike pensions (other than the GM/UAW exception).
>
> When 401Ks started being popular my employer gave me a packet of
> literature about this new "retirement plan" I read it over and over
> and over and never did find a retirement plan. ... It was a plan to
> accumulate a pile of money, if you chose to you could, havling the
> pile, buy an annuity and have a simulated retirement plan.
You seem to be equating "retirement plan" with "life annuity", but the
latter is a subset; the former includes _any_ plan to provide income
during retirement.
Rather than cashing out and buying a life annuity with said pile of
money, you could simply leave it invested in the market and take out a
portion when you need some--and at much lower tax rates. Whatever is
left over when you die goes to your designated beneficiary(ies).
(For those not familiar with life annuities, they're essentially the
opposite of life insurance: they pay out when you _don't_ die.)
> But from everything I saw, actually buying an annuity is a very
> poor choice for most people.
The main benefit of a life annuity is protecting against the risk of
living longer than expected. However, buying insurance has a cost in
itself, and there's nothing left over when you do die.
Pensions are essentially life annuities run by employers as a sideline
rather than by an insurance company as its core competency. Does that
really sound like a good idea if you're looking for security?
> It drove me absolutely crazy that they couldn't have some English
> speaking person do their write-up.
I never had a problem reading the materials that my employers or plan
administrators gave me. They didn't provide much direction in _how_ to
invest within the plan, but there's no shortage of advice floating
around the Web, and I've beaten the market every year for nearly 20
years with maybe an hour of work. OTOH, every year the best Wall St
analysts lose to a monkey throwing darts, so it's not that tough.
S
--
Stephen Sprunk "God does not play dice." --Albert Einstein
CCIE #3723 "God is an inveterate gambler, and He throws the
K5SSS dice at every possible opportunity." --Stephen Hawking
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| Re: I Feel Old [message #308362 is a reply to message #308358] |
Tue, 12 January 2016 19:27 |
Morten Reistad
Messages: 2108
Registered: December 2011
Karma: 0
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Senior Member |
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In article <n7435h$gfp$1@dont-email.me>,
Stephen Sprunk <stephen@sprunk.org> wrote:
> On 04-Jan-16 14:43, Osmium wrote:
>> "Stephen Sprunk" wrote:
>>> You may hear about 401(k), 403(b), IRA or other retirement plans;
>>> these are often mistakenly called pensions, but they're not.
>>> What's relevant here is that their funds _are_ held in trust by a
>>> third party, unlike pensions (other than the GM/UAW exception).
>>
>> When 401Ks started being popular my employer gave me a packet of
>> literature about this new "retirement plan" I read it over and over
>> and over and never did find a retirement plan. ... It was a plan to
>> accumulate a pile of money, if you chose to you could, havling the
>> pile, buy an annuity and have a simulated retirement plan.
>
> You seem to be equating "retirement plan" with "life annuity", but the
> latter is a subset; the former includes _any_ plan to provide income
> during retirement.
>
> Rather than cashing out and buying a life annuity with said pile of
> money, you could simply leave it invested in the market and take out a
> portion when you need some--and at much lower tax rates. Whatever is
> left over when you die goes to your designated beneficiary(ies).
>
> (For those not familiar with life annuities, they're essentially the
> opposite of life insurance: they pay out when you _don't_ die.)
>
>> But from everything I saw, actually buying an annuity is a very
>> poor choice for most people.
>
> The main benefit of a life annuity is protecting against the risk of
> living longer than expected. However, buying insurance has a cost in
> itself, and there's nothing left over when you do die.
>
> Pensions are essentially life annuities run by employers as a sideline
> rather than by an insurance company as its core competency. Does that
> really sound like a good idea if you're looking for security?
Only in America. This is forbidden, or so regulated it in practice is.
Having the employer manage the pension fund, that is. Almost every other
western country has strict rules for the management of these. Even a
bank or a brokerage needs chinese walls between itself and the fund.
There are, in most places, also clear limits to how much of the fund
payment that can go to buy the company shares; with limits on the order
of 15% or so.
>> It drove me absolutely crazy that they couldn't have some English
>> speaking person do their write-up.
>
> I never had a problem reading the materials that my employers or plan
> administrators gave me. They didn't provide much direction in _how_ to
> invest within the plan, but there's no shortage of advice floating
> around the Web, and I've beaten the market every year for nearly 20
> years with maybe an hour of work. OTOH, every year the best Wall St
> analysts lose to a monkey throwing darts, so it's not that tough.
There are two main ways to try to beat the market. One works, reliably; the
other doesn't; just as reliably. Stock picking; i.e. predicting which
company/bond/fund will outperform the rest does not. Instrument picking;
i.e. choosing cash, bonds, real estate, stocks to match the business
cycle does. Almost everyone can tell where on the "cycle clock" you are,
within 1-2 "hours"; and that is plenty to beat the market.
