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Predicting the future in five years as seen from 1983 [message #360036] Thu, 04 January 2018 16:55 Go to next message
Andreas Kohlbach is currently offline  Andreas Kohlbach
Messages: 1416
Registered: December 2011
Karma: 0
Senior Member
I am reading the BYTE magazine 9/1983 which is mainly about
portables. Yes, bricks like Kaypros, but also lean ones Epson HX-20 or
Tandy M1000.

Later in that issue Jerry Pournelle predicts 5 years into the future.

He got a lot right, like assumed RAM size of computers then (1-10 MB).
Also that most likely only some ascendance of the 8086 (he already
mentioning the 286) and Motorola 68000 will be dominant, with the Z8000
being a failure. Predicts the internet in 2000 (a computer giving answers
to any question which is "computable"). Says the 8" and 5 1/4" will
die. But is wrong that they will be replaced by some kind of hard
disk. He didn't see the 3 1/2" floppy coming.

To not spoil it more, you can get the full issue at
<https://archive.org/details/byte-magazine-1983-09>. If you are not
interested in the full issue and ask by email I can make a PDF extract
for you of just this part and return by email. Email me then.

But let me mention one more part of this article.

| The TI-59 programmable scientific calculator is considerably more
| powerful than ILIAC was. [in 1959]
|
| That development took 30 years, but technology always
| accelerates. Barring nuclear war, there should be nearly as much change
| in computers in the next 10 years as there was in the preceding 30.

I like the "Barring nuclear war...". *g* Today nobody takes nuclear war
into consideration. Remember, this was written 1983, and the Cold War was
quite hot.
--
Andreas
You know you are a redneck if
the fifth grade is referred to as "your senior year."
Re: Predicting the future in five years as seen from 1983 [message #360037 is a reply to message #360036] Thu, 04 January 2018 18:50 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Anonymous
Karma:
Originally posted by: J. Clarke

On Thu, 04 Jan 2018 16:55:50 -0500, Andreas Kohlbach
<ank@spamfence.net> wrote:

> I am reading the BYTE magazine 9/1983 which is mainly about
> portables. Yes, bricks like Kaypros, but also lean ones Epson HX-20 or
> Tandy M1000.
>
> Later in that issue Jerry Pournelle predicts 5 years into the future.
>
> He got a lot right, like assumed RAM size of computers then (1-10 MB).
> Also that most likely only some ascendance of the 8086 (he already
> mentioning the 286) and Motorola 68000 will be dominant, with the Z8000
> being a failure. Predicts the internet in 2000 (a computer giving answers
> to any question which is "computable"). Says the 8" and 5 1/4" will
> die. But is wrong that they will be replaced by some kind of hard
> disk. He didn't see the 3 1/2" floppy coming.
>
> To not spoil it more, you can get the full issue at
> <https://archive.org/details/byte-magazine-1983-09>. If you are not
> interested in the full issue and ask by email I can make a PDF extract
> for you of just this part and return by email. Email me then.
>
> But let me mention one more part of this article.
>
> | The TI-59 programmable scientific calculator is considerably more
> | powerful than ILIAC was. [in 1959]
> |
> | That development took 30 years, but technology always
> | accelerates. Barring nuclear war, there should be nearly as much change
> | in computers in the next 10 years as there was in the preceding 30.
>
> I like the "Barring nuclear war...". *g* Today nobody takes nuclear war
> into consideration. Remember, this was written 1983, and the Cold War was
> quite hot.

Perhaps though people should be taking nuclear war into consideration.
The various Soviet dictators were not particularly nice people but
they were neither terminally stupid nor batshit crazy. I am not sure
the same can be said for Kim Jong Un (or Donald Trump for that
matter).
Re: Predicting the future in five years as seen from 1983 [message #360059 is a reply to message #360037] Fri, 05 January 2018 04:28 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Jorgen Grahn is currently offline  Jorgen Grahn
Messages: 598
Registered: March 2012
Karma: 0
Senior Member
On Thu, 2018-01-04, J Clarke wrote:
> On Thu, 04 Jan 2018 16:55:50 -0500, Andreas Kohlbach
> <ank@spamfence.net> wrote:
....
>> But let me mention one more part of this article.
>>
>> | The TI-59 programmable scientific calculator is considerably more
>> | powerful than ILIAC was. [in 1959]
>> |
>> | That development took 30 years, but technology always
>> | accelerates. Barring nuclear war, there should be nearly as much change
>> | in computers in the next 10 years as there was in the preceding 30.
>>
>> I like the "Barring nuclear war...". *g* Today nobody takes nuclear war
>> into consideration. Remember, this was written 1983, and the Cold War was
>> quite hot.
>
> Perhaps though people should be taking nuclear war into consideration.
> The various Soviet dictators were not particularly nice people but
> they were neither terminally stupid nor batshit crazy.

Wasn't Stalin batshit crazy? I agree about the ones after him, though.

> I am not sure the same can be said for Kim Jong Un (or Donald Trump
> for that matter).

/Jorgen

--
// Jorgen Grahn <grahn@ Oo o. . .
\X/ snipabacken.se> O o .
Re: Predicting the future in five years as seen from 1983 [message #360062 is a reply to message #360059] Fri, 05 January 2018 05:59 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Anonymous
Karma:
Originally posted by: J. Clarke

On 5 Jan 2018 09:28:43 GMT, Jorgen Grahn <grahn+nntp@snipabacken.se>
wrote:

> On Thu, 2018-01-04, J Clarke wrote:
>> On Thu, 04 Jan 2018 16:55:50 -0500, Andreas Kohlbach
>> <ank@spamfence.net> wrote:
> ...
>>> But let me mention one more part of this article.
>>>
>>> | The TI-59 programmable scientific calculator is considerably more
>>> | powerful than ILIAC was. [in 1959]
>>> |
>>> | That development took 30 years, but technology always
>>> | accelerates. Barring nuclear war, there should be nearly as much change
>>> | in computers in the next 10 years as there was in the preceding 30.
>>>
>>> I like the "Barring nuclear war...". *g* Today nobody takes nuclear war
>>> into consideration. Remember, this was written 1983, and the Cold War was
>>> quite hot.
>>
>> Perhaps though people should be taking nuclear war into consideration.
>> The various Soviet dictators were not particularly nice people but
>> they were neither terminally stupid nor batshit crazy.
>
> Wasn't Stalin batshit crazy? I agree about the ones after him, though.

Crazy, yes, but not batshit. He was sane enough to understand that
hydrogen bombs raining down on his head was a Bad Thing. I'm not sure
Kim Jong Un recognizes that.
>
>> I am not sure the same can be said for Kim Jong Un (or Donald Trump
>> for that matter).
>
> /Jorgen
Re: Predicting the future in five years as seen from 1983 [message #360068 is a reply to message #360059] Fri, 05 January 2018 08:11 Go to previous messageGo to next message
jmfbahciv is currently offline  jmfbahciv
Messages: 6173
Registered: March 2012
Karma: 0
Senior Member
Jorgen Grahn wrote:
> On Thu, 2018-01-04, J Clarke wrote:
>> On Thu, 04 Jan 2018 16:55:50 -0500, Andreas Kohlbach
>> <ank@spamfence.net> wrote:
> ...
>>> But let me mention one more part of this article.
>>>
>>> | The TI-59 programmable scientific calculator is considerably more
>>> | powerful than ILIAC was. [in 1959]
>>> |
>>> | That development took 30 years, but technology always
>>> | accelerates. Barring nuclear war, there should be nearly as much change
>>> | in computers in the next 10 years as there was in the preceding 30.
>>>
>>> I like the "Barring nuclear war...". *g* Today nobody takes nuclear war
>>> into consideration. Remember, this was written 1983, and the Cold War was
>>> quite hot.
>>
>> Perhaps though people should be taking nuclear war into consideration.
>> The various Soviet dictators were not particularly nice people but
>> they were neither terminally stupid nor batshit crazy.
>
> Wasn't Stalin batshit crazy? I agree about the ones after him, though.