At the recession side, 6 is the bottom, 9 is the recovery, 12 is the top.
And 3 is the way down. I would say the US is at an 8, somewhat wavering;
but the top may be passed in a few months. It is pretty easy to get a feel
for where you are in this cycle; everyone sees so much of this that almost
everyone gets the timing within 1-2 "hours".
From around 6:30 to 11:30 hold stocks. They generally outperform everything
else, but they only move ahead ca from 7 till 11. Otherwise stay in bonds or
cash. When interest rates go down the bonds go up. Interest rates go up until
ca 3:00, and then drop sharply; so stay in bonds during the dip. Get in at
around 2:30.
You can also generally get good interest on bonds, so they are sensible
except when outperformed by stocks; or just on the very top of the cycle.
They are a lot less volatile than stocks, so if in doubt go for bonds.
This is an investment strategy that is forbidden for the large volume of
managed funds out there. Allowing it for the large portfolios would wreck
total havoc with the markets. But for your own, private 401 you can go right
ahead. Most funds have fixed ratios; 40:50:10 is pretty standard; 40% stocks,
50% bonds and 10 varying (cash, stocks, bonds).
-- mrr
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| Re: I Feel Old [message #308368 is a reply to message #308344] |
Tue, 12 January 2016 20:37 |
Anne & Lynn Wheel
Messages: 3156
Registered: January 2012
Karma: 0
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Senior Member |
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hancock4@bbs.cpcn.com writes:
> Just today the Phila Inqr reported on the breakup of duPont. They
> describe how the Koch Bros bought a unit and are milking it dry, not
> investing a dime in it, but taking the profits to promote anti-tax
> political candidates.
>
> http://www.philly.com/philly/business/homepage/20160112_Cuts _to_DuPont_s_research__business_draw_mixed_reactions.html
>
> New owners of duPont do not want to invest anything in R&D.
> http://mobile.philly.com/beta?wss=/philly/columnists/joseph- distefano&id=364586981
>
> http://www.philly.com/philly/blogs/inq-phillydeals/364799621 .html
standard process for private-equity
http://www.garlic.com/~lynn/submisc.html#private.equity
there is "Smedley Butler"
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smedley_Butler
with "War Is a Racket"
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/War_Is_a_Racket
perpetual war
http://www.garlic.com/~lynn/submisc.html#perpetual.war
but also (Prescott Bush):
Business Plot
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Business_Plot
1934: The Plot Against America
http://harpers.org/blog/2007/07/1934-the-plot-against-americ a/
How Bush's grandfather helped Hitler's rise to power
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2004/sep/25/usa.secondworld war
Prescott Bush
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prescott_Bush
and
Father of Koch Brothers Helped Build Nazi Oil Refinery, Book Says
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/12/us/politics/father-of-koch -brothers-helped-build-nazi-oil-refinery-book-says.html
But the book is largely focused on the Koch family, stretching back to
its involvement in the far-right John Birch Society and the political
and business activities of the father, Fred C. Koch, who found some of
his earliest business success overseas in the years leading up to
World War II. One venture was a partnership with the American Nazi
sympathizer William Rhodes Davis, who, according to Ms. Mayer, hired
Mr. Koch to help build the third-largest oil refinery in the Third
Reich, a critical industrial cog in Hitler's war machine.
.... snip ...
June1940, Germany had a victory celebration at the Waldorf-Astoria with
major industrialists. Lots of them were there to hear how to do business
with the Nazis, Intrepid, loc1901-4:
One prominent figure at the German victory celebration was Torkild
Rieber, of Texaco, whose tankers eluded the British blockade. The
company had already been warned, at Roosevelt's instigation, about
violations of the Neutrality Law. But Rieber had set up an elaborate
scheme for shipping oil and petroleum products through neutral ports in
South America. With the Germans now preparing to turn the English
Channel into what Churchill thought would become "river of blood," other
industrialists were eager to learn from Texaco how to do more business
with Hitler.
.... snip ...
VP (& former replacement CIA director) ... claims no knowledge of such
activities
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran%E2%80%93Contra_affair
because he was fulltime administration point person deregulating
financial industry ... creating S&L crisis
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Savings_and_loan_crisis
along with other members of his family
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Savings_and_loan_crisis#Silvera do_Savings_and_Loan
and another
http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?res=9D0CE0D81E3BF 937A25753C1A966958260
and another presides over the economic mess, 70 times larger than S&L crisis.