He had the Politburo as a sanity check. North Korea doesn't appear to have
a similar political infrastructure.

/BAH
Re: Predicting the future in five years as seen from 1983 [message #360070 is a reply to message #360068] Fri, 05 January 2018 09:32 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Jorgen Grahn is currently offline  Jorgen Grahn
Messages: 598
Registered: March 2012
Karma: 0
Senior Member
On Fri, 2018-01-05, jmfbahciv wrote:
> Jorgen Grahn wrote:
>> On Thu, 2018-01-04, J Clarke wrote:
>>> On Thu, 04 Jan 2018 16:55:50 -0500, Andreas Kohlbach
>>> <ank@spamfence.net> wrote:
>> ...
>>>> But let me mention one more part of this article.
>>>>
>>>> | The TI-59 programmable scientific calculator is considerably more
>>>> | powerful than ILIAC was. [in 1959]
>>>> |
>>>> | That development took 30 years, but technology always
>>>> | accelerates. Barring nuclear war, there should be nearly as much change
>>>> | in computers in the next 10 years as there was in the preceding 30.
>>>>
>>>> I like the "Barring nuclear war...". *g* Today nobody takes nuclear war
>>>> into consideration. Remember, this was written 1983, and the Cold War was
>>>> quite hot.
>>>
>>> Perhaps though people should be taking nuclear war into consideration.
>>> The various Soviet dictators were not particularly nice people but
>>> they were neither terminally stupid nor batshit crazy.
>>
>> Wasn't Stalin batshit crazy? I agree about the ones after him, though.
>
> He had the Politburo as a sanity check. North Korea doesn't appear to have
> a similar political infrastructure.

I asked partly because I seem to recall Stalin being described as /not/
having sanity checks; that everyone was deadly afraid of him.

On the other hand, perhaps Stalin didn't have easy access to nukes to
use at a whim ...

/Jorgen

--
// Jorgen Grahn <grahn@ Oo o. . .
\X/ snipabacken.se> O o .
Re: Predicting the future in five years as seen from 1983 [message #360075 is a reply to message #360059] Fri, 05 January 2018 11:39 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Peter Flass is currently offline  Peter Flass
Messages: 7976
Registered: December 2011
Karma: 0
Senior Member
Jorgen Grahn <grahn+nntp@snipabacken.se> wrote:
> On Thu, 2018-01-04, J Clarke wrote:
>> On Thu, 04 Jan 2018 16:55:50 -0500, Andreas Kohlbach
>> <ank@spamfence.net> wrote:
> ...
>>> But let me mention one more part of this article.
>>>
>>> | The TI-59 programmable scientific calculator is considerably more
>>> | powerful than ILIAC was. [in 1959]
>>> |
>>> | That development took 30 years, but technology always
>>> | accelerates. Barring nuclear war, there should be nearly as much change
>>> | in computers in the next 10 years as there was in the preceding 30.
>>>
>>> I like the "Barring nuclear war...". *g* Today nobody takes nuclear war
>>> into consideration. Remember, this was written 1983, and the Cold War was
>>> quite hot.
>>
>> Perhaps though people should be taking nuclear war into consideration.
>> The various Soviet dictators were not particularly nice people but
>> they were neither terminally stupid nor batshit crazy.
>
> Wasn't Stalin batshit crazy? I agree about the ones after him, though.

Very paranoid (probably with good reason), but not crazy. We can only hope
Kimmie is the same.

>
>> I am not sure the same can be said for Kim Jong Un (or Donald Trump
>> for that matter).
>
> /Jorgen
>

j

--
Pete
Re: Predicting the future in five years as seen from 1983 [message #360085 is a reply to message #360036] Fri, 05 January 2018 12:20 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Anonymous
Karma:
Originally posted by: JimP

On Thu, 04 Jan 2018 16:55:50 -0500, Andreas Kohlbach
<ank@spamfence.net> wrote:

> I am reading the BYTE magazine 9/1983 which is mainly about
> portables. Yes, bricks like Kaypros, but also lean ones Epson HX-20 or
> Tandy M1000.
>
> Later in that issue Jerry Pournelle predicts 5 years into the future.
>
> He got a lot right, like assumed RAM size of computers then (1-10 MB).
> Also that most likely only some ascendance of the 8086 (he already
> mentioning the 286) and Motorola 68000 will be dominant, with the Z8000
> being a failure. Predicts the internet in 2000 (a computer giving answers
> to any question which is "computable"). Says the 8" and 5 1/4" will
> die. But is wrong that they will be replaced by some kind of hard
> disk. He didn't see the 3 1/2" floppy coming.
>
> To not spoil it more, you can get the full issue at
> <https://archive.org/details/byte-magazine-1983-09>. If you are not
> interested in the full issue and ask by email I can make a PDF extract
> for you of just this part and return by email. Email me then.
>
> But let me mention one more part of this article.
>
> | The TI-59 programmable scientific calculator is considerably more
> | powerful than ILIAC was. [in 1959]
> |
> | That development took 30 years, but technology always
> | accelerates. Barring nuclear war, there should be nearly as much change
> | in computers in the next 10 years as there was in the preceding 30.
>
> I like the "Barring nuclear war...". *g* Today nobody takes nuclear war
> into consideration. Remember, this was written 1983, and the Cold War was
> quite hot.

There are you tube videos where people in the 1920s, 1930s, and 1940s
predict what will happen in the future... of in sequence, the 1950s,
1960s, and 1980s. I saw little semblance of what actually happened.
Re: Predicting the future in five years as seen from 1983 [message #360086 is a reply to message #360085] Fri, 05 January 2018 13:30 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Peter Flass is currently offline  Peter Flass
Messages: 7976
Registered: December 2011
Karma: 0
Senior Member
JimP <solosam90@gmail.com> wrote:
> On Thu, 04 Jan 2018 16:55:50 -0500, Andreas Kohlbach
> <ank@spamfence.net> wrote:
>
>> I am reading the BYTE magazine 9/1983 which is mainly about
>> portables. Yes, bricks like Kaypros, but also lean ones Epson HX-20 or
>> Tandy M1000.
>>
>> Later in that issue Jerry Pournelle predicts 5 years into the future.
>>
>> He got a lot right, like assumed RAM size of computers then (1-10 MB).
>> Also that most likely only some ascendance of the 8086 (he already
>> mentioning the 286) and Motorola 68000 will be dominant, with the Z8000
>> being a failure. Predicts the internet in 2000 (a computer giving answers
>> to any question which is "computable"). Says the 8" and 5 1/4" will
>> die. But is wrong that they will be replaced by some kind of hard
>> disk. He didn't see the 3 1/2" floppy coming.
>>
>> To not spoil it more, you can get the full issue at
>> <https://archive.org/details/byte-magazine-1983-09>. If you are not
>> interested in the full issue and ask by email I can make a PDF extract
>> for you of just this part and return by email. Email me then.
>>
>> But let me mention one more part of this article.
>>
>> | The TI-59 programmable scientific calculator is considerably more
>> | powerful than ILIAC was. [in 1959]
>> |
>> | That development took 30 years, but technology always
>> | accelerates. Barring nuclear war, there should be nearly as much change
>> | in computers in the next 10 years as there was in the preceding 30.
>>
>> I like the "Barring nuclear war...". *g* Today nobody takes nuclear war
>> into consideration. Remember, this was written 1983, and the Cold War was
>> quite hot.
>
> There are you tube videos where people in the 1920s, 1930s, and 1940s
> predict what will happen in the future... of in sequence, the 1950s,
> 1960s, and 1980s. I saw little semblance of what actually happened.
>

I still don't have my flying car! We do have computers you can talk to to
ask questions and get answers. All we need from Star Trek now are Warp
Drive and Transporters.