also Lehman's Gift To Jeb Bush For Funneling Pension Money: A $1.3
Million Consulting "Job"
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-08-19/lehmans-gift-jeb-bu sh-funneling-pension-money-13-million-consulting-job
more recent: Wall Street Fine Print: Retirees Want FBI Probe Of Pension
Investment Deals
http://www.ibtimes.com/wall-street-fine-print-retirees-want- fbi-probe-pension-investment-deals-2250476
John Foster Dulles plays major role in rebuilding German's economy and
military ... recent references
http://www.garlic.com/~lynn/2014c.html#35 Royal Pardon For Turing
http://www.garlic.com/~lynn/2014c.html#36 Royal Pardon For Turing
http://www.garlic.com/~lynn/2015.html#26 channel islands, definitely not the location of LEO
http://www.garlic.com/~lynn/2015.html#62 IBM Data Processing Center and Pi
http://www.garlic.com/~lynn/2015b.html#13 Keydriven bit permutations
http://www.garlic.com/~lynn/2015b.html#52 IBM Data Processing Center and Pi
http://www.garlic.com/~lynn/2015b.html#68 Why do we have wars?
http://www.garlic.com/~lynn/2015b.html#69 past of nukes, was Future of support for telephone rotary dial ?
http://www.garlic.com/~lynn/2015b.html#71 Why do we have wars?
http://www.garlic.com/~lynn/2015b.html#78 past of nukes, was Future of support for telephone rotary dial ?
http://www.garlic.com/~lynn/2015b.html#86 past of nukes, was Future of support for telephone rotary dial ?
http://www.garlic.com/~lynn/2015c.html#35 past of nukes, was Future of support for telephone rotary dial ?
http://www.garlic.com/~lynn/2015c.html#45 The Battle of Bretton Woods: John Maynard Keynes, Harry Dexter White, and the Making of a New World Order
http://www.garlic.com/~lynn/2015c.html#51 past of nukes, was Future of support for telephone rotary dial ?
http://www.garlic.com/~lynn/2015c.html#70 God No, the U.S. Air Force Doesn't Need Another Curtis LeMay
http://www.garlic.com/~lynn/2015d.html#13 Fully Restored WWII Fighter Plane Up for Auction
http://www.garlic.com/~lynn/2015d.html#37 End of vacuum tubes in computers?
http://www.garlic.com/~lynn/2015d.html#53 Western Union envisioned internet functionality
http://www.garlic.com/~lynn/2015f.html#29 Eric Holder Returns as Hero to Law Firm That Lobbies for Big Banks
http://www.garlic.com/~lynn/2015f.html#36 Eric Holder, Wall Street Double Agent, Comes in From the Cold
http://www.garlic.com/~lynn/2015f.html#77 1973--TI 8 digit electric calculator--$99.95
http://www.garlic.com/~lynn/2015g.html#7 1973--TI 8 digit electric calculator--$99.95
http://www.garlic.com/~lynn/2015g.html#10 1973--TI 8 digit electric calculator--$99.95
http://www.garlic.com/~lynn/2015g.html#55 1973--TI 8 digit electric calculator--$99.95
http://www.garlic.com/~lynn/2015h.html#0 How Corporate America Invented Christian America; Inside one reverend's big business-backed 1940s crusade to make the country conservative again
http://www.garlic.com/~lynn/2015h.html#26 Putin's Great Crime: He Defends His Allies and Attacks His Enemies
http://www.garlic.com/~lynn/2015h.html#28 rationality
http://www.garlic.com/~lynn/2015h.html#119 For those who like to regress to their youth? :-)
When 1943 Strategic Bombing Program was looking for plans and location
of German military and industrial targets, they got the information from
wallstreet.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strategic_bombing_during_World _War_II
--
virtualization experience starting Jan1968, online at home since Mar1970
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| Re: I Feel Old [message #308372 is a reply to message #308274] |
Tue, 12 January 2016 21:46 |
Anne & Lynn Wheel
Messages: 3156
Registered: January 2012
Karma: 0
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Senior Member |
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hancock4@bbs.cpcn.com writes:
> In additional to Defense, which they can't spend enough on, Republicans
> are also big on public safety, such as more cops, more equipment for
> cops, and prisons.
there has been big upswing in militarizing the police force, giving all
sort of "surplus" military gear to police departments ... so military
can turn around and declare a shortage of military gear justifying new
military procurements, recent reference
http://www.garlic.com/~lynn/2015e.html#92 prices, was Western Union envisioned internet functionality
part of the enormous upswing in privatizing government especially last
decade ... has been the privatizing of prisons ... and associated
enormous corruption.