--
Pete
Re: Predicting the future in five years as seen from 1983 [message #360094 is a reply to message #360086] Fri, 05 January 2018 15:15 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Andreas Kohlbach is currently offline  Andreas Kohlbach
Messages: 1416
Registered: December 2011
Karma: 0
Senior Member
On Fri, 5 Jan 2018 11:30:58 -0700, Peter Flass wrote:
>
> JimP <solosam90@gmail.com> wrote:
>> On Thu, 04 Jan 2018 16:55:50 -0500, Andreas Kohlbach
>> <ank@spamfence.net> wrote:
>>
>>> I am reading the BYTE magazine 9/1983 which is mainly about
>>> portables. Yes, bricks like Kaypros, but also lean ones Epson HX-20 or
>>> Tandy M1000.
>>>
>>> Later in that issue Jerry Pournelle predicts 5 years into the future.
>>>
>>> He got a lot right, like assumed RAM size of computers then (1-10 MB).
>>> Also that most likely only some ascendance of the 8086 (he already
>>> mentioning the 286) and Motorola 68000 will be dominant, with the Z8000
>>> being a failure. Predicts the internet in 2000 (a computer giving answers
>>> to any question which is "computable"). Says the 8" and 5 1/4" will
>>> die. But is wrong that they will be replaced by some kind of hard
>>> disk. He didn't see the 3 1/2" floppy coming.
>>>
>>> To not spoil it more, you can get the full issue at
>>> <https://archive.org/details/byte-magazine-1983-09>. If you are not
>>> interested in the full issue and ask by email I can make a PDF extract
>>> for you of just this part and return by email. Email me then.
>>>
>>> But let me mention one more part of this article.
>>>
>>> | The TI-59 programmable scientific calculator is considerably more
>>> | powerful than ILIAC was. [in 1959]
>>> |
>>> | That development took 30 years, but technology always
>>> | accelerates. Barring nuclear war, there should be nearly as much change
>>> | in computers in the next 10 years as there was in the preceding 30.
>>>
>>> I like the "Barring nuclear war...". *g* Today nobody takes nuclear war
>>> into consideration. Remember, this was written 1983, and the Cold War was
>>> quite hot.
>>
>> There are you tube videos where people in the 1920s, 1930s, and 1940s
>> predict what will happen in the future... of in sequence, the 1950s,
>> 1960s, and 1980s. I saw little semblance of what actually happened.

Yes, I saw some too but the reach out too far into the future. While five
years is far easier to make a guess than 40 years.

Since no one seems to be interested to read the article. He also
predicted that Osborn will be one of the big hardware manufacturers in
1988, next to IBM. Didn't really happen. ;-)

> I still don't have my flying car! We do have computers you can talk to to
> ask questions and get answers. All we need from Star Trek now are Warp
> Drive and Transporters.

ACK. Back To The Future II from 1990 (set in 1985 though) promised us
hover boards in 2015. Now in 2018 still not common place. Although there
was a Canadian guy in 2015 flying over water with one he built himself, I
have not seen them working on land. Let alone being available at shelves
at Walmart.
--
Andreas
You know you are a redneck if
your school fight song was "dueling banjos".
Re: Predicting the future in five years as seen from 1983 [message #360095 is a reply to message #360068] Fri, 05 January 2018 15:16 Go to previous messageGo to next message
hancock4 is currently offline  hancock4
Messages: 6746
Registered: December 2011
Karma: 0
Senior Member
On Friday, January 5, 2018 at 8:12:40 AM UTC-5, jmfbahciv wrote:

>> Wasn't Stalin batshit crazy? I agree about the ones after him, though.
>
> He had the Politburo as a sanity check. North Korea doesn't appear to have
> a similar political infrastructure.

Stalin was in absolute total control of the country. The Politburo
merely rubber-stamped his directives.

In theory, China is a check on North Korea since N/K is very dependent
on China for its existence.
Re: Predicting the future in five years as seen from 1983 [message #360096 is a reply to message #360086] Fri, 05 January 2018 15:20 Go to previous messageGo to next message
hancock4 is currently offline  hancock4
Messages: 6746
Registered: December 2011
Karma: 0
Senior Member
On Friday, January 5, 2018 at 1:31:00 PM UTC-5, Peter Flass wrote:

>> There are you tube videos where people in the 1920s, 1930s, and 1940s
>> predict what will happen in the future... of in sequence, the 1950s,
>> 1960s, and 1980s. I saw little semblance of what actually happened.
>>
>
> I still don't have my flying car! We do have computers you can talk to to
> ask questions and get answers. All we need from Star Trek now are Warp
> Drive and Transporters.

Yes, everything predicted flying cars.

Lots of companies employ computers to answer telephone questions,
but they don't work very well.

If one takes a close look at such things, it is amazing how much
science and technology has developed, yet it is also amazing
how much cannot be done.

Likewise with medicine. They know and can do an incredible amount
of stuff. Yet there are still great limits--plenty of people
still die at young ages.
Re: Predicting the future in five years as seen from 1983 [message #360099 is a reply to message #360086] Fri, 05 January 2018 15:55 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Anonymous
Karma:
Originally posted by: JimP

On Fri, 5 Jan 2018 11:30:58 -0700, Peter Flass <peter_flass@yahoo.com>
wrote:

> JimP <solosam90@gmail.com> wrote:
>> On Thu, 04 Jan 2018 16:55:50 -0500, Andreas Kohlbach
>> <ank@spamfence.net> wrote:
>>
>>> I am reading the BYTE magazine 9/1983 which is mainly about
>>> portables. Yes, bricks like Kaypros, but also lean ones Epson HX-20 or
>>> Tandy M1000.
>>>
>>> Later in that issue Jerry Pournelle predicts 5 years into the future.
>>>
>>> He got a lot right, like assumed RAM size of computers then (1-10 MB).
>>> Also that most likely only some ascendance of the 8086 (he already
>>> mentioning the 286) and Motorola 68000 will be dominant, with the Z8000
>>> being a failure. Predicts the internet in 2000 (a computer giving answers
>>> to any question which is "computable"). Says the 8" and 5 1/4" will
>>> die. But is wrong that they will be replaced by some kind of hard
>>> disk. He didn't see the 3 1/2" floppy coming.
>>>
>>> To not spoil it more, you can get the full issue at
>>> <https://archive.org/details/byte-magazine-1983-09>. If you are not
>>> interested in the full issue and ask by email I can make a PDF extract
>>> for you of just this part and return by email. Email me then.
>>>
>>> But let me mention one more part of this article.
>>>
>>> | The TI-59 programmable scientific calculator is considerably more
>>> | powerful than ILIAC was. [in 1959]
>>> |
>>> | That development took 30 years, but technology always
>>> | accelerates. Barring nuclear war, there should be nearly as much change
>>> | in computers in the next 10 years as there was in the preceding 30.
>>>
>>> I like the "Barring nuclear war...". *g* Today nobody takes nuclear war
>>> into consideration. Remember, this was written 1983, and the Cold War was
>>> quite hot.
>>
>> There are you tube videos where people in the 1920s, 1930s, and 1940s
>> predict what will happen in the future... of in sequence, the 1950s,
>> 1960s, and 1980s. I saw little semblance of what actually happened.
>>
>
> I still don't have my flying car! We do have computers you can talk to to
> ask questions and get answers. All we need from Star Trek now are Warp
> Drive and Transporters.

Most of the videos talked about the great future of passenger rail,
and clothing styles. Those were way off.

I do see the occasional mention of flying cars. Most are still in the
alpha stage, and are projected to cost $25,000.00 each.
Re: Predicting the future in five years as seen from 1983 [message #360100 is a reply to message #360096] Fri, 05 January 2018 15:57 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Andreas Kohlbach is currently offline  Andreas Kohlbach
Messages: 1416
Registered: December 2011
Karma: 0
Senior Member
On Fri, 5 Jan 2018 12:20:17 -0800 (PST), hancock4@bbs.cpcn.com wrote:
>
> Lots of companies employ computers to answer telephone questions,
> but they don't work very well.

Apropos phone of the future. I think I saw a clip from 1962 where they
depicted a phone from the 90s. You could had it automatically dial
numbers. Was easy - you insert a small punched code card into a slot... :-)
--
Andreas
You know you are a redneck if
your school fight song was "dueling banjos".
Re: Predicting the future in five years as seen from 1983 [message #360101 is a reply to message #360094] Fri, 05 January 2018 15:57 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Anonymous
Karma:
Originally posted by: JimP

On Fri, 05 Jan 2018 15:15:55 -0500, Andreas Kohlbach
<ank@spamfence.net> wrote:

> On Fri, 5 Jan 2018 11:30:58 -0700, Peter Flass wrote:
>>
>> JimP <solosam90@gmail.com> wrote:
>>> On Thu, 04 Jan 2018 16:55:50 -0500, Andreas Kohlbach
>>> <ank@spamfence.net> wrote:
>>>
>>>> I am reading the BYTE magazine 9/1983 which is mainly about
>>>> portables. Yes, bricks like Kaypros, but also lean ones Epson HX-20 or
>>>> Tandy M1000.
>>>>
>>>> Later in that issue Jerry Pournelle predicts 5 years into the future.
>>>>
>>>> He got a lot right, like assumed RAM size of computers then (1-10 MB).
>>>> Also that most likely only some ascendance of the 8086 (he already
>>>> mentioning the 286) and Motorola 68000 will be dominant, with the Z8000
>>>> being a failure. Predicts the internet in 2000 (a computer giving answers
>>>> to any question which is "computable"). Says the 8" and 5 1/4" will
>>>> die. But is wrong that they will be replaced by some kind of hard
>>>> disk. He didn't see the 3 1/2" floppy coming.
>>>>
>>>> To not spoil it more, you can get the full issue at
>>>> <https://archive.org/details/byte-magazine-1983-09>. If you are not
>>>> interested in the full issue and ask by email I can make a PDF extract
>>>> for you of just this part and return by email. Email me then.
>>>>
>>>> But let me mention one more part of this article.
>>>>
>>>> | The TI-59 programmable scientific calculator is considerably more
>>>> | powerful than ILIAC was. [in 1959]
>>>> |
>>>> | That development took 30 years, but technology always
>>>> | accelerates. Barring nuclear war, there should be nearly as much change
>>>> | in computers in the next 10 years as there was in the preceding 30.
>>>>
>>>> I like the "Barring nuclear war...". *g* Today nobody takes nuclear war
>>>> into consideration. Remember, this was written 1983, and the Cold War was
>>>> quite hot.
>>>
>>> There are you tube videos where people in the 1920s, 1930s, and 1940s
>>> predict what will happen in the future... of in sequence, the 1950s,
>>> 1960s, and 1980s. I saw little semblance of what actually happened.
>
> Yes, I saw some too but the reach out too far into the future. While five
> years is far easier to make a guess than 40 years.
>
> Since no one seems to be interested to read the article. He also
> predicted that Osborn will be one of the big hardware manufacturers in
> 1988, next to IBM. Didn't really happen. ;-)
>
>> I still don't have my flying car! We do have computers you can talk to to
>> ask questions and get answers. All we need from Star Trek now are Warp
>> Drive and Transporters.
>
> ACK. Back To The Future II from 1990 (set in 1985 though) promised us
> hover boards in 2015. Now in 2018 still not common place. Although there
> was a Canadian guy in 2015 flying over water with one he built himself, I
> have not seen them working on land. Let alone being available at shelves
> at Walmart.

And the home computer one I saw somewhere... or the giant home robot
to cook and clean. The home computer was about the size of the Vax
11/730 we had at university.
Re: Predicting the future in five years as seen from 1983 [message #360102 is a reply to message #360086] Fri, 05 January 2018 15:47 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Ahem A Rivet's Shot is currently offline  Ahem A Rivet's Shot
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On Fri, 5 Jan 2018 11:30:58 -0700
Peter Flass <peter_flass@yahoo.com> wrote:

> I still don't have my flying car!

But autonomous flying taxis are being tested.

> We do have computers you can talk to to
> ask questions and get answers. All we need from Star Trek now are Warp
> Drive and Transporters.

I'd swap both of those for replicators.

--
Steve O'Hara-Smith | Directable Mirror Arrays
C:\>WIN | A better way to focus the sun
The computer obeys and wins. | licences available see
You lose and Bill collects. | http://www.sohara.org/
Re: Predicting the future in five years as seen from 1983 [message #360103 is a reply to message #360096] Fri, 05 January 2018 15:49 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Ahem A Rivet's Shot is currently offline  Ahem A Rivet's Shot
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On Fri, 5 Jan 2018 12:20:17 -0800 (PST)
hancock4@bbs.cpcn.com wrote:

> On Friday, January 5, 2018 at 1:31:00 PM UTC-5, Peter Flass wrote:
>
>>> There are you tube videos where people in the 1920s, 1930s, and 1940s
>>> predict what will happen in the future... of in sequence, the 1950s,
>>> 1960s, and 1980s. I saw little semblance of what actually happened.
>>>
>>
>> I still don't have my flying car! We do have computers you can talk to
>> to ask questions and get answers. All we need from Star Trek now are
>> Warp Drive and Transporters.
>
> Yes, everything predicted flying cars.

A good many varieties have been made going back to the 1930s, they
all suffer the same fundamental problem - you need a pilots license.

--
Steve O'Hara-Smith | Directable Mirror Arrays
C:\>WIN | A better way to focus the sun
The computer obeys and wins. | licences available see
You lose and Bill collects. | http://www.sohara.org/
Re: Predicting the future in five years as seen from 1983 [message #360110 is a reply to message #360100] Fri, 05 January 2018 16:09 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Quadibloc is currently offline  Quadibloc
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On Friday, January 5, 2018 at 1:57:17 PM UTC-7, Andreas Kohlbach wrote:

> Apropos phone of the future. I think I saw a clip from 1962 where they
> depicted a phone from the 90s. You could had it automatically dial
> numbers. Was easy - you insert a small punched code card into a slot... :-)

They actually *built* that phone, although it was for office use, not home
use.

They didn't expect people to use a keypunch machine, though. The cards had
perforated edges to the holes where you pushed the center out.

John Savard
Re: Predicting the future in five years as seen from 1983 [message #360112 is a reply to message #360110] Fri, 05 January 2018 17:07 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Quadibloc is currently offline  Quadibloc
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The first one was the Model 661, and it was first offered in 1962 (surprise).
Re: Predicting the future in five years as seen from 1983 [message #360114 is a reply to message #360095] Fri, 05 January 2018 17:16 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Anonymous
Karma:
Originally posted by: J. Clarke

On Fri, 5 Jan 2018 12:16:57 -0800 (PST), hancock4@bbs.cpcn.com wrote:

> On Friday, January 5, 2018 at 8:12:40 AM UTC-5, jmfbahciv wrote:
>
>>> Wasn't Stalin batshit crazy? I agree about the ones after him, though.
>>
>> He had the Politburo as a sanity check. North Korea doesn't appear to have
>> a similar political infrastructure.
>
> Stalin was in absolute total control of the country. The Politburo
> merely rubber-stamped his directives.
>
> In theory, China is a check on North Korea since N/K is very dependent
> on China for its existence.