How Corrupt Is The US: An Extraordinary Example
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-01-12/how-corrupt-us-extr aordinary-example
related theme
How Corrupt Is the American Government
http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2016/01/corrupt-american-gove rnment.html
past posts mentioning private prisons
http://www.garlic.com/~lynn/2013d.html#37 What Makes an Architecture Bizarre?
http://www.garlic.com/~lynn/2013d.html#43 What Makes an Architecture Bizarre?
http://www.garlic.com/~lynn/2013j.html#61 What Makes a Tax System Bizarre?
http://www.garlic.com/~lynn/2013j.html#82 copyright protection/Doug Englebart
http://www.garlic.com/~lynn/2013k.html#34 What Makes a Tax System Bizarre?
http://www.garlic.com/~lynn/2014c.html#25 Royal Pardon For Turing
http://www.garlic.com/~lynn/2015e.html#74 prices, was Western Union envisioned internet functionality
http://www.garlic.com/~lynn/2015e.html#85 prices, was Western Union envisioned internet functionality
http://www.garlic.com/~lynn/2015g.html#27 OT: efforts to repeal strict public safety laws
recent posts mentioning congress considered the most corrupt institution
on earth:
http://www.garlic.com/~lynn/2013e.html#70 What Makes an Architecture Bizarre?
http://www.garlic.com/~lynn/2013e.html#87 What Makes an Architecture Bizarre?
http://www.garlic.com/~lynn/2013f.html#69 The cloud is killing traditional hardware and software
http://www.garlic.com/~lynn/2013g.html#80 'Big four' accountants 'use knowledge of Treasury to help rich avoid tax'
http://www.garlic.com/~lynn/2013g.html#81 Ireland feels the heat from Apple tax row
http://www.garlic.com/~lynn/2013h.html#55 OT: "Highway Patrol" back on TV
http://www.garlic.com/~lynn/2013i.html#79 What Makes an Architecture Bizarre?
http://www.garlic.com/~lynn/2013i.html#94 What Makes an Architecture Bizarre?
http://www.garlic.com/~lynn/2013j.html#78 What Makes an Architecture Bizarre?
http://www.garlic.com/~lynn/2013k.html#32 What Makes a Tax System Bizarre?
http://www.garlic.com/~lynn/2014c.html#50 Broadband pricing
http://www.garlic.com/~lynn/2014j.html#81 No Internet. No Microsoft Windows. No iPods. This Is What Tech Was Like In 1984
http://www.garlic.com/~lynn/2014m.html#1 weird apple trivia
http://www.garlic.com/~lynn/2015e.html#48 These are the companies abandoning the U.S. to dodge taxes
http://www.garlic.com/~lynn/2015e.html#80 1973--TI 8 digit electric calculator--$99.95
http://www.garlic.com/~lynn/2015e.html#96 1973--TI 8 digit electric calculator--$99.95
http://www.garlic.com/~lynn/2015f.html#10 1973--TI 8 digit electric calculator--$99.95
http://www.garlic.com/~lynn/2015f.html#13 1973--TI 8 digit electric calculator--$99.95
http://www.garlic.com/~lynn/2015h.html#48 Protecting Social Security from the Thieves in the Night
http://www.garlic.com/~lynn/2016.html#22 I Feel Old
http://www.garlic.com/~lynn/2016.html#24 1976 vs. 2016?
--
virtualization experience starting Jan1968, online at home since Mar1970
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| Re: I Feel Old [message #308375 is a reply to message #308349] |
Tue, 12 January 2016 22:01 |
osmium
Messages: 749
Registered: April 2013
Karma: 0
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Senior Member |
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"Stephen Sprunk" wrote:
> One doctor worried about how much radiation I'd been exposed to for all
> these wasteful tests--and then ran other tests on me to rule _that_ out
> as a cause, despite my problem obviously starting before the tests!
Logical thinking is not a widely distributed trait.
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| Re: I Feel Old [message #308378 is a reply to message #308375] |
Tue, 12 January 2016 22:22 |
jack
Messages: 83
Registered: February 2012
Karma: 0
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"Osmium" <r124c4u102@comcast.net> wrote in message
news:dflt0iFnuqqU1@mid.individual.net...
> "Stephen Sprunk" wrote:
>
>> One doctor worried about how much radiation I'd been exposed to for all
>> these wasteful tests--and then ran other tests on me to rule _that_ out
>> as a cause, despite my problem obviously starting before the tests!
>
> Logical thinking is not a widely distributed trait.
Not just logical thinking either, even just basic memory too.
I happen to have the arteries in my ankles quite deep.
My regular GP does a pulse check there to check for
clogged leg arteries and never finds any pulse there.
My cardiologist told me about that problem that isnt
all that unusual and pointed out that the pulse is very
obvious on the top of my feet so the legs are fine.
I told the regular GP that and he agreed, but still fails
to find a pulse in the ankles and has to be told again.
He's the primarily gynaecologist in town and delivers
most of the babies. Bit of a worry. I keep using him
because some of the others in that surgery are even
worse and the other one in town with a very good
reputation is very difficult to get an appointment
with when you need one urgently.
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| Re: I Feel Old [message #308402 is a reply to message #308362] |
Wed, 13 January 2016 12:18 |
Stephen Sprunk
Messages: 2166
Registered: March 2013
Karma: 0
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Senior Member |
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On 12-Jan-16 18:27, Morten Reistad wrote:
> Stephen Sprunk <stephen@sprunk.org> wrote:
>> On 04-Jan-16 14:43, Osmium wrote:
>>> But from everything I saw, actually buying a[ life] annuity is a
>>> very poor choice for most people.