So how's that working out?
Re: Predicting the future in five years as seen from 1983 [message #360115 is a reply to message #360086] Fri, 05 January 2018 17:25 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Anonymous
Karma:
Originally posted by: J. Clarke

On Fri, 5 Jan 2018 11:30:58 -0700, Peter Flass <peter_flass@yahoo.com>
wrote:

> JimP <solosam90@gmail.com> wrote:
>> On Thu, 04 Jan 2018 16:55:50 -0500, Andreas Kohlbach
>> <ank@spamfence.net> wrote:
>>
>>> I am reading the BYTE magazine 9/1983 which is mainly about
>>> portables. Yes, bricks like Kaypros, but also lean ones Epson HX-20 or
>>> Tandy M1000.
>>>
>>> Later in that issue Jerry Pournelle predicts 5 years into the future.
>>>
>>> He got a lot right, like assumed RAM size of computers then (1-10 MB).
>>> Also that most likely only some ascendance of the 8086 (he already
>>> mentioning the 286) and Motorola 68000 will be dominant, with the Z8000
>>> being a failure. Predicts the internet in 2000 (a computer giving answers
>>> to any question which is "computable"). Says the 8" and 5 1/4" will
>>> die. But is wrong that they will be replaced by some kind of hard
>>> disk. He didn't see the 3 1/2" floppy coming.
>>>
>>> To not spoil it more, you can get the full issue at
>>> <https://archive.org/details/byte-magazine-1983-09>. If you are not
>>> interested in the full issue and ask by email I can make a PDF extract
>>> for you of just this part and return by email. Email me then.
>>>
>>> But let me mention one more part of this article.
>>>
>>> | The TI-59 programmable scientific calculator is considerably more
>>> | powerful than ILIAC was. [in 1959]
>>> |
>>> | That development took 30 years, but technology always
>>> | accelerates. Barring nuclear war, there should be nearly as much change
>>> | in computers in the next 10 years as there was in the preceding 30.
>>>
>>> I like the "Barring nuclear war...". *g* Today nobody takes nuclear war
>>> into consideration. Remember, this was written 1983, and the Cold War was
>>> quite hot.
>>
>> There are you tube videos where people in the 1920s, 1930s, and 1940s
>> predict what will happen in the future... of in sequence, the 1950s,
>> 1960s, and 1980s. I saw little semblance of what actually happened.
>>
>
> I still don't have my flying car! We do have computers you can talk to to
> ask questions and get answers. All we need from Star Trek now are Warp
> Drive and Transporters.

Funny thing, but the flying car actually seems to be coming. Lots of
working prototypes all of a sudden and the weird thing is that they're
electric.
Re: Predicting the future in five years as seen from 1983 [message #360116 is a reply to message #360094] Fri, 05 January 2018 17:26 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Anonymous
Karma:
Originally posted by: J. Clarke

On Fri, 05 Jan 2018 15:15:55 -0500, Andreas Kohlbach
<ank@spamfence.net> wrote:

> On Fri, 5 Jan 2018 11:30:58 -0700, Peter Flass wrote:
>>
>> JimP <solosam90@gmail.com> wrote:
>>> On Thu, 04 Jan 2018 16:55:50 -0500, Andreas Kohlbach
>>> <ank@spamfence.net> wrote:
>>>
>>>> I am reading the BYTE magazine 9/1983 which is mainly about
>>>> portables. Yes, bricks like Kaypros, but also lean ones Epson HX-20 or
>>>> Tandy M1000.
>>>>
>>>> Later in that issue Jerry Pournelle predicts 5 years into the future.
>>>>
>>>> He got a lot right, like assumed RAM size of computers then (1-10 MB).
>>>> Also that most likely only some ascendance of the 8086 (he already
>>>> mentioning the 286) and Motorola 68000 will be dominant, with the Z8000
>>>> being a failure. Predicts the internet in 2000 (a computer giving answers
>>>> to any question which is "computable"). Says the 8" and 5 1/4" will
>>>> die. But is wrong that they will be replaced by some kind of hard
>>>> disk. He didn't see the 3 1/2" floppy coming.
>>>>
>>>> To not spoil it more, you can get the full issue at
>>>> <https://archive.org/details/byte-magazine-1983-09>. If you are not
>>>> interested in the full issue and ask by email I can make a PDF extract
>>>> for you of just this part and return by email. Email me then.
>>>>
>>>> But let me mention one more part of this article.
>>>>
>>>> | The TI-59 programmable scientific calculator is considerably more
>>>> | powerful than ILIAC was. [in 1959]
>>>> |
>>>> | That development took 30 years, but technology always
>>>> | accelerates. Barring nuclear war, there should be nearly as much change
>>>> | in computers in the next 10 years as there was in the preceding 30.
>>>>
>>>> I like the "Barring nuclear war...". *g* Today nobody takes nuclear war
>>>> into consideration. Remember, this was written 1983, and the Cold War was
>>>> quite hot.
>>>
>>> There are you tube videos where people in the 1920s, 1930s, and 1940s
>>> predict what will happen in the future... of in sequence, the 1950s,
>>> 1960s, and 1980s. I saw little semblance of what actually happened.
>
> Yes, I saw some too but the reach out too far into the future. While five
> years is far easier to make a guess than 40 years.
>
> Since no one seems to be interested to read the article. He also
> predicted that Osborn will be one of the big hardware manufacturers in
> 1988, next to IBM. Didn't really happen. ;-)
>
>> I still don't have my flying car! We do have computers you can talk to to
>> ask questions and get answers. All we need from Star Trek now are Warp
>> Drive and Transporters.
>
> ACK. Back To The Future II from 1990 (set in 1985 though) promised us
> hover boards in 2015. Now in 2018 still not common place. Although there
> was a Canadian guy in 2015 flying over water with one he built himself, I
> have not seen them working on land. Let alone being available at shelves
> at Walmart.

The Canadian guy's worked fine over land, he just was smart enough to
figure out that he was more likely to get out of the crash without
breaking any parts of himself if he crashed over water.
Re: Predicting the future in five years as seen from 1983 [message #360117 is a reply to message #360096] Fri, 05 January 2018 17:28 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Anonymous
Karma:
Originally posted by: J. Clarke

On Fri, 5 Jan 2018 12:20:17 -0800 (PST), hancock4@bbs.cpcn.com wrote:

> On Friday, January 5, 2018 at 1:31:00 PM UTC-5, Peter Flass wrote:
>
>>> There are you tube videos where people in the 1920s, 1930s, and 1940s
>>> predict what will happen in the future... of in sequence, the 1950s,
>>> 1960s, and 1980s. I saw little semblance of what actually happened.
>>>
>>
>> I still don't have my flying car! We do have computers you can talk to to
>> ask questions and get answers. All we need from Star Trek now are Warp
>> Drive and Transporters.
>
> Yes, everything predicted flying cars.
>
> Lots of companies employ computers to answer telephone questions,
> but they don't work very well.

Still, "hey Cortana" saves me a good bit of typing and searching, and
"Hey, Cortana, set an alarm for 10 minutes" is downright convenient.
>
> If one takes a close look at such things, it is amazing how much
> science and technology has developed, yet it is also amazing
> how much cannot be done.
>
> Likewise with medicine. They know and can do an incredible amount
> of stuff. Yet there are still great limits--plenty of people
> still die at young ages.
>
Re: Predicting the future in five years as seen from 1983 [message #360118 is a reply to message #360036] Fri, 05 January 2018 17:29 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Anonymous
Karma:
Originally posted by: Bob Eager

On Fri, 05 Jan 2018 15:09:30 -0500, Andreas Kohlbach wrote:

> On Fri, 05 Jan 2018 05:59:44 -0500, J. Clarke wrote:
>>
>> On 5 Jan 2018 09:28:43 GMT, Jorgen Grahn <grahn+nntp@snipabacken.se>
>> wrote:
>>
>>> On Thu, 2018-01-04, J Clarke wrote:
>>>>
>>>> Perhaps though people should be taking nuclear war into
>>>> consideration.
>>>> The various Soviet dictators were not particularly nice people but
>>>> they were neither terminally stupid nor batshit crazy.
>>>
>>> Wasn't Stalin batshit crazy? I agree about the ones after him, though.
>>
>> Crazy, yes, but not batshit. He was sane enough to understand that
>> hydrogen bombs raining down on his head was a Bad Thing. I'm not sure
>> Kim Jong Un recognizes that.
>
> I agree. Un is a spoiled kid playing with matches. And the parents
> (China) let him.

Bit like Trump, then.



--
Using UNIX since v6 (1975)...

Use the BIG mirror service in the UK:
http://www.mirrorservice.org
Re: Predicting the future in five years as seen from 1983 [message #360119 is a reply to message #360102] Fri, 05 January 2018 17:43 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Peter Flass is currently offline  Peter Flass
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Ahem A Rivet's Shot <steveo@eircom.net> wrote:
> On Fri, 5 Jan 2018 11:30:58 -0700
> Peter Flass <peter_flass@yahoo.com> wrote:
>
>> I still don't have my flying car!
>
> But autonomous flying taxis are being tested.
>
>> We do have computers you can talk to to
>> ask questions and get answers. All we need from Star Trek now are Warp
>> Drive and Transporters.
>
> I'd swap both of those for replicators.
>

3-D printers. I don't think they ever "explained" how replicators worked,
so 3-D printers are a good analog.

--
Pete
Re: Predicting the future in five years as seen from 1983 [message #360120 is a reply to message #360103] Fri, 05 January 2018 17:43 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Peter Flass is currently offline  Peter Flass
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Senior Member
Ahem A Rivet's Shot <steveo@eircom.net> wrote:
> On Fri, 5 Jan 2018 12:20:17 -0800 (PST)
> hancock4@bbs.cpcn.com wrote:
>
>> On Friday, January 5, 2018 at 1:31:00 PM UTC-5, Peter Flass wrote:
>>
>>>> There are you tube videos where people in the 1920s, 1930s, and 1940s
>>>> predict what will happen in the future... of in sequence, the 1950s,
>>>> 1960s, and 1980s. I saw little semblance of what actually happened.
>>>>
>>>
>>> I still don't have my flying car! We do have computers you can talk to
>>> to ask questions and get answers. All we need from Star Trek now are
>>> Warp Drive and Transporters.
>>
>> Yes, everything predicted flying cars.
>
> A good many varieties have been made going back to the 1930s, they
> all suffer the same fundamental problem - you need a pilots license.
>

It seems like self-piloted planes would be simpler to program than
self-:driving cars. Maybe we'll get there yet.

--
Pete
Re: Predicting the future in five years as seen from 1983 [message #360121 is a reply to message #360114] Fri, 05 January 2018 17:43 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Peter Flass is currently offline  Peter Flass
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J. Clarke <jclarke.873638@gmail.com> wrote:
> On Fri, 5 Jan 2018 12:16:57 -0800 (PST), hancock4@bbs.cpcn.com wrote:
>
>> On Friday, January 5, 2018 at 8:12:40 AM UTC-5, jmfbahciv wrote:
>>
>>>> Wasn't Stalin batshit crazy? I agree about the ones after him, though.
>>>
>>> He had the Politburo as a sanity check. North Korea doesn't appear to have
>>> a similar political infrastructure.
>>
>> Stalin was in absolute total control of the country. The Politburo
>> merely rubber-stamped his directives.
>>
>> In theory, China is a check on North Korea since N/K is very dependent
>> on China for its existence.
>
> So how's that working out?
>

The problem is that China has few options too. If they push hard enough to
collapse the NK regime they might get lots of refugees. They're afraid that
the ROK and the US might take over and they'd have an even less compliant
government there.

My thought, and I have begun seeing this suggested elsewhere is that we
agree not to take over NK and attempt to unify the two Koreas as long as
China helps us get the nukes out and they get to put in a government
friendly to them but non-aggressive.

--
Pete
Re: Predicting the future in five years as seen from 1983 [message #360126 is a reply to message #360103] Fri, 05 January 2018 18:12 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Gene Wirchenko is currently offline  Gene Wirchenko
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Senior Member
On Fri, 5 Jan 2018 20:49:06 +0000, Ahem A Rivet's Shot
<steveo@eircom.net> wrote:

> On Fri, 5 Jan 2018 12:20:17 -0800 (PST)
> hancock4@bbs.cpcn.com wrote:
>
>> On Friday, January 5, 2018 at 1:31:00 PM UTC-5, Peter Flass wrote:
>>
>>>> There are you tube videos where people in the 1920s, 1930s, and 1940s
>>>> predict what will happen in the future... of in sequence, the 1950s,
>>>> 1960s, and 1980s. I saw little semblance of what actually happened.
>>>>
>>>
>>> I still don't have my flying car! We do have computers you can talk to
>>> to ask questions and get answers. All we need from Star Trek now are
>>> Warp Drive and Transporters.
>>
>> Yes, everything predicted flying cars.
>
> A good many varieties have been made going back to the 1930s, they
> all suffer the same fundamental problem - you need a pilots license.

That's not a bug. That's a feature!

Sincerely,

Gene Wirchenko
Re: Predicting the future in five years as seen from 1983 [message #360134 is a reply to message #360086] Fri, 05 January 2018 20:49 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Andrew Swallow is currently offline  Andrew Swallow
Messages: 1705
Registered: January 2012
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Senior Member
On 05/01/2018 18:30, Peter Flass wrote:
> JimP <solosam90@gmail.com> wrote:
>> On Thu, 04 Jan 2018 16:55:50 -0500, Andreas Kohlbach
{snip}

>> There are you tube videos where people in the 1920s, 1930s, and 1940s
>> predict what will happen in the future... of in sequence, the 1950s,
>> 1960s, and 1980s. I saw little semblance of what actually happened.
>>
>
> I still don't have my flying car! We do have computers you can talk to to
> ask questions and get answers. All we need from Star Trek now are Warp
> Drive and Transporters.
>

Flying cars exist but the wings are wider than most roads so they do not
sell well.
Re: Predicting the future in five years as seen from 1983 [message #360136 is a reply to message #360119] Fri, 05 January 2018 20:24 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Joy Beeson is currently offline  Joy Beeson
Messages: 156
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Senior Member
On Fri, 5 Jan 2018 15:43:34 -0700, Peter Flass <peter_flass@yahoo.com>
wrote:

> 3-D printers. I don't think they ever "explained" how replicators worked,
> so 3-D printers are a good analog.

Replicators are to transporters as printers are to fax machines.

--
Joy Beeson
joy beeson at comcast dot net
http://wlweather.net/PAGEJOY/
Re: Predicting the future in five years as seen from 1983 [message #360137 is a reply to message #360119] Fri, 05 January 2018 21:30 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Charlie Gibbs is currently offline  Charlie Gibbs
Messages: 5052
Registered: January 2012
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Senior Member
On 2018-01-05, Peter Flass <peter_flass@yahoo.com> wrote:

> Ahem A Rivet's Shot <steveo@eircom.net> wrote:
>
>> On Fri, 5 Jan 2018 11:30:58 -0700
>> Peter Flass <peter_flass@yahoo.com> wrote:
>>
>>> I still don't have my flying car!
>>
>> But autonomous flying taxis are being tested.
>>
>>> We do have computers you can talk to to
>>> ask questions and get answers. All we need from Star Trek now are Warp
>>> Drive and Transporters.
>>
>> I'd swap both of those for replicators.
>>
>
> 3-D printers. I don't think they ever "explained" how replicators worked,
> so 3-D printers are a good analog.

What happens if you ask a replicator to replicate itself?
Another market implodes, after the inevitable replay of
the copy protection wars.

(We re-watched the original Blade Runner the other night. We found it
as incoherent as the the first time we watched it. Gotta dig up the
novel and see what Philip K. Dick really had in mind...)

--
/~\ cgibbs@kltpzyxm.invalid (Charlie Gibbs)
\ / I'm really at ac.dekanfrus if you read it the right way.
X Top-posted messages will probably be ignored. See RFC1855.
/ \ HTML will DEFINITELY be ignored. Join the ASCII ribbon campaign!
Re: Predicting the future in five years as seen from 1983 [message #360138 is a reply to message #360099] Fri, 05 January 2018 21:30 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Charlie Gibbs is currently offline  Charlie Gibbs
Messages: 5052
Registered: January 2012
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Senior Member
On 2018-01-05, JimP <solosam90@gmail.com> wrote:

> On Fri, 5 Jan 2018 11:30:58 -0700, Peter Flass <peter_flass@yahoo.com>
> wrote:
>
>> I still don't have my flying car! We do have computers you can talk to
>> to ask questions and get answers.