>>
>> The main benefit of a life annuity is protecting against the risk
>> of living longer than expected. However, buying insurance has a
>> cost in itself, and there's nothing left over when you do die.
>>
>> Pensions are essentially life annuities run by employers as a
>> sideline rather than by an insurance company as its core
>> competency. Does that really sound like a good idea if you're
>> looking for security?
>
> Only in America. This is forbidden, or so regulated it in practice
> is. Having the employer manage the pension fund, that is.
Yes, that was the context.
> Almost every other western country has strict rules for the
> management of these. Even a bank or a brokerage needs chinese walls
> between itself and the fund.
With good reason; we should do the same. Unfortunately, most of the
damage is already done: pensions are almost gone in the US, victims of
bankruptcy either due to incompetent managers or corporate raiders.
> There are, in most places, also clear limits to how much of the fund
> payment that can go to buy the company shares; with limits on the
> order of 15% or so.
Even that is questionable to me; if your employer goes bankrupt, it's
bad enough that you lose your income, but also 15% of your pension?
>>> It drove me absolutely crazy that they couldn't have some
>>> English speaking person do their write-up.
>>
>> I never had a problem reading the materials that my employers or
>> plan administrators gave me. They didn't provide much direction in
>> _how_ to invest within the plan, but there's no shortage of advice
>> floating around the Web, and I've beaten the market every year for
>> nearly 20 years with maybe an hour of work. OTOH, every year the
>> best Wall St analysts lose to a monkey throwing darts, so it's not
>> that tough.
>
> There are two main ways to try to beat the market. One works,
> reliably; the other doesn't; just as reliably. Stock picking; i.e.
> predicting which company/bond/fund will outperform the rest does not.
> Instrument picking; i.e. choosing cash, bonds, real estate, stocks to
> match the business cycle does. Almost everyone can tell where on the
> "cycle clock" you are, within 1-2 "hours"; and that is plenty to beat
> the market.
That's long been my theory, and it seems to be correct in practice.
> From around 6:30 to 11:30 hold stocks. They generally outperform
> everything else, but they only move ahead ca from 7 till 11.
> Otherwise stay in bonds or cash. When interest rates go down the
> bonds go up. Interest rates go up until ca 3:00, and then drop
> sharply; so stay in bonds during the dip. Get in at around 2:30.
I don't like keeping my funds in cash, so I just switch between stocks
and bonds, and even that I only do when I have a feeling there is going
to be a major correction soon.
> You can also generally get good interest on bonds, so they are
> sensible except when outperformed by stocks; or just on the very top
> of the cycle. They are a lot less volatile than stocks, so if in
> doubt go for bonds.
Absent the above feeling, I keep age% in bonds and the rest split evenly
between domestic and intl stocks. That's how new contributions and
reinvested dividends get automatically split. I get a notice when any
of the allocations gets 5% off target, and I rebalance. That's it.
> This is an investment strategy that is forbidden for the large volume
> of managed funds out there. Allowing it for the large portfolios
> would wreck total havoc with the markets. But for your own, private
> 401 you can go right ahead. Most funds have fixed ratios; 40:50:10 is
> pretty standard; 40% stocks, 50% bonds and 10 varying (cash, stocks,
> bonds).
Yes; if a trillion-dollar managed fund moved all of its assets from one
class to another, it could potentially _cause_ the shift that the
manager is trying to anticipate and would be considered (potentially
criminal) market manipulation. There's a lot of clever things you can
get away with when you're too small to affect the market overall.
Index funds, of course, don't have that problem--unless large numbers of
people get in sync and move all their money from one set of indexes to
another set at the same time, which obviously isn't the index fund's
fault and wouldn't be market manipulation. But as long as the advice
out there is so vague and contradictory, that doesn't seem likely.
S
--
Stephen Sprunk "God does not play dice." --Albert Einstein
CCIE #3723 "God is an inveterate gambler, and He throws the
K5SSS dice at every possible opportunity." --Stephen Hawking
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| Re: I Feel Old [message #308404 is a reply to message #308349] |
Wed, 13 January 2016 13:14 |
hancock4
Messages: 6746
Registered: December 2011
Karma: 0
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Senior Member |
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On Tuesday, January 12, 2016 at 5:23:00 PM UTC-5, Stephen Sprunk wrote:
> On 08-Jan-16 12:44, hancock4@ wrote:
>> Anyone who visits a doctor's office will see staff _constantly_ on
>> the phone trying to work something out with the insurance company.
>> Constantly! Many times paperwork has to be resubmitted for payment.