Yes, but they're more like Orwell's telescreens.

>> All we need from Star Trek now are Warp Drive and Transporters.
>
> Most of the videos talked about the great future of passenger rail,
> and clothing styles. Those were way off.
>
> I do see the occasional mention of flying cars. Most are still in the
> alpha stage, and are projected to cost $25,000.00 each.

That cheap? Try pricing a new Cessna 172, the Chevy Nova of the skies.
Don't forget the cost of testing, certification, avionics that actually
work as opposed to the shiny toys in a car dashboard...

And I'd hate to think of what it would be like if the air was full
of people who behave the way the average motorist does. If you
thought drones were a problem (or even if you didn't), you ain't
seen nothing yet.

--
/~\ cgibbs@kltpzyxm.invalid (Charlie Gibbs)
\ / I'm really at ac.dekanfrus if you read it the right way.
X Top-posted messages will probably be ignored. See RFC1855.
/ \ HTML will DEFINITELY be ignored. Join the ASCII ribbon campaign!
Re: Predicting the future in five years as seen from 1983 [message #360139 is a reply to message #360138] Fri, 05 January 2018 21:45 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Anonymous
Karma:
Originally posted by: J. Clarke

On 6 Jan 2018 02:30:32 GMT, Charlie Gibbs <cgibbs@kltpzyxm.invalid>
wrote:

> On 2018-01-05, JimP <solosam90@gmail.com> wrote:
>
>> On Fri, 5 Jan 2018 11:30:58 -0700, Peter Flass <peter_flass@yahoo.com>
>> wrote:
>>
>>> I still don't have my flying car! We do have computers you can talk to
>>> to ask questions and get answers.
>
> Yes, but they're more like Orwell's telescreens.
>
>>> All we need from Star Trek now are Warp Drive and Transporters.
>>
>> Most of the videos talked about the great future of passenger rail,
>> and clothing styles. Those were way off.
>>
>> I do see the occasional mention of flying cars. Most are still in the
>> alpha stage, and are projected to cost $25,000.00 each.
>
> That cheap? Try pricing a new Cessna 172, the Chevy Nova of the skies.
> Don't forget the cost of testing, certification, avionics that actually
> work as opposed to the shiny toys in a car dashboard...
>
> And I'd hate to think of what it would be like if the air was full
> of people who behave the way the average motorist does. If you
> thought drones were a problem (or even if you didn't), you ain't
> seen nothing yet.

They're sizing them to be ultralights, and "the average motorist" will
just tell it "take me to work" or whatever--the only people who will
have actual controls will be developers, test engineers, and
enthusiasts/criminals who have the skills and interest to hack the
things.
Re: Predicting the future in five years as seen from 1983 [message #360140 is a reply to message #360134] Fri, 05 January 2018 21:46 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Anonymous
Karma:
Originally posted by: J. Clarke

On Sat, 6 Jan 2018 01:49:41 +0000, Andrew Swallow
<am.swallow@btinternet.com> wrote:

> On 05/01/2018 18:30, Peter Flass wrote:
>> JimP <solosam90@gmail.com> wrote:
>>> On Thu, 04 Jan 2018 16:55:50 -0500, Andreas Kohlbach
> {snip}
>
>>> There are you tube videos where people in the 1920s, 1930s, and 1940s
>>> predict what will happen in the future... of in sequence, the 1950s,
>>> 1960s, and 1980s. I saw little semblance of what actually happened.
>>>
>>
>> I still don't have my flying car! We do have computers you can talk to to
>> ask questions and get answers. All we need from Star Trek now are Warp
>> Drive and Transporters.
>>
>
> Flying cars exist but the wings are wider than most roads so they do not
> sell well.

There are some in test that fit into an ordinary parking space and can
take off from that parking space.
Re: Predicting the future in five years as seen from 1983 [message #360148 is a reply to message #360137] Fri, 05 January 2018 22:15 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Anonymous
Karma:
Originally posted by: JimP

On 6 Jan 2018 02:30:32 GMT, Charlie Gibbs <cgibbs@kltpzyxm.invalid>
wrote:

> On 2018-01-05, Peter Flass <peter_flass@yahoo.com> wrote:
>
>> Ahem A Rivet's Shot <steveo@eircom.net> wrote:
>>
>>> On Fri, 5 Jan 2018 11:30:58 -0700
>>> Peter Flass <peter_flass@yahoo.com> wrote:
>>>
>>>> I still don't have my flying car!
>>>
>>> But autonomous flying taxis are being tested.
>>>
>>>> We do have computers you can talk to to
>>>> ask questions and get answers. All we need from Star Trek now are Warp
>>>> Drive and Transporters.
>>>
>>> I'd swap both of those for replicators.
>>>
>>
>> 3-D printers. I don't think they ever "explained" how replicators worked,
>> so 3-D printers are a good analog.
>
> What happens if you ask a replicator to replicate itself?
> Another market implodes, after the inevitable replay of
> the copy protection wars.
>
> (We re-watched the original Blade Runner the other night. We found it
> as incoherent as the the first time we watched it. Gotta dig up the
> novel and see what Philip K. Dick really had in mind...)

My feeling is the movie resulted from the scriptwriters reading his
book... Philip K. Dick's books did go off on tangents... :-)
Re: Predicting the future in five years as seen from 1983 [message #360149 is a reply to message #360036] Fri, 05 January 2018 23:59 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Anonymous
Karma:
Originally posted by: J. Clarke

On Fri, 5 Jan 2018 22:04:51 -0600, Dave Garland
<dave.garland@wizinfo.com> wrote:

> On 1/5/2018 4:59 AM, J. Clarke wrote:
>> On 5 Jan 2018 09:28:43 GMT, Jorgen Grahn <grahn+nntp@snipabacken.se>
>> wrote:
>
>>>
>>> Wasn't Stalin batshit crazy? I agree about the ones after him, though.
>>
> Nah. Ruthless, yes. Paranoid, yes, though a certain degree of paranoia
> was understandable. I expect he remembered when the US (in conjunction
> with some other countries) invaded Russia, and Hitler's invasion
> didn't help matters any. And being a psychopath doesn't disqualify one
> from being a ruler, it's distressingly common.
>
>> Crazy, yes, but not batshit. He was sane enough to understand that
>> hydrogen bombs raining down on his head was a Bad Thing. I'm not sure
>> Kim Jong Un recognizes that.
>
> Stalin probably didn't spend a lot of time worrying about hydrogen
> bombs. He died in the spring of 1953, about 5 months after the first
> US hydrogen bomb test.
>
> I think Kim does understand that having them dropped on you is a bad
> thing. OTOH, having his own nuclear force is maybe the only way to
> guarantee that the US won't attack him. Saddam proved that bluffing
> wasn't a reliable defense.

Saddam proved that invading a US ally wasn't a reliable defense. I
suspect that if Kim invades South Korea he's going to find that his
nukes aren't either.

The worrisome thing is that once somebody has thrown nukes around and
the world doesn't end, it's likely to become more common. But perhaps
finally the Powers That Be will wake up and realize that there are
higher priorities than making nicey-nice with every tinpot dictator in
the universe.
Re: Predicting the future in five years as seen from 1983 [message #360152 is a reply to message #360149] Sat, 06 January 2018 01:00 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Anne &amp; Lynn Wheel is currently offline  Anne &amp; Lynn Wheel
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J. Clarke <jclarke.873638@gmail.com> writes:
> Saddam proved that invading a US ally wasn't a reliable defense.

CIA director Colby refuses to approve "Team B" analysis claiming huge
Russian military capability, justifying huge US military spending
increase.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Team_B

White House Chief of Staff Rumsfeld replaces Colby with somebody (Bush1)
that will aggree with "Team B" analysis. Rumsfeld then resigns to become
SECDEF (and is replaced by his assistent Cheney).

In the 80s, US support Iraq in the iran/iraq war
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran%E2%80%93Iraq_War
Bush1 is VP and Rumsfeld is involved in supporting Iraq., including
supplying WMDs
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_support_for_Iraq_ during_the_Iran%E2%80%93Iraq_war

In the early 90s, Bush1 is president and Cheney is SECDEF. Sat. photo
recon analyst told white house that saddam was marshalling forces to
invade Kuwait. White house said that saddam would do no such thing and
proceeded to discredit the analyst. Later the analyst informed the white
house that saddam was marshalling forces to invade Saudi Arabia, now the
white house has to choose between saddam and the Saudis.
http://www.amazon.com/Long-Strange-Journey-Intelligence-eboo k/dp/B004NNV5H2/

This century, Bush2 is president, Cheney is VP, Rumsfeld is SECDEF and
one of the "Team B" members is deputy SECDEF (and major architect of
Iraq policy). Originally justification was Iraq supported Al Qaeda and
invasion would only costs $50B ... then the justification was changed to
WMDs
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_Wolfowitz

Cousin of white house chief of staff Card ... was dealing with the
Iraqis at the UN and given evidence that WMDs (tracing back to US in the
Iran/Iraq war) had been decommissioned. the cousin shared it with Card,
Powell and others ... then is locked up in military hospital, book was
published in 2010 (before decommissioned WMDs were declassified)
http://www.amazon.com/EXTREME-PREJUDICE-Terrifying-Story-Pat riot-ebook/dp/B004HYHBK2/

NY Times series from 2014, the decommission WMDs (tracing back to US
from Iran/Iraq war), had been found early in the invasion, but the
information was classified for a decade
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2014/10/14/world/middleea st/us-casualties-of-iraq-chemical-weapons.html

the military-industrial-complex had wanted a war so badly that corporate
reps were telling former eastern block countries that if they voted for
IRAQ2 invasion in the UN, they would get membership in NATO and
(directed appropriation) USAID (can *ONLY* be used for purchase of
modern US arms). From the law of unintended consequences, the invaders
were told to bypass ammo dumps looking for WMDs, when they got around to
going back, over a million metric tons had evaporated.
http://www.amazon.com/Prophets-War-Lockheed-Military-Industr ial-ebook/dp/B0047T86BA

later large artilliary shells were showing up in IEDs and even taking
out Abrams M1 tanks
https://www.amazon.com/Battle-Baqubah-Killing-Our-Way-ebook/ dp/B007VBBS9I/

"The author takes the reader into the midst of the conflict in and
around Baqubah--Iraq's 'City of Death'--a campaign that lasted most of
2007. The author and his fellow Bonecrushers watched as the city went
from sectarian fighting amongst the Shiite and Sunnis, to an all-out
jihad against the undermanned and dangerously dispersed US forces
within Baqubah and the outlying areas."

.... snip ...

the cost for the two perpetual wars is so far over $5T (with the long
term benefits) ... 100 times the original claim. The $60B in pallets of
shrink-wrapped $100 bills air lifted to Iraq used for bribes and tribute
(or just simply disappeared) is more than the original estimate cost for
the invasion.

WMD posts
http://www.garlic.com/~lynn/submisc.html#wmds
"Team B" posts
http://www.garlic.com/~lynn/submisc.html#team.b
military-industrial(-congressional) complex
http://www.garlic.com/~lynn/submisc.html#military-industrial -complex

--
virtualization experience starting Jan1968, online at home since Mar1970
Re: Predicting the future in five years as seen from 1983 [message #360157 is a reply to message #360094] Sat, 06 January 2018 04:01 Go to previous messageGo to next message
mausg is currently offline  mausg
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On 2018-01-05, Andreas Kohlbach <ank@spamfence.net> wrote:
> On Fri, 5 Jan 2018 11:30:58 -0700, Peter Flass wrote:
>>
>> JimP <solosam90@gmail.com> wrote:
>>> On Thu, 04 Jan 2018 16:55:50 -0500, Andreas Kohlbach
>>> <ank@spamfence.net> wrote:
> years is far easier to make a guess than 40 years.
>
> Since no one seems to be interested to read the article. He also
> predicted that Osborn will be one of the big hardware manufacturers in
> 1988, next to IBM. Didn't really happen. ;-)
>
>> I still don't have my flying car! We do have computers you can talk to to
>> ask questions and get answers. All we need from Star Trek now are Warp
>> Drive and Transporters.
>
> ACK. Back To The Future II from 1990 (set in 1985 though) promised us
> hover boards in 2015. Now in 2018 still not common place. Although there
> was a Canadian guy in 2015 flying over water with one he built himself, I
> have not seen them working on land. Let alone being available at shelves
> at Walmart.

Check out the stock advice in the business pages of the newspapers,
consistently wrong.



--
greymaus.ireland.ie
Just_Another_Grumpy_Old_Man
Re: Predicting the future in five years as seen from 1983 [message #360158 is a reply to message #360096] Sat, 06 January 2018 04:05 Go to previous messageGo to next message
mausg is currently offline  mausg
Messages: 2483
Registered: May 2013
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On 2018-01-05, hancock4@bbs.cpcn.com <hancock4@bbs.cpcn.com> wrote:
> On Friday, January 5, 2018 at 1:31:00 PM UTC-5, Peter Flass wrote:
>
>>> There are you tube videos where people in the 1920s, 1930s, and 1940s
>>> predict what will happen in the future... of in sequence, the 1950s,
>>> 1960s, and 1980s. I saw little semblance of what actually happened.
>>>
>>
>> I still don't have my flying car! We do have computers you can talk to to
>> ask questions and get answers. All we need from Star Trek now are Warp
>> Drive and Transporters.
>
> Yes, everything predicted flying cars.
>
> Lots of companies employ computers to answer telephone questions,
> but they don't work very well.
>
> If one takes a close look at such things, it is amazing how much
> science and technology has developed, yet it is also amazing
> how much cannot be done.
>
> Likewise with medicine. They know and can do an incredible amount
> of stuff. Yet there are still great limits--plenty of people
> still die at young ages.
>
>

On predictions, there is a joke going about self-driving cars, man wakes
up and Has a message on his mobile, "I'e had enough, I'm leaving"

--
greymaus.ireland.ie
Just_Another_Grumpy_Old_Man
Re: Predicting the future in five years as seen from 1983 [message #360159 is a reply to message #360119] Sat, 06 January 2018 04:06 Go to previous messageGo to previous message
Ahem A Rivet's Shot is currently offline  Ahem A Rivet's Shot
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On Fri, 5 Jan 2018 15:43:34 -0700
Peter Flass <peter_flass@yahoo.com> wrote:

> Ahem A Rivet's Shot <steveo@eircom.net> wrote:
>> On Fri, 5 Jan 2018 11:30:58 -0700
>> Peter Flass <peter_flass@yahoo.com> wrote:
>>
>>> I still don't have my flying car!
>>
>> But autonomous flying taxis are being tested.
>>
>>> We do have computers you can talk to to
>>> ask questions and get answers. All we need from Star Trek now are Warp
>>> Drive and Transporters.
>>
>> I'd swap both of those for replicators.
>>
>
> 3-D printers. I don't think they ever "explained" how replicators worked,
> so 3-D printers are a good analog.

That'll do when I can get one that can handle things like "Tea, Earl
Grey, hot" including the bone china cup (or good imitation) and deliver it
in a few seconds.

The "Laura S" food synthesizer from sci.nanotech discussions many
years ago would do.

--
Steve O'Hara-Smith | Directable Mirror Arrays
C:\>WIN | A better way to focus the sun
The computer obeys and wins. | licences available see
You lose and Bill collects. | http://www.sohara.org/
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