>> Sometimes reimbursement can take months. Doctors waste a lot of
>> their time checking whether a test is covered by insurance or not.
>
> The vast majority of claims are instantly approved; arguing over one
> rejected claim can take hours, though, so to an observer, it may seem
> like problems are a common event.
"Vast majority of claims instantly approved"? Certainly not
my experience.
At one point, all claims of myself and also my mother were rejected
and had to be resubmitted (different doctors, different insurers in
different states). They've improved since then, but a hell of
lot of claims still require resubmission by the doctor's office
or pharmarcy.
> In most cases, the problem is that something was miscoded, and all it
> takes to get approval is using the correct code. This is common since
> each insurer uses different codes or has different rules for the same
> codes, and it's understandable that office staff can't keep them all
> straight. There are similar problems with sharing records.
I thought healthcare diagnose codes were uniform. Yes, the rules
for each code vary tremendously by _plan_ even within an insurer.
Years ago, the healthcare companies offered about four or five
plans, basically varying in co-pays and deductibles, but generally
universal. Today, it's ridiculous.
>> Another source of big waste is "defensive medicine" where doctors
>> order unnecessary tests/procedures to cover their a** as a defense
>> against lawsuits. This is very costly.
>
> I hear such complaints all the time, but I've never seen anything that
> seemed to match. OTOH, I _have_ seen doctors run all sorts of tests
> "just in case" or to "rule X out", despite having lab reports for the
> same test from another doctor (or ER). They tell me I have insurance,
> so why am I complaining?
Unless you know a doctor really well on a personal level, they'll
never admit to running tests for defensive purposes. But "just in
case" is for that reason.
As mentioned, some areas of the country are more litigous than others.
Healthcare costs much more in Philadelphia than it does in Pittsburgh,
party for that reason. (As does auto insurance.)
> One doctor worried about how much radiation I'd been exposed to for all
> these wasteful tests--and then ran other tests on me to rule _that_ out
> as a cause, despite my problem obviously starting before the tests!
You're fortunate that a doctor was concerned about radiation, usually
they poo-poo any such concerns, or say modern tests don't emit much.
(FWIW, at the dentist, the technician no longer goes outside the room
to shoot the digital x-ray; and I don't think they wear film badges.)
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| Re: I Feel Old [message #308405 is a reply to message #308404] |
Wed, 13 January 2016 13:51 |
mausg
Messages: 2483
Registered: May 2013
Karma: 0
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Senior Member |
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On 2016-01-13, hancock4@bbs.cpcn.com <hancock4@bbs.cpcn.com> wrote:
> On Tuesday, January 12, 2016 at 5:23:00 PM UTC-5, Stephen Sprunk wrote:
>> On 08-Jan-16 12:44, hancock4@ wrote:
>>
>> I hear such complaints all the time, but I've never seen anything that
>> seemed to match. OTOH, I _have_ seen doctors run all sorts of tests
>> "just in case" or to "rule X out", despite having lab reports for the
>> same test from another doctor (or ER). They tell me I have insurance,
>> so why am I complaining?
>
> Unless you know a doctor really well on a personal level, they'll
> never admit to running tests for defensive purposes. But "just in
> case" is for that reason.
>
> As mentioned, some areas of the country are more litigous than others.
> Healthcare costs much more in Philadelphia than it does in Pittsburgh,
> party for that reason. (As does auto insurance.)
I know someone who is at a conferance in the UK at the moment,
discussing how injuries from car accidents vary in the EU. For
years it has been known that general medical problems vary too
>
>
>> One doctor worried about how much radiation I'd been exposed to for all
>> these wasteful tests--and then ran other tests on me to rule _that_ out
>> as a cause, despite my problem obviously starting before the tests!
>
> You're fortunate that a doctor was concerned about radiation, usually
> they poo-poo any such concerns, or say modern tests don't emit much.
>
> (FWIW, at the dentist, the technician no longer goes outside the room
> to shoot the digital x-ray; and I don't think they wear film badges.)
>
>
>
--
greymaus
.
.
....
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| Re: I Feel Old [message #308406 is a reply to message #308404] |
Wed, 13 January 2016 14:06 |
Stephen Sprunk
Messages: 2166
Registered: March 2013
Karma: 0
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Senior Member |
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On 13-Jan-16 12:14, hancock4@bbs.cpcn.com wrote:
> Stephen Sprunk wrote:
>> On 08-Jan-16 12:44, hancock4@ wrote:
>>> Anyone who visits a doctor's office will see staff _constantly_
>>> on the phone trying to work something out with the insurance
>>> company. Constantly! Many times paperwork has to be resubmitted
>>> for payment. Sometimes reimbursement can take months. Doctors
>>> waste a lot of their time checking whether a test is covered by
>>> insurance or not.
>>
>> The vast majority of claims are instantly approved; arguing over
>> one rejected claim can take hours, though, so to an observer, it
>> may seem like problems are a common event.
>
> "Vast majority of claims instantly approved"? Certainly not my
> experience.
I've had only two claims rejected _in my life_. The first was cleared
up with a short call to the insurer to explain the circumstances, and
the second was avoided by my dentist adjusting his schedule (oddly,
anesthesia was covered for two minor surgeries on the same day, but not
one minor each on two different days, which was our original plan).
> At one point, all claims of myself and also my mother were rejected
> and had to be resubmitted (different doctors, different insurers in
> different states). They've improved since then, but a hell of lot
> of claims still require resubmission by the doctor's office or
> pharmarcy.
Insurers invested a _lot_ of money in software to automatically approve
or reject claims as soon as they're submitted, and then they studied
which auto-rejections frequently get reversed and turned them into
auto-approvals. Since they're going to end up paying those claims
anyway, they want to avoid unnecessary labor costs--and focus their
adjusters on handling claims that really _should_ be denied.
>> In most cases, the problem is that something was miscoded, and all
>> it takes to get approval is using the correct code. This is common
>> since each insurer uses different codes or has different rules for
>> the same codes, and it's understandable that office staff can't
>> keep them all straight. There are similar problems with sharing
>> records.
>
> I thought healthcare diagnose codes were uniform.
Some use Medicare's codes, some don't; even those that do often have
additional codes for things Medicare doesn't cover or to distinguish
between similar cases where Medicare doesn't need to--but one case is
covered by private plans and one isn't. That's usually why things end
up "miscoded": they're coded correctly for Medicare, but an alternate
code has to be used with private plans to indicate it meets additional
qualifications that the original code doesn't.
> Yes, the rules for each code vary tremendously by _plan_ even within
> an insurer.
Well, at least within each class of plans. For instance, they may have
several PPO plans with the same rules with different payment structures
(e.g. lower premiums vs higher deductibles); ditto for HMO plans. My
insurer's EPO plans are almost identical to their PPO plans except a
referral is required to see a specialist, which means any given code
might be approved or rejected solely based on the _context_.
>> One doctor worried about how much radiation I'd been exposed to for
>> all these wasteful tests--and then ran other tests on me to rule
>> _that_ out as a cause, despite my problem obviously starting before
>> the tests!
>
> You're fortunate that a doctor was concerned about radiation,
> usually they poo-poo any such concerns, or say modern tests don't
> emit much.
Well, a dozen CT and MRI scans with contrast plus several dozen X-rays
within a couple months should concern _any_ doctor. I was concerned
myself after the first few, but I got used to ER docs refusing to treat
me at all if didn't agree. I never got the same doctor twice, of
course, and they apparently assumed that only _they_ could figure out
the issue--and only if they started over from scratch.
> (FWIW, at the dentist, the technician no longer goes outside the
> room to shoot the digital x-ray; and I don't think they wear film
> badges.)
My current dentist has two X-ray machines: the first is wall-mounted,
and they do leave the room, but it's only used for new patients or after
major surgeries; the second is handheld and they obviously can't leave
the room, and that gets used at least once for every visit.
S
--
Stephen Sprunk "God does not play dice." --Albert Einstein
CCIE #3723 "God is an inveterate gambler, and He throws the
K5SSS dice at every possible opportunity." --Stephen Hawking
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| Re: I Feel Old [message #308408 is a reply to message #308405] |
Wed, 13 January 2016 15:02 |
jack
Messages: 83
Registered: February 2012
Karma: 0
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Member |
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<mausg@mail.com> wrote in message news:slrnn9d74m.2j8.mausg@smaus.org...
> On 2016-01-13, hancock4@bbs.cpcn.com <hancock4@bbs.cpcn.com> wrote:
>> On Tuesday, January 12, 2016 at 5:23:00 PM UTC-5, Stephen Sprunk wrote:
>>> On 08-Jan-16 12:44, hancock4@ wrote:
>>>
>>> I hear such complaints all the time, but I've never seen anything that
>>> seemed to match. OTOH, I _have_ seen doctors run all sorts of tests
>>> "just in case" or to "rule X out", despite having lab reports for the
>>> same test from another doctor (or ER). They tell me I have insurance,
>>> so why am I complaining?
>>
>> Unless you know a doctor really well on a personal level, they'll
>> never admit to running tests for defensive purposes. But "just in
>> case" is for that reason.
>>
>> As mentioned, some areas of the country are more litigous than others.
>> Healthcare costs much more in Philadelphia than it does in Pittsburgh,
>> party for that reason. (As does auto insurance.)
>
> I know someone who is at a conferance in the UK at the moment,
> discussing how injuries from car accidents vary in the EU. For
> years it has been known that general medical problems vary too
Unsurprising with general medical problems given that diet and demographics
vary considerably and so does the genetics to a lesser extent.
>>> One doctor worried about how much radiation I'd been exposed to for all
>>> these wasteful tests--and then ran other tests on me to rule _that_ out
>>> as a cause, despite my problem obviously starting before the tests!
>>
>> You're fortunate that a doctor was concerned about radiation, usually
>> they poo-poo any such concerns, or say modern tests don't emit much.
>>
>> (FWIW, at the dentist, the technician no longer goes outside the room
>> to shoot the digital x-ray; and I don't think they wear film badges.)
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| Re: I Feel Old [message #308420 is a reply to message #307796] |
Wed, 13 January 2016 16:55 |
Stephen Sprunk
Messages: 2166
Registered: March 2013
Karma: 0
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Senior Member |
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On 07-Jan-16 11:22, hancock4@bbs.cpcn.com wrote:
> Stephen Sprunk wrote:
>> For some perspective, only 43.9M private-sector workers and
>> retirees even _have_ a pension, or ~18% of US adults--and most of
>> those people are already retired or will be soon. Pensions are
>> nearly extinct, in large part because nearly every company that had
>> one went bankrupt.
>
> Where are these numbers from?
43.9M is from PBGC. ~18% is Census Bureau's 14.5% of population under
18 inverted (to get 18 or over, i.e. adults) and multiplied by total
population, also from Census Bureau, and then divided into 43.9M.
I'm not sure both figures are from the same year, hence the ~; it might
be a percentage point or two off in either direction due to that, but
not enough to matter for our purposes.
> I know quite a few people who work for long standing companies that
> did _not_ go bankrupt, yet have lost or nearly lost their pension.
The only way a company can legally dump its debts is bankruptcy or
getting its creditors (workers in this case) to voluntarily agree.
S
--
Stephen Sprunk "God does not play dice." --Albert Einstein
CCIE #3723 "God is an inveterate gambler, and He throws the
K5SSS dice at every possible opportunity." --Stephen Hawking
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| Re: I Feel Old [message #308442 is a reply to message #308402] |
Wed, 13 January 2016 20:05 |
Lawrence Statton
Messages: 326
Registered: May 2013
Karma: 0
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Senior Member |
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Stephen Sprunk <stephen@sprunk.org> writes:
>
>> There are, in most places, also clear limits to how much of the fund
>> payment that can go to buy the company shares; with limits on the
>> order of 15% or so.
>
> Even that is questionable to me; if your employer goes bankrupt, it's
> bad enough that you lose your income, but also 15% of your pension?
>
This is a case where a neutral fund manager would be to your
advantage -- if you work for ReallyStableCorp (I would like to think of
an example from today, but I can't) having 15% in your own company might
actually be a perfectly reasonable risk.
Imagine an extreme case thought experiment -- the fund manager has no
idea who the employers of the participants actually is -- they are
nothing more than account numbers.
If investing in the company that happened to employ you were a good
risk, for John Smith who works at OtherCorp, it should be a good risk
for you, too.
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| Re: I Feel Old [message #308449 is a reply to message #308442] |
Wed, 13 January 2016 21:22 |
Stephen Sprunk
Messages: 2166
Registered: March 2013
Karma: 0
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Senior Member |
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On 13-Jan-16 19:05, Lawrence Statton wrote:
> Stephen Sprunk <stephen@sprunk.org> writes:
>>> There are, in most places, also clear limits to how much of the
>>> fund payment that can go to buy the company shares; with limits
>>> on the order of 15% or so.
>>
>> Even that is questionable to me; if your employer goes bankrupt,
>> it's bad enough that you lose your income, but also 15% of your
>> pension?
>
> This is a case where a neutral fund manager would be to your
> advantage -- if you work for ReallyStableCorp (I would like to think
> of an example from today, but I can't) having 15% in your own company
> might actually be a perfectly reasonable risk.
I disagree; fate-sharing is a serious problem--and history has shown
that even the most "stable" companies can shock everyone with a surprise
bankruptcy announcement.
> Imagine an extreme case thought experiment -- the fund manager has
> no idea who the employers of the participants actually is -- they
> are nothing more than account numbers.
>
> If investing in the company that happened to employ you were a good
> risk, for John Smith who works at OtherCorp, it should be a good
> risk for you, too.
No, because John Smith doesn't have the fate-sharing problem I do.
Beyond that, I wouldn't want 15% of my pension invested in _any_ single
company's stock. Probably not even any single company's bonds.
One exception would be during a transition from employer pensions to
trust pensions, since the most logical way to do that would be for the
employer to fund the trust with newly-issued equities representing its
existing obligations. However, I would expect the trusts to then swap
equities around so that they were all properly diversified.
S
--
Stephen Sprunk "God does not play dice." --Albert Einstein
CCIE #3723 "God is an inveterate gambler, and He throws the
K5SSS dice at every possible opportunity." --Stephen Hawking
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